I. Unseasonably cool weather dominates the area to open the period with a late warming trend.
II. Widespread dry conditions persist through the upcoming week.
Between the cool pattern to open the period and warmth to end, temperatures will balance out very close to “average” for the period as a whole.
The forecast period will run much drier than normal from the Plains and points east. The one exception? Along the Carolina coast, thanks to a stalled cold front.
We’re only forecasting 0.10″ to 0.25″ over the upcoming 7-day period across central Indiana.
Forecast Period: 06.13.20 through 06.20.20
A very quiet weather pattern is ahead through the forecast period. A weak disturbance will move southeast this morning across the region. While northern parts of the state picked up measurable rainfall this morning, most of this will scoot east of immediate central Indiana. This system will also serve to reinforce the cool pattern in place into early parts of next week. In fact, overnight lows tonight will fall into the 40s as far south as central Indiana. Anyone else craving fall?! The pattern beyond will feature a warming trend along with continued dry weather. Heat and humidity will build in earnest late in the period along with an opportunity for scattered showers and thunderstorms next weekend ahead of an approaching cold front. Between now and then, enjoy the quiet conditions.
The balance of the upcoming 7-10 days will feature bone dry conditions across central Indiana. A fast moving disturbance will drop southeast Saturday and could spawn a scattered shower across central Indiana, but we believe the more concentrated rain activity will remain to our east and southwest. If you do see a Saturday shower, count yourself lucky! This disturbance and associated cold front will serve to reinforce the dry airmass currently in place, along with bring temperatures down another couple of “notches” for the weekend (wouldn’t be surprised if some outlying areas get into the 40s Sunday or Monday mornings).
As we look ahead, a ridge of high pressure will dominate next week’s weather pattern. An extended stretch of dry (pleasant humidity levels), sunny days can be expected with a slow warming trend.
A ridge of high pressure will dominate our weather pattern next week as a “cut off” low tracks into the Southeast and Carolinas. The end result will be an extended period of dry weather for our region.
Things begin to get a little more “murky” late next week as forecast model solutions differ significantly. The new GFS forecast model drives a cold front into the Ohio Valley before stalling out as multiple disturbances ride along the boundary. This would lead to needed rain (and potentially heavy rain at that) late next week into next weekend. Meanwhile, the European model isn’t nearly as excited about this wet weather potential. The reality likely lies somewhere in between and we’ll trend our forecast wetter late week, but hold on the heavy rain threat for now. Stay tuned.
With that said, we do believe (given the pattern drivers discussed below) that the wetter trends shown on the GFS ensemble data in the Week 2 (and beyond) time frame has validity.
Precipitation anomalies Days 6-12
Precipitation anomalies Days 10-16
The latest JMA Weekly data also shows a similar wet idea during this time period.
As we look at the PNA and EPO, the transition in both teleconnections next week do give credence to the wetter them shown above during the said period.
Additionally, the positive PNA (image 1 above) and negative EPO (image 2 above) argue for the possibility of another period of cool weather to wrap up the month. This would come after transitional heat late next week.
The GEFS is cooler than the European during this time frame. Given the above, it wouldn’t surprise us if the Euro is forced to cool as we get closer to this period.
We’re undoubtedly entering into a critical time frame for the remainder of the summer. The upcoming couple of weeks will go a long way in determining the balance of the rest of this season. Despite the short-term dry pattern, we do believe (at least locally), rain will return before things get out of hand. The same may not be able to be said just to our west. It’s there (more from the Rockies into the Plains) where we think July heat will build in more significant fashion with the drier soils.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/12/long-range-update-timing-out-when-the-dry-pattern-breaks-down-2nd-half-of-summer-chatter/
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/09/video-details-on-the-severe-threat-this-afternoon-evening-turning-much-cooler-and-drier-late-week/
There are really two big topics to discuss this evening, including the immediate term being dominated by Cristobal’s remnants and a change of guard at the driver’s seat in the…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/08/dealing-with-outer-bands-of-cristobals-remnants-tomorrow-different-long-range-pattern-driver-from-what-weve-known/
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Tropical Storm Cristobal made landfall along the southeast LA coastline just after 6p eastern time as a 50 MPH storm. The upcoming 48-72 hours will feature Cristobal moving north and impacting the MS Valley, Midwest, and Great Lakes region. This evening we wanted to spend a bit more time focusing on the impacts of Cristobal’s remnants across central Indiana.
Monday- Dry conditions will persist along with plentiful sunshine and warm temperatures. We anticipate highs will top out in the middle to upper 80s with a partly cloudy sky that will likely feature increased mid-high level cloudiness across southwestern IN late day. This is in association with the expanding high level cloud canopy associated with Cristobal. An easterly flow will maintain low dew points and a very refreshing airmass to open the week (stark contrast compared to what awaits Tuesday).
Tuesday- Cristobal’s remnant circulation will continue to track north up the MS River Valley. Indiana will begin to experience some of the outer bands by the afternoon and evening hours. While the remnant circulation will remain well to our west (along with the more concentrated, heavy rain), these outer rain bands will be capable of producing torrential rain and could also produce a couple of quick, spin-up tornadoes (not uncommon with landfalling tropical systems). It’ll be important to remain weather-aware across the entire state Tuesday (more specifically during the afternoon and early evening across central Indiana). Tuesday will, by far, be the hottest day over the upcoming (10) days, including highs flirting with 90º and dews in the lower to middle 70s. Can you say “tropical?!”
While Cristobal’s remnant circulation will remain well west of Indiana, we’ll take a “glancing blow” Tuesday into Wednesday with better rain chances and a very humid regime.
Wednesday- The day will start very humid as the rich, tropical moisture continues to take up residence across the western Ohio Valley, but changes loom. We can expect a “smattering” of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the 1st of 2 frontal boundaries that will sweep through the region during the 2nd half of the week. MUCH LESS HUMID air will sweep into the area Wednesday evening. This will be a precursor to a much less humid and cooler weekend ahead.
How Much Rain Are We Talking? As you can see, the bulk of the heavy rain will remain well to our west and closer to the immediate remnant circulation of Cristobal. We expect rainfall amounts between 0.25″ and 0.50″ in the outer rain bands across central Indiana Tuesday into Wednesday.
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/07/video-tracking-cristobals-remnant-moisture-two-late-week-cold-fronts-usher-in-a-refreshing-feel/
II. Strong cold front delivers unseasonably cool close to the week
A warm open to the forecast period will transition much cooler to close the week. All-in-all, things will “balance out” close to average, locally.
Overall, it’s a dry pattern from the Plains into the East. The one exception? Where Cristobal’s remnants track and Northwest.
The heavy, tropical moisture associated with Cristobal is still expected to remain to our west. Wednesday will likely be our wettest day of the period which should feature 0.25″ to 0.75″ amounts over the upcoming 7-days.
Forecast Period: 06.06.20 through 06.13.20
Though it’ll still be a warm weekend, less humid air will be welcomed with open arms. Dry conditions will prevail through the weekend and as we open up the new work week, including plentiful sunshine. All eyes through the weekend will be on the Gulf of Mexico and Tropical Storm Cristobal. Cristobal will slowly strengthen over the next 24-36 hours before making landfall as a strong tropical storm along the southeast LA coastline. While we still don’t think we’ll be directly impacted by Cristobal’s remnants (those will track through the MS Valley and into the Upper Midwest), the fetch off the Gulf Coast directly ahead of a midweek cold front will lead to better chances of rain late Tuesday into Wednesday. That aforementioned cold front will be the first of two fronts to sweep the region before week’s end. The second front that blows through Friday will usher in a fall-like airmass next weekend.
