Category: Weekly Outlook

Jul 03

All-Access: European Weekly Update…

The latest European Weeklies are in and suggest that the worst of the heat will be behind us after next week (for the summer as a whole). Let’s take a look at the upcoming period into the latter part of July to see where the model believes the rest of the month goes from here.

Week 2: July 8-15

Below average temperatures are expected across the Plains into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region while the warmth is “shoved” west and south.


Week 3: July 15-22

Cooler air is expected to dominate across the central and northern Plains while the West Coast and Deep South remains warmer than normal. The central Plains into the western Great Lakes region looks wet for Week 3.

Week 4: July 22-29

Common theme of below normal temperatures continues across the Plains into the Great Lakes with warmth across the West and South. To no surprise, the Southern Plains looks to run dry where the above normal warmth persists while above normal rainfall is shown by the model across the Ohio Valley into the southern Great Lakes.

This is another “tool in the belt,” so to speak, and our official July Forecast can be found here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/07/03/all-access-european-weekly-update/

Jun 20

Thursday Evening Rambles: Stormy Weekend On Deck; New European Weeklies Are In…

I. Briefly Refreshing: A badly needed dry stretch of weather will be short-lived- 24 hours at most for the majority of central Indiana, and that’s if you’re lucky. This evening, however, will offer a much drier brand of air building into the area along with dew points and temperatures falling into the middle to upper 50s. Areas of dense fog will be possible Friday morning in spots.

A brief refreshing change will take place tonight into Friday morning, including lows in the mid to upper 50s across central IN.

II. Tropical Air Returns: Just as soon as the drier air mass arrives, it’ll depart. We’ll go from morning dew points in the middle 50s Friday to upper 60s by evening and into the lower 70s by Saturday evening. It’s safe to the say that once to Saturday afternoon the humidity will be back with authority.

III. Warm Front Provides Focus For Storms: A warm front will lift northeast over the weekend and serve focus for hefty storms clusters to track in a northwest to southeast fashion. The first of a series of these clusters will likely arrive into the state late Friday morning or early afternoon and most likely affect the southwest portion of the state.

We believe the drier air mass will initially serve to shunt the storms to our southwest, but as an increasingly moist air mass lifts north, better chances of storms will return Friday evening into Saturday morning. This is a tough pattern to get specific with timing these storms clusters, but it’s safe to say central Indiana will come under the gun for multiple rounds of storms through the weekend and into early next week.

IV. Warmer; Drier Trends: While we can’t completely eliminate rain and storm chances, the trends continue to move towards a warmer and drier pattern building in here in the medium range (6-10 day period, or the overall period through the middle of next week into next weekend) as an upper level ridge builds over the Ohio Valley.

Enjoy while we have it as we continue to believe the pattern will return to an overall cooler and wetter theme for the bulk of July.

V. NEW European Weeklies: The updated European Weeklies are in and while they keep a warmer than normal pattern in place through the first 1/3 of July, they are bullish on signaling the return of a cooler regime around or shortly after the 10th. After a drier theme early July, wetter conditions are also signaled on the updated model data for the 2nd half of the month.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/20/thursday-evening-rambles-stormy-weekend-on-deck-new-european-weeklies-are-in/

Jun 06

Pleasant Stretch Of Weather; Unseasonably Cool Temperatures Dialed Up Next Week…

After an active evening across central Indiana on Wednesday, I’m excited to say the upcoming 48-72 hours looks much calmer overall. All of the “action” will be off to our south the next couple of days with mixed clouds and sun and seasonable warmth dominating across central Indiana.

Sunshine returns across central Indiana today and will remain in place as we close out the work week.

Highs today and Friday will top out in the lower to middle 80s.

While we’ll remain dry across central Indiana to wrap up the work week, better chances of showers will remain across far southern portions of the state (closer to the influence of the upper low swirling across the southern Plains and into the Ark-La-Tex region tomorrow).

The upper low will move closer to the region over the weekend and result in better shower coverage as we move into Saturday and Sunday (still not looking at wash-outs either day).

An average of various computer models prints out rainfall amounts between 0.50″ and 1″ in the Saturday through Monday time period.

High pressure will build in Tuesday and Wednesday, supplying a return of dry conditions.

A cold front and associated area of low pressure will approach Thursday and this will serve to deliver a round of scattered thunderstorms as we make the transition towards next weekend. A few gusty storms are a good bet Thursday with this frontal system. With this being a week out, we’ll continue to keep an eye on things and be able to get more specific with time. Perhaps as big of a story will be the unseasonably cool air that will blow into town behind the front to close next week. Lows in the 40s and highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s seem likely and a far cry from what we’d normally expect for mid-June.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/06/pleasant-stretch-of-weather-unseasonably-cool-temperatures-dialed-up-next-week/

Feb 21

All-Access Long Range Update: Walking Through March…

Recently, a “transient” pattern has dominated. This has kept any sort of long-lasting cold at bay and resulted in above normal precipitation. As we get set to close out February and welcome in a new month, a pattern change is on the horizon.

This overall shift in the pattern will drive a more sustained and significantly colder than normal regime southeast. In short, cold is set to “overwhelm” the pattern through the first couple of weeks of March. In the most extreme case (especially if we can get snow down), we will be able to challenge records at some point during the 1st (10) days of the month.

In spite of a neutral to positive AO and NAO, a significantly negative EPO and MJO rumbling through the cold late Feb and early March phases look to trump the otherwise warm signals. We also can’t forget about the significant SOI crash. Let’s dig into some of the latest data:

CFSv2


Note the modeling spreading the cold out during the Weeks 2-3 time period before gradually modifying things as we move into the middle and latter portion of March. The mean storm track shifts to the east during the first couple of weeks of the month (pattern will likely be dominated by more snow vs. rain events during this time period) before wetter than normal conditions return for the 2nd half of the month.

JMA Weeklies

Week 1
Week 2
Weeks 3-4

Like the CFSv2, the model overwhelms the pattern with cold during the Week 2 time period. Also similar to the CFSv2, the JMA Weeklies bring ridging back into the East and associated warmth by mid-month. While we haven’t included the precipitation anomalies in this post, the model does bring wetter than normal conditions back into the area by mid-March.

European Weeklies

The NEW European Weeklies remain consistent from Monday’s update (and data above) in delivering a very cold 1st half of March. The core of the cold looks to be centered over the upper Midwest and Northern Plains, but temperatures for the balance of the first couple weeks of the month will likely resemble what we’d expect in late January or early February vs. March. While precipitation will likely run below normal (thanks to the cold pattern), the model deliver above normal snowfall during the period. As we move into the 2nd half of the month, warmer (and wetter) conditions are shown to return.

Given all of the above, we expect the primary upper air pattern to feature a central and eastern trough through the 1st half of March before that trough settles into the West during the 2nd half of the month. This will open up the eastern portion of the country for not only warmer air, but a return of moisture-laden storm systems and the potential of strong-severe storms at times.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/21/all-access-long-range-update-walking-through-march/

Feb 03

Sunday Morning Video Update: Walking Through The Active Week Ahead; Looking Towards Mid-Feb…

A new week has dawned and with it will come a very busy weather pattern. Thankfully, today we’ll enjoy a “hint of spring,” including temperatures approaching the 60 deg. mark…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/03/sunday-morning-video-update-walking-through-the-active-week-ahead-looking-towards-mid-feb/

Jan 24

Long Range: Cold Pattern Isn’t Going Anywhere Fast…

We’ll save our short-term discussions for the severe and high-impact arctic outbreak on deck and focus our attention in this post to the upcoming several weeks. In short, we don’t expect the cold pattern to break anytime soon. Could there be a day or two of “relaxation?” Yes, but from an overall perspective, confidence is higher than normal on the colder than average pattern continuing through the month of February.

Let’s dig in to the teleconnections:

EPO

AO

NAO

PNA


Given the teleconnections in agreement pointing towards a cold pattern, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the majority of data is also on the cold train as we flip the page into February:

CFSv2 Weeklies

Weeks 1 & 2

Weeks 3 & 4

JMA Weekly

GEFS

While we aren’t licensed to show the European Weeklies, the new update runs with a cold pattern into early March. This falls in line with the overall consensus of longer range data, backed up by teleconnections.

Though not nearly at the amplitude of a few weeks ago, the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is forecast to move through Phases 5 and 6 in the coming weeks before going back into the “null” phase.


Phases 5 and 6 this time of year would suggest colder anomalies are more likely around our neck of the woods:

Given the above, we continue to think a colder than average “2nd half” of winter looms for the region. We lean heavily on the NAO, EPO, and AO state(s) this time of year and all would point towards a cold time of things moving forward, overall. The latest European Weeklies are interesting from a couple of fronts- initially very cold and then progressively stormy. The idea here is that we remain quite wintry through February and into early March before this pattern breaks. While we may not see a “repeat” visit of the Vortex, it wouldn’t surprise us to see another major arctic outbreak again this winter (after next week), but that likely comes later, and towards the end of the game before we snap into spring.

Buckle up; we think we have a long way to go this winter…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/24/long-range-cold-pattern-isnt-going-anywhere-fast/

Jan 06

Week Ahead Outlook: Relatively Quiet Times Remain…

I. Today won’t feature nearly as much sunshine as we enjoyed Saturday, but considering it’s early-January, we can’t complain about mid-upper 40s and dry conditions.  Morning fog in spots will burn off to increasing mid and high level cloudiness today ahead of our approaching Monday storm system.

II. A cold front will push rain back into the state as we open the work week.  Rain will reach greatest coverage around the lunchtime hour into the early afternoon.  Overall, central Indiana rain gauges can expect to accumulate somewhere between 0.10″ and 0.25″ Monday.

Note this storm system won’t have a Gulf of Mexico (GOM) connection. Thus, the reason behind the lighter rainfall numbers compared to recent events.

III. Colder air will pour in behind the storm system.  Highs will struggle to reach the freezing mark Wednesday and Thursday. Dry times return.

IV. A weak system may deliver rain or snow next weekend, but modeling differs on how they handle this energy.  We’ll keep an eye on things and update accordingly.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/06/week-ahead-outlook-relatively-quiet-times-remain/

Nov 12

Looking At A Busy (Wintry) Week Ahead…

I.  A weak weather system will result in light precipitation (mostly snow) overspreading central and northern portions of the state later this evening into the overnight.  Moisture looks less and less impressive with each and every model run, but we’ll still go with a slushy coating to less than 1″ for the city, itself with a general 1″ to 2″ of wet snow for communities off to the north of the city.  Additionally, a lake effect snow band should get going Tuesday morning and this band may make it south into east-central Indiana in a weakened state.

Light snow will overspread the region tonight. Image courtesy of Weathermodels.com.

II.  Another push of unseasonably cold air will pour south into the region behind this storm system and set the stage for a potentially interesting time of things when a new storm system approaches a bit later in the week…

III.  A very complex storm system will impact the area Thursday.  While there are many details that are yet to be worked out, someone across the mid-south into the Ohio Valley will likely get a “plowable” snow out of this event.  Initially, available cold air will be marginal, but with an expected strong upper level low, this storm system is likely to “manufacture” its’ own cold air and result in a swath of heavy, wet snow to the north and northwest of where the upper low tracks.  Stay tuned.

Behind this storm, you guessed it- cold air will reinforce itself across the region heading into next weekend!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/11/12/looking-at-a-busy-wintry-week-ahead/

Sep 09

Looking At The Week Ahead…

Rainfall of significance is over, and thankfully so.  Many area rainfall totals checked in between 4″ and 7″ and while significant, the overall forward motion of Gordon’s remnants moved much quicker than forecast guidance suggested, ultimately limiting flooding issues from being even worse.

Today we’re left will overcast skies, patchy drizzle at times, gusty winds, and MUCH cooler air.  In fact, the majority of our Sunday will be spent in the 50s.  In case you’re wondering, November 1st is the “average” first day with a high in the 50s- 59° to be exact.

Patchy drizzle is possible through the day, but significant rainfall is over.

Temperatures will remain steady in the upper 50s for the majority of the day.

High pressure will return to open the work week.  We’ll still likely deal with more clouds than sun on Monday, but as high pressure builds directly overhead Tuesday, more in the way of sunshine will return.  Temperatures will be very pleasant through the first half of the work week- lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s.

All eyes will shift to Florence by midweek.  She’ll likely go through a period of significant strengthening on her journey closer to the southeast US coast with a potential landfall along the Carolina coastline Thursday.  There’s still time to watch things unfold, but confidence is increasing on a potential major hurricane making landfall later this week.

Unfortunately, the upper air pattern and lack of a steering current would lead to Florence either stalling out or “meandering” around the mid-Atlantic region for potentially several days…

Meanwhile, back here on the home front, our fall-like early week feel will transition to warmer times as we move into late week and next weekend.  Highs in the mid 80s will return with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/09/09/looking-at-the-week-ahead-2/

Jul 24

Tuesday Morning Rambles: Drier Air Before Our Next Front…

I. Drier air will work into the region and limit rain chances today and Wednesday (isolated coverage at best). Highs will also warm back up to seasonal levels during the time.

Drier air will work into the Ohio Valley today and Wednesday. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

II. Our next frontal boundary will arrive Thursday afternoon.  Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening hours.  Behind the boundary, cooler and refreshing air will return to wrap up the work week.

Cooler, more refreshing air will return to wrap up the work week. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

III. We’re timing out our next storm system for a weekend arrival. While the weekend won’t be a wash out, rain chances will return late Saturday into Sunday. Forecast models differ on the specifics with respect to timing, track, and rainfall amounts and all will have to be fine tuned over the next few days.

The GFS is faster and more aggressive on weekend rain. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

Meanwhile, the European is slower with rain, bringing the bulk of precipitation in AFTER the weekend. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

IV. Longer range, we don’t see any significant heat on the immediate horizon. On that note, while we aren’t saying additional hot days won’t occur the rest of the way in, we continue to believe the hottest weather of the summer is behind us. The new European Weeklies in last night continued a seasonal to cooler than average theme for August into early September.  All images below are courtesy of weathermodels.com.

Days 10-17

Days 18-25

Days 25-32

Days 32-39

Days 38-45

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/07/24/tuesday-morning-rambles-drier-air-before-our-next-front/

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