February 2017 archive

Feb 24

Severe T-storms This Evening Give Way To Much Colder Air This Weekend…

Highlights:

  • Record warmth
  • Severe t-storm potential this evening
  • Scattered snow showers Saturday
  • Active pattern next week

Focused On Severe Weather This Evening…Though the day is beginning on a quiet note, we’re concerned it might not end that way, as strong to severe thunderstorms impact central Indiana this afternoon and evening.  The sunshine this morning is actually something that adds further concern for the potential of explosive thunderstorm development later today.  More specifically, we’re bracketing the hours of 4p and 10p for the likelihood of storms impacting central parts of the state (west to east), and some of these may become severe.  All modes of severe weather are in play today, including large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two.  Please have a means of getting the latest warning information and ensure you know your family’s severe plan.  Otherwise, we forecast to shatter the record high today as we zoom all the way into the middle 70s with a gusty southerly wind.

Winter will return with authority tonight and set-up a much colder weekend.  That high in the upper 40s Saturday will actually come at midnight with falling temperatures (most of the daytime hours will feature low-mid 30s with ‘chills in the 20s), windy conditions, and scattered snow showers.

A weak weather system is looking less and less impressive for the second half of the weekend, but we’ll continue to keep a chance of light rain in our forecast by evening.

Better rain chances will begin to ramp up Monday evening and become widespread Tuesday, including the possibility of thunderstorms, as well.  The second half of next week will trend colder…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Trace
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/severe-t-storms-this-evening-give-way-to-much-colder-air-this-weekend/

Feb 23

Don’t Get Lulled To Sleep…

Overall, as mild as this winter has been (particularly on the snow front), it’s easy to think we’re done with wintry precipitation- especially after this stretch of 60°+ weather.  That said, we still have to get through March, and as long-time Midwesterners know, the third month of the year can yield some wild swings, including late season wintry events.  Yes, including even the mild winters of the past…

Modeling is beginning to show at least a shift towards unseasonably cold conditions as we progress through the first couple of weeks of March.  In the face of the prolonged stretch of April-like warmth of late, this will be a shock in and of itself.


Longer-term indications would suggest the period of chilly, wintry-like, air has a window to take over, but the window is small.  Trends would seem to yield warmer solutions once past mid-month, with perhaps a “stick and hold” spring regime taking over.

Before that, we have a couple of weeks in front of us to open March that won’t only provide out-of-season cold, but we must also pay close attention to the potential of northwest flow clipper systems.  There’s no reason to get detailed and specific from this distance, but the pattern suggests we need to be on the look-out for the potential of one or two snow makers as we move through the first couple weeks of the month.  March clippers can be a headache as the March warmth south of the track of the system can help add energy and turn a weak event into an impactful snow event to the north of the low’s track.  Hoosiers don’t have to be reminded how significant March clippers can be at times.  Is this the year we have to deal with one or two of these stronger clippers?  Wouldn’t it be ironic after such a mild winter thus far?  Don’t let Mother Nature “lull” you to sleep…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/dont-get-lulled-to-sleep/

Feb 23

Looking At Friday’s Severe Set-Up…

An updated 7-day forecast will hit later today.  This morning we wanted to take the time to dig in a little deeper on Friday’s severe weather threat.

Severe Weather Outlook:

This morning the latest update from the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has expanded the ‘Enhanced Risk’ of severe weather Friday.  This includes all of central Indiana.

Summary:

A sub 1000 mb surface low pressure system will track northeast from northern MO (Friday morning) to central MI (Saturday morning).  Ahead of this, a warm front will lift north through central IN and into lower MI Friday afternoon.  A strong cold front will be located near the MS River Friday morning and barrel eastward, sweeping the state Friday night.

Unseasonably warm and moist air will be drawn northward and encompass the entire region Friday.  Forecast highs should break records tomorrow and be in the lower-middle 70s for most of the region (thinking we see plentiful sunshine during the daytime hours).  Dew points will near 60°. Considering this is late February, those are impressive ingredients coming into play.  The added sunshine tomorrow is actually a bad thing as it will add “fuel to the fire,” so to speak, and help play a role in potentially explosive thunderstorm development Friday evening.

Forecast dew points will reach around 60 degrees across the region Friday afternoon.

Surface-based CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) is modeled to reach between 1200-1600 J/kg Friday evening across the region.

Threats and Timing:

Most of Friday is going to be quiet, but it’s as we move into Friday afternoon and evening that we’ll need to keep close eyes to the sky and radar.  The potential exists for individual super cells to develop out ahead of an eastward-advancing line of thunderstorms Friday evening.  All modes of severe weather are possible Friday evening, including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.  As of now, we bracket the hours of 4p and 10p for the period where severe weather may be impacting portions of central IN.

As mentioned yesterday, we highly recommend reviewing your family’s severe weather safety plan and ensure weather radios are charged with warning modes “on” Friday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/looking-at-fridays-severe-set-up/

Feb 22

Active Pattern Ramping Up; Monitoring Multiple Storm Chances…

Highlights:

  • Spring-like air continues
  • Severe t-storm potential Friday PM
  • Much colder weekend
  • Another round of strong-severe storms next week?

Buckle Up For A Wild Ride…Morning fog (some very dense, especially north of the city) will burn off and give way to increasing sunshine today, along with unseasonably warm temperatures.  In fact, we’ll be near-record territory (Indy’s record high today is 70° and we forecast to tie that record this afternoon).  We’ll remain near record territory over the next couple of days, but our attention will, unfortunately, have to shift from the record warmth to strong-severe thunderstorm potential.

Most of Thursday will be dry, but a few scattered showers will likely dot the central IN landscape by the evening hours.  Similar to Thursday, most of the day Friday will also be dry.  It’s not until we head into Friday evening and night that we’re concerned for thunderstorms tracking through the state.  A few of these storms will likely reach severe levels.  Large hail and damaging winds are of greatest concern with the severe thunderstorms that develop.  The cold front will sweep the state Friday night and a midnight high Saturday morning in the upper 40s will crash (most of the daytime will feature temperatures in the 30s with wind chills in the 20s) and wind-whipped snow flurries can be expected.

A weak weather system is still expected late Sunday and could feature a light rain and snow mix (not a big deal).  What will be a bigger deal is a much stronger storm system rolling through the Mid West early next week.  Unfortunately, another round of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Trace
  • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/active-pattern-ramping-up-monitoring-multiple-storm-chances/

Feb 21

Agri-Worries: Reason To Be Concerned…

February-to-date is running significantly above average (a whopping 9°+ above average at IND).

The anomalous warmth is impressive enough, but perhaps the most impressive is the duration of the unseasonably warm, April-like, warmth.  By the time all is said and done (Friday night), many communities will set multiple new records for so many consecutive days of 60°+ level warmth in the month of February.  That doesn’t set well for spring vegetation.  Given the look to the overall pattern in the weeks ahead, it’s hard to deny the glaring signs for additional well above normal warmth (speaking in “overall” terms).  Accordingly, vegetation will likely continue to sprout and bloom early with such a pattern- even as far north as here in central IN.

That said, even in the warmest of patterns, “jabs” of late-season arctic air can make it’s presence felt.  Despite our thoughts on being finished with sustained wintry conditions, we’re far from finished with cold “jabs.”  With spring vegetation likely to be well ahead of schedule, concerns are valid for potential damage to early season growth as we move forward over the coming weeks.

Let’s remember, on average, it’s not until we get to mid and late April before we can signal the “all clear” on the last 32° freeze.  Still have a long way to go, friends…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/agri-worries-reason-to-be-concerned/