Category: Windy

Feb 09

Winter’s Back!

Screen Shot 2015-02-09 at 8.09.10 AMLots Of Winter Ahead…After a brief weekend thaw, winter’s set to roar back with authority this week.  Morning freezing drizzle and freezing fog should diminish and give way to a mostly cloudy day.  It’ll be much colder than what we enjoyed over the weekend as temperatures hold nearly steady through the day.

Sunshine returns briefly Tuesday, but another fast-moving weather disturbance will bring a light rain shower Wednesday.  As a shot of arctic air drills in here Wednesday night and Thursday, snow showers will blow into town with gusty winds.

A second and even more intense surge of bitter arctic air will pour south Saturday into Sunday.  Dangerously cold air will be accompanied with this surge, including below zero wind chills and more snow showers.

We’re eyeing early next week for the opportunity of a more widespread winter event.  Stay tuned…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: Less than 0.10″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 1″ – 2″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/winters-back/

Feb 03

Decent Day Today; Snowy Wednesday Afternoon Ahead

Screen Shot 2015-02-03 at 8.02.05 AMNot A Bad Day Today; Snow Event Wednesday…After a cold start today, temperatures will moderate into the lower to middle 30s this afternoon.  We’ll be in a weak southerly air flow this afternoon as a disturbance tracks to our north.

The big focus of this forecast package has to do with Wednesday. We forecast a quiet start to the day, but clouds will quickly lower and thicken and widespread snow, briefly heavy, will overspread all of the region tomorrow afternoon.  This will be a dry, powdery snow as all of the snow will fall behind an arctic boundary that will slip through the region.  As of now we forecast 2″-3″ of snow tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening.  Strong and gusty north winds will lead to blowing and drifting issues Wednesday evening.  All in all, expect the Wednesday evening rush to be impacted.  Frigid air will settle over the region by Thursday morning with dry conditions returning.

Temperatures will slowly moderate briefly out ahead of our next weekend weather maker.  Keep an eye on Sunday-Monday as that will be our next opportunity for accumulating wintry precipitation.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 2″ – 4″
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/decent-day-today-snowy-wednesday-afternoon-ahead/

Feb 02

Accumulating Snow Potential Wednesday Evening; Model Madness This Weekend…

Models are handling the arctic front and associated wave differently from one another, but we tend to favor more of a GEM/ European blend.  As it is, even the GFS is beginning to see the snow threat.  The NAM (below) sees snow overspreading the region Wednesday afternoon and evening.

hires_ref_indy_55This is a different set-up than anything we’ve seen this winter as the majority of precipitation develops on the backside of the frontal boundary.  An “ana front” is one that features clouds and precipitation developing behind the frontal system.  The air behind this boundary will be of arctic origin and lead to very high snow ratios- meaning it won’t take much moisture to “fluff” up a few inches of snow across the region.  Strong and gusty winds will also develop Wednesday night and temperatures will plummet (single digits or below zero Thursday morning).  Blowing and drifting will be a concern.  Stay tuned as we continue to look over the data.

The other item on the agenda has to do with Sunday.  Once again we’ve got another major model battle on our hands.  Taken verbatim, the GFS would imply a relatively boring weather weekend with some clouds and light rain (possibly ending as light snow Saturday night into Sunday).  On the other hand, the European model implies a winter storm threat for the Ohio Valley Sunday….

Needless to say, there’s a lot going on and despite the headaches of last weekend, we may be back in a similar position for the upcoming weekend.  And you thought you wanted this job?! 🙂

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/accumulating-snow-potential-wednesday-evening-model-madness-this-weekend/

Feb 02

Cold Start To The Work Week; Watching Wednesday…

Screen Shot 2015-02-02 at 7.46.45 AMBundle Up…Snow showers and gusty winds are combining with refreezing of snow and moisture on roadways to create slick travel this Monday morning.  Leave extra time on your way to work and school this morning and travel safely.  Additionally, gusty northwest winds are pushing wind chill values into the subzero ranks.  As we progress through the day we should see increasing sunshine, but it’ll remain frigid.

Our next storm system of interest arrives by the middle of the week.  Forecast models differ on the timing and amount of moisture with this next storm, but there’s the chance of accumulating snow arriving Wednesday.  This would be in advance of a quick-hitting pop of arctic air.  We’ll keep a close eye on things.

The active pattern remains into the upcoming weekend as increasing clouds give way to showers Saturday and a transition to more a of wintry mix Sunday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 1″ – 2″
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″ – 0.20″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/cold-start-to-the-work-week-watching-wednesday/

Jan 31

Crippling Snow Storm For Some; Just Wet For Others.

An incredibly difficult and challenging forecast is in store for central Indiana over the course of the next 24-36 hours.  I want to get out front with this right from the get go: bust potential is high with this type set-up, as a jog 10-20 miles north or south of the surface low will mean the difference between half a foot of snow and plain cold rain.  As it stands now, and after careful consideration of every piece of data available, here’s our updated snowfall map:

SnowfallMap2115V2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I still am not sure any one piece of data is handling the interaction between the arctic high to the north and the developing low to our southwest “perfectly.”  As such, additional fine tuning will have to take place tonight.  That arctic high is powerful at nearly 1045mb.  From a meteorological standpoint, it’ll be a fascinating battle watching the fight play out.

As you can see, we’re going to be looking at a very tight thermal gradient and it, unfortunately, appears to set itself up directly over the I-70 corridor.  Precipitation type and amounts are the biggest challenge within the I-70 corridor.  Further north, confidence increases rather significantly for a crippling snow storm.  For central Indiana, this will be a very wet and heavy snow event before ending as a drier, powdery snow on the back end.  As winds increase Sunday afternoon/ evening, the heavy “paste” like snow won’t blow around as easily as it would if it was drier.  Further north the snow consistency will be drier and blowing and drifting will be severe (in the 8″-12″+ zone).

In the shorter-term, rain and a wintry mix will arrive into the region as early as early as 6-7 o’clock.

Stay tuned.  Another post will hit here late tonight (midnight-ish).  In the meantime, we’ll keep our thoughts coming at @indywx through the afternoon.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/crippling-snow-storm-for-some-just-wet-for-others/