Category: Weekly Outlook

Aug 13

Long Range Update: Closing Out August…

With a little over 2 weeks to go in meteorological summer, model data disagrees in the way the month- and season ends. That is, after the upcoming week where the consensus is cooler and drier than normal (we agree, as well). Let’s take a look at the data:

European Weeklies

Week 1

CFSv2

Week 1

GEFS

Week 1

EPS

Week 1

JMA

Week 1

The American data and JMA Weeklies are coolest (compared to the European), but compared to Weeks 2 and 3, there’s better consensus. The initial week is also looking drier than normal- especially after a “smattering” of storms tomorrow and Saturday.

Week 1 Precipitation anomalies- JMA Weeklies
Week 1 Precipitation anomalies- European ensemble

Let’s now take a look at Week 2:

European Weeklies

Week 2

CFSv2

Week 2

GEFS

Week 2

EPS

Week 2

JMA

Week 2

This is where our idea begins to pivot more towards the JMA Weeklies and European data (warmer look). The reason primarily has to do with the MJO moving back into Phase 8 during this time period.

This is a warm phase in August.

Furthermore, the PNA ‘mean’ is forecast to trend off the positive “mountain” (that will help drive the cooler pattern for the upcoming week) and more towards neutral.

Phase 1 is also a warmer look for our part of the country and that’s the way we’re leaning for the last week of the month (despite the very cool CFSv2).

While not overly warm, we think the JMA has the best handle on the temperature pattern in the Week 3 timeframe, locally (seasonable to slightly above normal).

The pattern should also begin to trend wetter during this time period:

This matches up with Phase 1 of the Madden Julian oscillation:

So, to summarize, after a cool and dry period next week, we anticipate the pattern to trend warmer (more seasonable) and wetter to close the month and head into early September. One other item of note is that the tropics should really begin to heat back up during this period, as well. Of course, as is the case from time to time, that can be a wild card from a precipitation perspective. The Gulf of Mexico (GOM) looks particularly busy late August through late September, but there’s simply no way to get more specific from this distance, including potential inland impacts. It’s worth keeping a close eye though.

Before we leave, the latest JAMSTEC seasonal data updated this morning and features a “torch” of a fall, along with a warm, wet winter, locally. That southeast ridge will have to be dealt with this winter. While still early, the early lean is for a warm start to winter (including holiday season). While there are some ingredients that may keep things more interesting than what they could be otherwise, from at least this point, this doesn’t appear as if it’ll be an “exciting” winter for lovers of snow and cold. Much more later- and again, we still have a long way to go…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/08/13/long-range-update-closing-out-august/

Jun 15

VIDEO: Timing Out When Rain/ Storm Chances Return…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/15/video-timing-out-when-rain-storm-chances-return/

May 13

Off To The Races; Warmth Met With Periodic Storms…

A band of light showers is falling across southern Indiana this morning, but these are expected to diminish before pushing into central Indiana. Most of the remainder of our Wednesday should be rain-free.

The quiet times will give way to a couple of rounds of storms during the overnight and into Friday. Most notably for central Indiana, we think storm chances will increase significantly after midnight and through the predawn hours Thursday. Locally heavy rain and vivid lightning is expected with the stronger storms.

These storms are in association with a warm front lifting north through the state. Speaking of warm, we’ll certainly notice a difference in air masses between today (still relatively cool and dry) and tomorrow (much warmer and more humid). In fact, highs Thursday will flirt with 80° across most of central Indiana.


Once we get rid of the early morning storms, most of the remainder of our Thursday will be dry and feature a return of the sun.

Another round of storms is expected Thursday night into Friday, but most of these will remain well north of our area. A few of these could become severe across northwestern Indiana during this period.

Rain and storm chances will increase once again during the day Friday across central Indiana. A few strong storms will be possible.

As we look ahead to the weekend, it appears we’ll be able to enjoy a mostly dry day Saturday (widely scattered storm possible) before more widespread storms return Sunday. Warm and humid conditions will prevail. A cold front will move through the area early next week which will allow for briefly cooler, drier air to move in during the 1st half of next week. Before that takes place, rainfall amounts between tonight and Sunday are expected to range from 1.5” – 2” with locally heavier totals across central Indiana. Heavier rainfall amounts can be expected across northern Indiana (widespread 3” to 4” amounts during the same period).

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/13/off-to-the-races-warmth-met-with-periodic-storms/

Apr 25

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Outlook…

Weekly Highlights:

I. Potent area of low pressure will track along the Ohio River, spreading rain across the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast, including higher elevation wet snow.

II. A surface low and associated cold front will sweep into Plains Tuesday and to the eastern seaboard by Thursday. This system will have to be monitored for not only the potentially of locally heavy rain, but the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms on the journey southeast.

Wettest anomalies will extend from the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast over the upcoming 7-days. Widespread dry conditions can be expected across the central Plains into the Rockies.
Immediate central-Indiana can expect 2″ to 2.5″ of rain between now and next Saturday morning, with locally heavier amounts.
Summer-like heat will bake the West while the eastern 1/3 of the country remains cooler than normal.
We will have to keep close tabs on the midweek cold front as it may ignite strong to severe storms from the Plains to the East Coast in the Tuesday-Thursday time period. The SPC is already highlighting a Day 4 (Tuesday) risk.

Forecast Period: 04.25.20 through 05.02.20

Central Indiana and the Ohio Valley, as a whole, will have to deal with both storm systems highlighted above. While we still believe dry conditions will prevail through a good portion of our Saturday, rain will become more widespread this evening into Sunday morning in response to a surface low moving northeast along the Ohio River. A couple heavier bands of rain may develop across the region tonight into Sunday morning and by the time all is said and done, the southern half of the state (along and south of the I-70 corridor) can expect 0.50″ to 1″ of rain by Sunday afternoon. Further north, amounts between 0.25″ and 0.50″ will be more common. Drier air will build in late Sunday afternoon, along with a cooler northeasterly and northerly flow behind our departing storm system.

Monday morning will open dry, but a weak weather maker will scoot through the state during the afternoon, resulting in scattered showers making a return Monday PM. These will be quick-moving showers and rainfall totals are expected to remain light for those that do see rain.

A much more organized storm system will push southeast Tuesday evening and Wednesday leading to more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity during this time frame. Stronger storms and locally heavy rain will be a good bet with this particular system. Drier, cooler air returns behind this system as we get set to wrap up the work week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/25/weekly-agwx-and-severe-outlook-4/

Apr 24

Looking Ahead Into May: Extended Cooler Than Normal Regime; What About Precipitation?

The 2 big teleconnections (at least that we lean heavily on this time of year) both favor our cooler than normal regime lasting into the early to middle part of May. That’s not to say, there won’t be periods of warmth getting into the region ahead of cold fronts, just that in the overall sense, temperatures should continue to run below normal into the 1st half of May.

We can thank the positive PNA and negative NAO.

After data aligned in handling the MJO movement into early May, disagreement has returned, and we’ll need to keep a close eye on this. Hopefully, by the time we release our official May Outlook (next week), agreement will return.

If, indeed, we do get things into Phase 4 (such as the GEFS shows), a warmer pattern should emerge towards the end of the 1st week of the month. Again, we’ll monitor these trends closely.

The latest European Weeklies remain cool into mid-May.

Apr 23-30
May 1-7
May 8-14

After the recent dry stretch through the majority of the month, the pattern should transition towards a more active/ wetter than normal time of things over the next 2-3 weeks.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/24/looking-ahead-into-may-extended-cooler-than-normal-regime-what-about-precipitation/

Apr 18

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Outlook…

Weekly Highlights:

I. Another significant severe weather outbreak is expected across the Gulf Coast region Sunday into Monday.

II. An area of low pressure will bisect the country midweek, delivering widespread rain and thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley and offering up another threat of severe weather Wednesday-Thursday for the TN Valley into the Deep South.

III. A 3rd system will track out of the northern Plains and begin to affect the Ohio Valley next weekend with increased showers and thunderstorms.

Wettest anomalies this week will be confined to the lower MS Valley, Deep South, and immediate East Coast.
Chilly weather (compared to normal) will continue to dominate the Great Lakes into the southern Appalachians and East.
Across immediate central Indiana, we’re expecting rainfall totals of 0.75″ to 1.25″ between now and next Saturday morning.
Unfortunately, another significant severe weather episode is expected across the Gulf Coast region on Sunday.

Forecast Period: 04.18.20 through 04.25.20

High pressure will build into the region today and supply a return of beautiful weather conditions. Albeit still cooler than normal, vastly improved weather conditions are on tap compared to the rain and snow of the past couple of days! Enjoy, friends!

A couple of weak and fairly moisture-starved cold fronts will give our immediate area “glancing blows” through early week. Scattered showers are all we can expect with these fronts Sunday and Tuesday. (Greater impacts from precipitation and cooler air can be expected off to our northeast with these fronts).

As we head into the back half of the forecast period, a couple of more significant storm systems will offer up better rainfall coverage, including the opportunity for thunderstorms Thursday into next weekend. We’ll keep an eye through the week on the potential of some stronger storms during this period, but as things stand now, the greater risk for severe appears to be off to our south.

One additional note- frost/ freeze conditions are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across central parts of the state with overnight lows falling into the lower 30s.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/18/weekly-agwx-and-severe-outlook-3/

Apr 11

Weekly #AGwx and #Severe Outlook…

Weekly Highlights:

I. Strong Easter storm system leads to a widespread severe weather outbreak across the southern Plains (today), Deep South (Sunday), and into the central/ southern Ohio Valley (Sunday night).

II. An anomalous trough carves itself out over the eastern half of the country leading to well below average temperatures in the week ahead.

The Deep South into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic will be in the cross hairs of well above average rainfall this week.
Most of the country will experience well below average temperatures in the week ahead.
Most of immediate central Indiana should pick up close to 1″ of rain during the upcoming 7-day period. Heavier amounts will likely fall across southern Indiana south into the TN Valley.
A major severe weather outbreak is expected from the southern Plains into the Deep South over the next 24-48 hours.

Forecast Period: 04.11.20 through 04.18.20

More specific to central Indiana, today will feature mostly cloudy, but mostly dry conditions. As a warm front lifts north across the state tonight, chances of showers will be on the increase. Easter will feature a deepening low pressure system racing northeast from the Ark-la-tex region across the central Ohio Valley and into the Great Lakes by Monday morning. Most of Easter Sunday will also feature precipitation-free hours, but showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase tomorrow evening into the nighttime. (If you have family and friends across the Deep South, please reach out and ensure they are aware of the developing situation and corresponding strong risk of significant severe weather Easter Sunday). While the threat of severe weather isn’t as great up this way, we’re closely monitoring the potential of a squall line impacting areas into southeastern Indiana late Sunday night into the overnight Monday- continuing into central portions of the Ohio. An associated damaging wind threat would ensue with this line of storms. Finally, as the cold front sweeps through the region Monday morning, rain should come to an end around or just before daybreak, but much cooler and very windy conditions will develop. Monday should feature northwest gusts of 40 to 50 MPH.

The remainder of the forecast period will be dominated by unseasonably chilly conditions and a couple of weaker, fast-moving, disturbances. With the cold air in place, mixed rain and snow showers are possible midweek with a disturbance.

Tuesday through Thursday mornings feature the best chance of temperatures falling to or below the freezing mark. Frost isn’t anticipated outside of this time frame due to clouds and/ or wind.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/11/weekly-agwx-and-severe-outlook-2/

Apr 04

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Outlook…

The first Saturday in April can only mean one thing and that’s the return of our weekly #AGwx and Severe Weather Outlook. Similar to last year, this will be posted each Saturday morning through the month of September.

Weekly Highlights:

I. A strong area of low pressure will move in off the Pacific and provide heavy rain across CA, including intense mountain snow Sunday through Wednesday.

II. A strong cold front will move through the Midwest and Ohio Valley Wednesday into Thursday. This will result in a drastic change from late spring like temperatures to more winter-like by late next week.

Below normal precipitation is expected over the next week across a good chunk of the country.
Ahead of a strong late week cold front, temperatures will pop to well above average levels through the 1st half of next week. 

7-day rainfall amounts should average right around 0.50″ for our immediate area.
Organized, widespread severe weather isn’t expected across the country over the upcoming 7-days.

More specific to central Indiana, we’ll have 3 weather makers to track over the upcoming week:

This afternoon- A cold front will pass through the state without much fanfare. A few showers are possible here and there, but some won’t see a drop of rain and those that do can expect only light amounts.

Tuesday through Thursday- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact the area during this time frame as a couple of fast moving disturbances track across the Ohio Valley. A strong cold front will cross the region Thursday with a band of rain followed by windy and much colder air to close the week and head into next weekend.

Week 2 (April 11th-18th) trends are for much colder air along with the prospects of light mixed rain/ snow showers at times. There’s the threat of a stronger system late in the Week 2 time frame that we’ll continue to monitor.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/04/weekly-agwx-and-severe-outlook/

Mar 07

VIDEO: Gorgeous Weekend; Discussing Timing Of Systems Next Week And Longer Range Impacts Of The MJO/ EPO…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/03/07/video-gorgeous-weekend-discussing-timing-of-systems-next-week-and-longer-range-impacts-of-the-mjo-epo/

Feb 15

Week Ahead Outlook: Light Snow For Some This Evening; Tuesday Rain Followed By Another Blast Of Cold Air…

It’s another frigid start to the day with widespread lower to middle 10s across central Indiana. Even colder air resides across the eastern Ohio Valley with single digits over the fresh snowpack.

Today will feature quiet weather until later this evening when a weak clipper-like system slides southeast. This feature will help increase our cloud cover and result in a few light snow showers across the northern half of the state. Those snow showers may make it as far south as the I-70 corridor by evening before dissipating. Not expecting much, if any accumulation, locally, across central Indiana.

Quiet conditions will return as we open up the new week, but a fast moving storm system will result in increasing cloudiness through the day Monday and rain returning Monday evening into Tuesday.

In general, we anticipate this system to deposit somewhere between 0.50″ and 0.75″ Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Much colder air will follow the cold frontal passage for midweek, including a stretch of highs in the upper 20s and 30s and lows in the 10s.

The 2nd half of the week will feature well below average temperatures.

High pressure will supply dry and sunny weather as we get set to close the work week, and as we look ahead, it doesn’t appear as if our next storm system will impact the region until the 2nd half of next weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/02/15/week-ahead-outlook-light-snow-for-some-this-evening-tuesday-rain-followed-by-another-blast-of-cold-air/

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