Our longstanding call has been for the period of early to mid-February to feature a “transitional” pattern before locking into one last cold, stormy period for the winter during the 2/18 through 3/10 time frame. The reasoning behind this idea has been stated multiple times in previous updates.
However, there’s no denying that today’s 12z ensemble update (both from the GEFS and EPS) has rattled us a bit with that idea. The GEFS and EPS are in very good agreement at 500mb:
This is in the face of Phases 8 and 1 from an MJO perspective:
Furthermore, the sudden negative “jolt” in the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) also favors a significant period of cold, stormy weather, locally:
Please understand this isn’t us changing our ongoing forecast that’s out there, but instead making sure we’re presenting a 100% transparent idea from two of the most highly respected ensemble products out there (that have been generating a lot of attention today with this output). We prefer to give it another few days before altering our medium and longer term forecast to see if any sort of consistency can develop.
At the end of the day, this may be a situation where the resistance from the SE ridge puts up enough of a fight to lead to a lack of “suppression” from the hyperactive storm track currently in place, and instead continuing the busy storm track into the TN and Ohio Valley regions as cold air presses.
Rest assured, you’ll be the first to know if a wholesale medium to long range forecast change is required here. Stay tuned.