March 2017 archive

Active Times In The Forecast Office…

Highlights:

  • Wet, chilly close to the work week
  • Dry weekend
  • Couple storms and turning colder late next week

Busy Weather Pattern Continues…An area of low pressure is swirling overhead this morning and will help promote periods of showers into the early afternoon before drier air begins to push in.  Perhaps the bigger story will be falling daytime temperatures.  By the evening rush, most neighborhoods should be deep into the 40s with a gusty northerly breeze at times.

We still forecast a dry weekend as high pressure builds in.  Early fog and clouds will be slow to give way to sunshine Saturday, but by afternoon and evening we should see some breaks in the cloud cover.  We’ll label Saturday as “mostly cloudy” before more in the way of sunshine works in for the second half of the weekend.

The dry times won’t last, unfortunately, and another storm system promises showers and thunderstorms as early as Monday.  This will then be followed by a bigger storm the middle of the week that will, once again, lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms.  The other point we want to drive home for late next week will be an increasingly chilly regime.  Temperatures will fall Thursday and even though it’s beyond the current forecast period, sub-freezing lows are a good bet next weekend.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 2.00″ – 2.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/31/active-times-in-the-forecast-office/

Thursday Morning Rambles…

1.)  Morning showers and thunderstorms continue to impact north-central Indiana this morning and given the look to downstream trends on radar and satellite, it would seem like it’s going to be tough to get into any sort of significant sunshine this afternoon. This is great news as it’ll limit severe potential.  That said, we still can’t rule out a severe thunderstorm this evening with large hail and damaging straight line winds of greatest concern.  The updated (9a eastern) outlook from the Storm Prediction Center continues the “enhanced risk” for the southern half of Indiana.

2.)  We bracket the hours of 2p-8p (couple hours earlier from yesterday’s thinking) as the period of potential most widespread strong to severe thunderstorms across central Indiana, and the HRRR forecast radar shows what the radar may look like this evening. Have a means of getting the latest warnings.

3.)  Scattered showers will continue into Friday morning before drier air arrives during the evening hours.

4.)  This drier trend Friday PM is one that will continue into the weekend.  High pressure will supply mostly dry weather through the entire weekend (small shower chances return Sunday evening), including sunshine.

5.)  Another active period of weather awaits next week, including multiple rain chances early and late week.  The latter storm looks to be the bigger event with heavy rain and thunderstorm potential Wednesday into Thursday.  7-day rain numbers check in between 1.5″-2″ with locally heavier amounts.

6.)  The story becomes a chilly one next weekend, and models suggest central Indiana may be dealing with frost and freeze conditions by next Saturday or Sunday morning.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/30/thursday-morning-rambles-2/

Timing Thursday Storms…

Happy Wednesday!  Today’s sunshine sure was nice and I hope you had an opportunity to get outside and enjoy it.  Unfortunately, the pleasant weather won’t last as a storm system begins to impact central Indiana as early as the overnight period.  Clouds will continue to thicken tonight and showers and thunderstorms (non-severe) will arrive during the predawn hours.

We note short-term, high resolution, forecast radar data brings the initial wave of thunderstorms through the city during the 2a-3a time frame early Thursday morning.

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will likely impact central Indiana through the mid and late morning hours Thursday.

As we press into the early afternoon hours, model data suggests we see a “lull” in the stormy weather and potentially even a few breaks in the cloud cover.  This would serve to “up the ante” in regards to the prospects of severe weather potential Thursday afternoon, particularly mid and late afternoon through the evening hours.  Accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight central Indiana for the risk of severe weather Thursday.

In fact, given a look at the most recent data, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the “enhanced” risk area expand further north in future updates.  This would also include all modes of severe weather (large hail, damaging straight line winds, and potentially a tornado). As things stand this evening, we bracket the hours of 4p and 10p Thursday for the greatest potential of severe weather.

Forecast radar paints a stormy picture Thursday evening and, as mentioned above, a few of these storms could become severe.

As we push into the overnight hours Thursday into Friday, unsettled weather will continue, but we’ll get rid of the severe potential.  “Nuisance” type showers will continue into the first half of Friday before drier air arrives Friday afternoon and evening.  This drier theme will settle in for the weekend and provide a very pleasant open to April.

Ensure you remain weather-aware Thursday and have a means of getting the latest warnings.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/29/timing-thursday-storms/

Wet Close To The Work Week, But A Dry Weekend Is Ahead…

Highlights:

  • Next weather maker arrives to close the work week
  • Dry weekend coming
  • Next storm system on deck

Rain Gear Needed To Close The Work Week…Wednesday will dawn with low clouds and areas of fog in spots, but that should diminish and possibly give way to a couple looks of the sunshine before our next storm system quickly approaches.  If we see any sun Wednesday it won’t last long, as clouds will once again be on the increase Wednesday afternoon with a scattered shower possible.  Rain coverage will become more widespread Thursday, and we’ll introduce a rumble of thunder into the forecast Thursday afternoon/ evening.  Showers will continue Friday before scattering Friday afternoon.

The decreasing Friday afternoon rain chances signals a drier change that we’ll enjoy for the weekend (perfect timing)!  High pressure will build into the region and support dry conditions.  The temperature forecast is a bit tricky Saturday.  We’re banking on a mostly cloudy sky that would limit highs into the middle 50s.  Should we see more in the way of sunshine than currently expected, highs would zoom close to 60° Saturday.  Dry conditions remain Sunday.

Our next storm system will result in increasing rain and storm coverage Monday afternoon, continuing into the day on Tuesday.  If we look just beyond the forecast period, a shot of unseasonably cold air could send temperatures to sub-freezing levels by the latter parts of next week…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall:  1.00″ – 1.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/28/wet-close-to-the-work-week-but-a-dry-weekend-is-ahead/

Looking Ahead Into Early April…

Month-to-date, Indianapolis is running near seasonal norms from a temperature standpoint (0.50° above normal).  Chill has dominated the northern tier and eastern third of the country.

Precipitation is running above normal, locally, to the tune of nearly 1″ month-to-date.  Heaviest rains have fallen across southeastern Indiana over the past (30) days.

A look at precipitation anomalies across the mid west, month-to-date:

As we progress through the upcoming (10) days, a transient weather pattern will persist.  This will keep forecasters busy, but it should also be stressed it’s not all a “doom and gloom” type pattern, either.  There will be plenty of dry time over the upcoming period, including drier conditions building in tomorrow (Tuesday) into a good chunk of Wednesday.

By Wednesday night/ Thursday morning, shower chances will begin to increase and that will set the stage for a wet close to the work week as numerous showers and embedded thunder move across the region Thursday into Friday.  This is courtesy of a storm system “bowling” through to our south.  This won’t be a severe weather maker for our neck of the woods, but will serve to create a rather damp and gloomy regime during the aforementioned period.

However, timing is our friend this go around as upper ridging develops over the upcoming weekend.  Not only will we dry out, but we’ll also enjoy increasing sunshine as the weekend progresses.

That said, looking further down the pipe line, another (potentially more significant) storm system looms during the 8-10 day period.  This would fall in the April 3rd-4th time frame.  From this distance, models are bullish on hefty rainfall totals with this storm system and we’ll keep a close eye on things as time draws closer.

Speaking of April, our overall thoughts for the fourth month of the year (where does time go?) would imply a warmer than average month and active (wetter than average).  Relative to average, we feel we still may have some chill to traverse early month, but there’s also some indication we could bust into an early summer-like feel mid and late month.  With the mean trough position west and ridging east, we’ll have to also be mindful for the potential of an active severe weather month- especially mid and late month.  Overall, the CanSIPS idea below is one we would agree with from a mean 500mb perspective.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/27/looking-ahead-into-early-april/

Couple Storm Systems To Deal With Before A Pleasant Weekend…

Highlights:

  • Couple rounds of rain this week
  • Periods of dry weather in between
  • Nice weekend ahead

Not A Bad Week…The work week is off to a dry start, but a fast-moving storm system promises to trigger showers later this afternoon into the evening hours across central Indiana, and perhaps some stronger thunderstorms across southern Indiana.  With this being a quick moving storm, dry conditions will return as early as tomorrow.  Dry conditions remain Wednesday with periods of sunshine and pleasantly mild temperatures.

Another storm system will deliver showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday.  Temperatures will remain mild through Thursday, but Friday will feature cooler conditions (near seasonal norms).  This shouldn’t be a particularly heavy rain maker, but expect wet times Thursday into Friday.

The good news in this forecast is the timing between storm systems should allow for a beautiful weekend ahead.  We forecast sunshine to return and while it’ll be a touch cooler, that high early April sun angle will provide for a pleasant feel.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/27/couple-storm-systems-to-deal-with-before-a-pleasant-weekend/

Rain Chances Go Up Late…

Highlights:

  • Shower and t-storm chances increase late
  • Another storm system arrives Monday afternoon
  • Late-week questions

Active Period…Most of Saturday across central Indiana will feature dry conditions.  It’s not until we get to Saturday evening and into the overnight that shower and thunderstorm coverage will begin to really increase in earnest.  Periods of showers continue Sunday (especially the first of the day day).

A dry start to Monday will give way to increasing cloudiness with showers and thunderstorms arriving by the afternoon and evening hours.  This fast-moving area of low pressure will then depart as quickly as it arrives and leave us with dry conditions Tuesday into Wednesday.

We’re then left with late-week questions.  The GFS is significantly cooler than the European and we’ll craft this portion of the forecast with a blend- leaning more in the direction of the warmer European solution.  Showers and thunderstorms are likely Thursday into Friday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/25/rain-chances-go-up-late/

Turning Warmer, But Unsettled…

Highlights:

  • Another cold morning
  • Turning unsettled
  • Warmer heading into early next week

Warmer, But Rain Chances Return…Before we enjoy the warmer temperatures to close the week, we have one more very cold morning to go through.  Many central Indiana neighborhoods are once again starting the day in the mid to upper 20s.  Though we’ll add more clouds to our Thursday forecast (compared to all of that Wednesday sunshine), it won’t prevent temperatures from moderating close to seasonal levels later this afternoon.

Though we’ll mention a quick passing shower chance Friday, most of the day should be dry and the bigger story will actually be temperatures that approach 70° by the afternoon with periods of sunshine.  Sounds like a recipe for getting out of the office early and finding a local patio, huh?!

Unfortunately, shower chances will be on the uptick this weekend and while it won’t rain the entire time, really any time of the weekend is fair game for the potential of a shower or perhaps a thunderstorm.  As of now, best shower coverage should be Sunday.

Shower and thunderstorms chances continue early next week (Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning) before drier air and slightly cooler temperatures return the middle of next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/23/turning-warmer-but-unsettled/

Wednesday Morning Rambles…

1.)  Temperatures this morning are running much colder than this time 24 hours ago.  Many central IN neighborhoods are waking up to temperatures in the middle to upper 20s.

2.)  Speaking of cold, to-date, March is running slightly colder than average (by 1.1°).  Note the spring and summer-like warmth across the SW.  “Pieces” of that warmth will eject northeast in modified fashion late March into April.

3.)  High pressure will supply a dry, but cold Wednesday.  Highs will run close to 10° below average (lower 40s), but at least we’ll enjoy the sun!

4.)  Temperatures will begin to warm as we progress through the latter portions of the week.  We’ll be near seasonal norms Thursday (low 50s), and above normal Friday into the weekend (mid-upper 60s).  With the warmer air, rain and storm chances will also be on the increase.  As of now, we target best rain chances late Saturday into Sunday.  A couple thunderstorms are also possible.  Rainfall totals of 0.50″-1.00″ seem like a good bet with locally heavier amounts.

5.)  This is just the beginning of an active stretch of weather to wrap up the month of March.  (3) additional storms will have to be monitored next week.  Accordingly, precipitation anomalies will run above normal.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/22/wednesday-morning-rambles-7/

Bumpy Start To The Work Week…

Highlights:

  • Stormy open to the work week
  • Colder midweek
  • Storms return this weekend

Couple Rounds Of Storms Possible Today…Radar this morning is showing widespread showers and thunderstorms sinking south out of northern Indiana.  Expect to get wet in, and around, the city as the rush hour gets into full swing.  We’ll monitor this evening for the potential of another round of thunderstorms that’ll, once again, originate across northern IN before tracking southeast.  We don’t anticipate widespread severe weather with these rounds of storms, but small hail is certainly possible in some of the storms.

Tuesday will be an overall quieter day, but a cold front will pass with a shower chance Tuesday evening.  We’ll then note a northerly wind shift and a much colder air mass Tuesday night through Thursday morning.  Highs Wednesday will run 10°-15º below average.  If you’re not a fan of the cold, no need to fret as a warmer southerly flow will develop Thursday afternoon and put us in position to return to seasonable levels for highs Thursday after the chilly start.  We’ll then run much warmer than average this weekend, but it comes with a wet and stormy trade off.  Periods of heavy rain are possible Saturday into Sunday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.25″ – 1.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/20/bumpy-start-to-the-work-week/

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