After a month-to-date temperature anomaly map that looks like this:
…and a year-to-date that looks like this:
…sustained warmth is music to the ears of many Hoosiers! Thankfully, the balance of the upcoming (10) days will feature warmer than average conditions, as illustrated by the latest European ensemble data.
This will include multiple days with high temperatures rising into the 80s over the upcoming 10-day stretch (Tuesday and Wednesday and again next Monday through Wednesday).
As for storm chances, dry times will continue to dominate Tuesday with plentiful sunshine. Clouds will begin to increase Wednesday and we can’t rule out an afternoon shower, but most should still remain dry. Thursday and Friday will offer up the best chances of getting wet, including embedded thunder.
As for rainfall totals, it still appears widespread amounts will check-in in the half inch to one inch range, but a few locally heavier amounts can be expected.
Models continue to dry us out in time for the weekend and all of those important Cinco de Mayo/ Derby plans. An increasingly sunny sky will be with us along with highs in the middle 70s Saturday afternoon! Can you say “perfection?”
Looking ahead, I’m not sold we won’t have to deal with showers Sunday as a disturbance moves nearby (low confidence forecast from this distance). More widespread showers and thunderstorms will arrive on the scene late next week…
We also note the majority of longer range guidance trending warmer for May. We’ll have some updated thoughts on that later this week!
II. High pressure will build in for the second half of the weekend and remain in control of our weather through the first half of the work week. Dry conditions will remain along with a significant warming trend.
III. We’ll actually go above normal (for a change) through the early and middle parts of next week, including highs around 80° by Tuesday!
IV. Unsettled weather returns for the second half of the work week. Models differ on rainfall totals, but we’ll include mention of 7-day totals in the 0.75″ to 1.25″ range- most of which falls Thursday and Friday.
V. Cooler than normal temperatures will return for Week 2 so be sure to enjoy the warmth while we have it next week.
Temperatures will remain cooler than average, but that late-April sun will feel mighty nice, especially after a couple days of “showery” overcast and 50s.
High pressure will quickly build in thereafter and lead to the best weather weekend so far this spring. Saturday and Sunday should feature plentiful sunshine both days. Morning lows will be chilly (upper 30s to lower 40s for most), but daytime highs will zoom into the 60s both days.
As we look ahead, warmth will continue to build as we open May. Lower 80s seem to be a good bet as we move into next week, but before we get into sustained warmth, another “setback” or two seems to be a good bet. We note the EPS showing this nicely as cooler anomalies return by Week 2.
It remains a drier than overall pattern over the upcoming couple weeks. The next storm of any significance is slated for an arrival late next week (Thursday time frame).
After a chilly work week (relative to average), 60s will return this weekend and temperatures will zip into the lower and middle 70s early next week, before approaching 80° by the middle of next week.
Despite the showers that will impact central Indiana today, it’s mostly a dry pattern over the upcoming 10-day period. Additional rain chances will continue Tuesday (scattered, nuisance-level) and with a frontal passage Friday. With that said, 10-day rainfall will only run between one half and three quarters of an inch for most of the region.