The upcoming couple of weeks sure will feel like summer has arrived. After “pulling teeth” to get any sort of sustained warmth, the flip to warm/ hot and humid conditions is upon us.
This kind of pattern will keep heaviest rain to our northwest, but that’s not to say we won’t deal with storm complexes from time to time that will be plenty capable of depositing a quick hefty amount of water in a short period (case in point yesterday evening).
As we look ahead, the MJO continues to look like it’ll roll right into Phase 1 as we get set to close May and open June. This should ultimately mean the eastern ridge is replaced with more troughiness (may be tough to erode the southeastern ridge- where anomalous heat will likely continue for the foreseeable future) and an associated cooler pattern as we move towards early-June across our region.
As this transition takes shape, the heaviest precipitation totals will likely shift east, including more of our immediate region, as we progress through late-May and into early June. The modeling sees this taking shape nicely.
Though we’ll likely back away from the anomalous warmth and replace things will cooler air as we move into the half-way point of the year, the same ole song and dance is expected from a precipitation perspective: wetter than average, and, at times, excessively so…