You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Category: Windy
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekend-video-update/
Jan 18
Times Are Changing, Or Are They?
January-to-date is running milder than normal across the region- to the tune of 3.3 degrees (F). This is after a frigid open to the month, as you recall.
The second week of the month warmed significantly and continues, overall, for the next week.
The mid-January warmth is attributed to a roaring PAC jet which is currently helping flood the country with temperatures much more like spring than the dead of winter. We continue to forecast 60+ this weekend across central IN.
Winter lovers, have no fear as changes appear to be in the offing as we go through the last few days of January and head into February. The winter so far has featured conflicting signals that continue to try and compete with one another to take hold of the pattern. Can we get these drivers to align in a way that would pull a more persistent trough into the east for the second half of the winter and, ultimately, set-up a sustained cold pattern helping make up for lost time in the snowfall department? Time will tell, but we do note the following late month:
- (+) PNA pattern
- Sudden stratospheric warming event
- High latitude blocking
All are encouraging for a shift back towards a wintry regime. As always, the devil is in the details and we’re skeptical as to the longevity of these signals. “Cautiously optimistic” would be the way to sum up our current feel longer-term into the month of February, but we’re not as bullish on lock and hold cold, wintry conditions at this time as what you may hear from some of our national compadres. Understanding that various drivers can have a different impact mid and late winter as opposed to early is one thing. It’s also important to note that long term modeling has been abysmal as of late and we want to tread through the next couple of weeks with caution to see whether or not the cold drivers can finally take hold.
Needless to say, at least through late month, one can see the significant changes take place at 500mb.
Thursday:
This Weekend:
Next Thursday:
Next Weekend:
The pattern begins in the short-term with a look that will power anomalous warmth through the weekend, along with renewed rain chances Thursday night into Friday (another 1″+ for most), but begins to shift next week towards the colder look. The 2nd (weekend) storm system will be significant and poses a severe risk to the southeast region. Modeling has backed away on the heavy rain threat Sunday, but showers will be around early next week along with very windy conditions (40+ MPH gusts). Blocking is forcing the low south. By the time we get to next weekend, the pattern has done a 180 and in a position to drill unseasonably cold air back into the central and eastern portions of the country.
As far as storms go later in the period, it’s far too early to discuss specifics, but the pattern seems to be one that will promote the chance to get into the act on high-ratio producing clippers. It’s the first time we can say that this year. Time will tell…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/times-are-changing-or-are-they/
Jan 16
Warm, But Unsettled Week…
Highlights:
- Unseasonably warm week
- Multiple rounds of rain and embedded thunderstorms
- Eyeing winter’s return next week
Have The Rain Gear Handy…While we’ll enjoy unseasonably mild temperatures, the wet and unsettled theme we’ve been dealing with as of late we’ll continue this week.
Most of the daytime today will feature more dry time than wet with just scattered showers expected before more widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms arrive by nightfall. Wet and periodically stormy times continue tonight into the early morning hours Tuesday. After a predawn high in the mid 50s, temperatures will slowly fall during the day Tuesday before remaining steady in the middle to upper 40s for the balance of the afternoon.
We may get a brief (rare) look at the sun Wednesday as we’ll be in between weather systems, but have no fear, as our next storm will be developing to our south and arrive with showers Thursday. 🙂 Rain and perhaps a thunderstorm continue Friday, especially through the first half of the day.
The majority of Saturday will feature dry and warm (early spring-like) conditions, but clouds will increase during the second half of the day and showers will push north into the state at night. Windy, wet conditions continue Sunday.
Longer-term, forecast models continue to paint a significantly colder, wintry pattern as we go through the last week of the month.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/warm-but-unsettled-week/
Jan 14
January Thaw For The New Week Ahead…
Highlights:
- Damp, chilly Sunday
- Milder week ahead
- Spring-preview late next week
Improvements Coming…Most of tonight will feature dry conditions along with temperatures settling back below freezing (most of central IN will fall into the middle to upper 20s). Another surge of light precipitation will arrive Sunday morning into the afternoon and this could begin as a period of freezing rain from the city and points north. Similar to today, we don’t expect any major problems from the freezing rain and all of the region should warm above freezing during the afternoon.
While Monday could feature a quick-hitting shower at any given time, more widespread steady rain will push into central Indiana during the day Tuesday, along with breezy conditions. Those breezy southwest winds will help give temperatures a boost into the middle 50s for afternoon highs.
We’ll shift that southwest wind around to the northwest Wednesday and this will help push cooler air into the state for mid week. Despite the cooler feel, we’ll remain well above average with breezy conditions. (Average highs in central Indiana are in the middle 30s this time of year).
The big news for the latter portion of the forecast period will be a true spring-like feel developing as we rumble into the weekend. In fact, temperatures will surge well into the 60s next Saturday. Modeling isn’t in total agreement on rain chances with a moist southwest flow in place. We’ll take the “optimistic” route at this time and forecast a dry Saturday, understanding that we’ll have to maintain a close eye on things.
Quick heads up, longer term data continues to suggest we’ll flip into a much colder and stormy pattern as we wrap up January and head into February. Winter is far from over…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/january-thaw-for-the-new-week-ahead/
Jan 10
Prolonged Stretch Of Gloomy Weather…
Highlights:
- Active stretch of weather begins
- Moderating trend into midweek
- Ice concerns Friday-Saturday
Sunglasses NOT Required…We’re entering the beginning of an active stretch of weather, with an extended period of overcast skies and gloomy conditions. Let’s dive in and take the challenges one-by-one:
Showers develop this afternoon as a cold front moves into the state. Ahead of the front, strong southwest winds will gust upwards of 45 MPH+. A “big hair warning” is in effect. 🙂
A brief shot of colder air will arrive late tonight into Wednesday, but just as soon as it arrives, it’ll leave and temperatures will approach 60 Wednesday night as showers return.
Thursday will be a wet day with periods of rain and slowly falling temperatures during the afternoon/ evening.
Friday is much colder as the arctic front will be to our south, but most of the day looks dry. Moisture will lift north Friday afternoon and evening and with cold air in place, the precipitation should take the form of a mixture of freezing rain and sleet. Periods of freezing rain likely continue Saturday. It’s far too early to discuss amounts and we also want to reiterate the difference of 1-2 degrees will mean a world of difference between areas dealing with ice versus a cold rain. The “battle zone” looks to take place across central IN. If you have travel plans Friday night and Saturday, please keep abreast of later forecasts and updates.
Regardless of whether or not we’re dealing with icy conditions across central IN during the first half of the weekend, temperatures will warm during the second half of the weekend and change any frozen/ freezing precipitation over to plain ole cold rain Sunday into Monday.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/prolonged-stretch-of-gloomy-weather/