Highlights:
- Frigid Thursday
- Milder, but wet this weekend
- Turning colder next week
Bundle Up…Temperatures are running much colder than this time 24 hours ago with most waking up to the teens. Throw in a strong and gusty NW wind and the ‘chill factor has fallen to as low as zero for many neighborhoods this morning. Thankfully, sunshine should be with us this afternoon.
Our wind flow will shift around to the southwest and usher in a milder brand of air by Friday afternoon. Eventually, that flow will also be an increasingly moist one, as well, and showers will develop Saturday, continuing into Sunday. We expect the cold front to slip through the state Sunday night and allow colder air to return.
Questions abound early-mid next week. Whether or not we can get a piece of energy to dig in and create wintry “fun and games” is yet to be determined. Modeling is going back and forth on that idea, versus, multiple, weaker waves capable of producing scattered snow showers in the colder air mass. We’ll continue to monitor things.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: Dusting – 1″
- Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.75″
However the cold air won’t last and milder times will return by the second half of the weekend. This back and forth “tug of war” type regime will remain as cold and warmth (relative to average) continue to battle over the upcoming couple weeks. The latest European ensemble shows this nicely.
This also favors a rather active pattern and confidence is high on a wetter than average period upcoming over the next couple weeks. See the GFS ensembles support this idea. A couple strong storms are also possible Tuesday.
Unfortunately for snow lovers, the majority of significant moisture should fall as rain. Best snow chances appear to come with “backlash” wrap around snow showers and squalls Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Accumulating snow is possible, but most amounts should be light. We’ll keep an eye on it.
Longer-term, the fight continues deeper into the month. As 
2.) What at one time looked to be a significant weekend storm now may not even deliver any precipitation at all to the region. A flurry is possible, but most should remain precipitation-free this weekend. Expect a gusty southwest wind developing SB Sunday. Highs around freezing Saturday will zoom into the middle 40s Sunday. Lows Saturday morning in the middle 10s will rise into the upper 20s to around 30 Sunday morning.
3.) A more significant storm system will cut for the Great Lakes early next week and this will deliver gusty showers and embedded thunderstorms. A couple of stronger storms aren’t out of the question. Locally heavy rains can be expected, including amounts of 1″-1.5″ (locally heavier totals).
4.) Cold air will rush back into the region behind the storm and snow showers and squalls are likely by Wednesday.
5.) Longer-term, a real fight is developing on the overall direction we’re heading as February evolves. Analog methods and teleconnections (shown below) would yield bullish cold signals and give hope to winter enthusiasts. However, modeling isn’t in agreement on the wintry ideas. In fact, some modeling is very spring-like as mid-Feb nears. Stay tuned as we try and iron out the details this weekend. Updates will come.