Dec 13
After a dry and cold Saturday, weather will begin to deteriorate Sunday evening. We think snow will overspread central Indiana Sunday evening into Sunday night before transitioning to a wintry…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/snow-arrives-sunday-evening-latest-thoughts-on-monday-and-beyond/
Dec 13
Type: Impactful Winter Weather
What: Accumulating snow; mixed wintry precipitation
When: Sunday evening through Monday
Temperatures: Lower to middle 30s
Wind: East 10 to 15 MPH, shifting to the north Monday night with gusts to 25 MPH
Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal
We continue to closely monitor the potential of an impactful winter weather maker Sunday evening through Monday. Initially, we think “overrunning” precipitation will overspread central Indiana Sunday afternoon and evening. This should fall in the form of snow for most. As the surface low draws closer, precipitation will increase in intensity Sunday night into the day Monday. The all-important track of the surface low appears to take a path from western Arkansas Sunday night, along the Ohio River Monday morning and into western Pennsylvania by Monday night. This is a favorable track for accumulating snow across portions of the state. The map above features our “ridiculously” early idea on best chances where the heavier snowfall will occur (shoveable totals seem like a good bet for places in and around Indianapolis and points north). Downstate, enough warmer air should get pulled into the system for a time Sunday night into Monday morning that a wintry mix of precipitation (sleet, snow, and rain) is expected to cut down snowfall totals. As the storm pulls up to our northeast, gusty northerly winds will develop with lingering snow showers in Monday night, along with colder conditions.
We’ll have an updated video post later this evening and will keep close eyes on data not only today, but straight through the weekend.
Confidence: Medium-High
Next Update: This evening (Video)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-impactful-winter-weather-event-sunday-evening-through-monday/
Dec 12
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-ready-for-wintry-fun-and-games/
Dec 12
Through the 11th, December is running 1.6° above normal in Indianapolis. This milder than normal theme is rather widespread so far this month through the Lower 48.
As we look ahead, there are continued reasons to believe the pattern will begin to go through more of a transition towards an ultimately more sustained cold pattern as January evolves. We think that transition really started early this week and will feature plenty of “back and forth” over the the next 2-3 weeks before settling into the more sustained cold regime. There will be storms and “rumors of storms” that we’ll have to track through the transitional period, including smack-dab in the heart of the holiday season this year.
The latest JMA Weeklies (update each Thursday morning) shows this “fight” over the next 1-3 weeks.
Without blocking in place, the way the JMA Weeklies handle the pattern is likely, but the Weeks 2-3 time period does have a chance to offer up a headache or two as the models may begin to adjust to an increasingly “blocky” time of things.
There are at least “hints” that some of the teleconnections that would promote more of a blocky pattern are beginning to align. We caution though that this does take time for these feature to mature and begin to ultimately have a greater impact on our pattern.
As we revisit the latest SST configuration, there’s continued reason to be very excited about this winter if you’re a fan of colder and snowier than normal conditions. We always knew December would be the tough month before the pattern settles into the mean winter pattern late December into March. Now, time to just sit back and watch things unfold. 🙂
Now, back to the short-term. Despite forecast models very much still in (2) separate worlds, we’ve dug into analogs and looked through countless similar patterns from the past. As model consensus develops (hopefully sooner rather than later), let’s see if they (speaking specifically to the GFS and European) converge on this similar solution for best chances of accumulating snow:
We still have many details to sort through and we caution that this system is far from being etched in stone. You’ll want to keep close tabs on latest developments over the next couple of days. With that said, we’re looking for potential wintry impacts here across central Indiana beginning Sunday night and continuing through Monday.
This evening’s video update will focus solely on the Sunday-Monday system, including the latest model developments from 12z. Have a great Thursday!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/latest-thoughts-on-early-next-week-long-range-update-into-early-jan/
Dec 11
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/several-opportunities-for-wintry-weather-over-the-next-couple-of-weeks-but-many-details-to-sort-through/