The 2 big teleconnections (at least that we lean heavily on this time of year) both favor our cooler than normal regime lasting into the early to middle part of May. That’s not to say, there won’t be periods of warmth getting into the region ahead of cold fronts, just that in the overall sense, temperatures should continue to run below normal into the 1st half of May.
We can thank the positive PNA and negative NAO.
After data aligned in handling the MJO movement into early May, disagreement has returned, and we’ll need to keep a close eye on this. Hopefully, by the time we release our official May Outlook (next week), agreement will return.
If, indeed, we do get things into Phase 4 (such as the GEFS shows), a warmer pattern should emerge towards the end of the 1st week of the month. Again, we’ll monitor these trends closely.
The latest European Weeklies remain cool into mid-May.
Apr 23-30
May 1-7
May 8-14
After the recent dry stretch through the majority of the month, the pattern should transition towards a more active/ wetter than normal time of things over the next 2-3 weeks.
I. Another significant severe weather outbreak is expected across the Gulf Coast region Sunday into Monday.
II. An area of low pressure will bisect the country midweek, delivering widespread rain and thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley and offering up another threat of severe weather Wednesday-Thursday for the TN Valley into the Deep South.
III. A 3rd system will track out of the northern Plains and begin to affect the Ohio Valley next weekend with increased showers and thunderstorms.
Wettest anomalies this week will be confined to the lower MS Valley, Deep South, and immediate East Coast.
Chilly weather (compared to normal) will continue to dominate the Great Lakes into the southern Appalachians and East.
Across immediate central Indiana, we’re expecting rainfall totals of 0.75″ to 1.25″ between now and next Saturday morning.
Unfortunately, another significant severe weather episode is expected across the Gulf Coast region on Sunday.
Forecast Period: 04.18.20 through 04.25.20
High pressure will build into the region today and supply a return of beautiful weather conditions. Albeit still cooler than normal, vastly improved weather conditions are on tap compared to the rain and snow of the past couple of days! Enjoy, friends!
A couple of weak and fairly moisture-starved cold fronts will give our immediate area “glancing blows” through early week. Scattered showers are all we can expect with these fronts Sunday and Tuesday. (Greater impacts from precipitation and cooler air can be expected off to our northeast with these fronts).
As we head into the back half of the forecast period, a couple of more significant storm systems will offer up better rainfall coverage, including the opportunity for thunderstorms Thursday into next weekend. We’ll keep an eye through the week on the potential of some stronger storms during this period, but as things stand now, the greater risk for severe appears to be off to our south.
One additional note- frost/ freeze conditions are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across central parts of the state with overnight lows falling into the lower 30s.
I. Strong Easter storm system leads to a widespread severe weather outbreak across the southern Plains (today), Deep South (Sunday), and into the central/ southern Ohio Valley (Sunday night).
II. An anomalous trough carves itself out over the eastern half of the country leading to well below average temperatures in the week ahead.
The Deep South into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic will be in the cross hairs of well above average rainfall this week.
Most of the country will experience well below average temperatures in the week ahead.
Most of immediate central Indiana should pick up close to 1″ of rain during the upcoming 7-day period. Heavier amounts will likely fall across southern Indiana south into the TN Valley.
A major severe weather outbreak is expected from the southern Plains into the Deep South over the next 24-48 hours.
Forecast Period: 04.11.20 through 04.18.20
More specific to central Indiana, today will feature mostly cloudy, but mostly dry conditions. As a warm front lifts north across the state tonight, chances of showers will be on the increase. Easter will feature a deepening low pressure system racing northeast from the Ark-la-tex region across the central Ohio Valley and into the Great Lakes by Monday morning. Most of Easter Sunday will also feature precipitation-free hours, but showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase tomorrow evening into the nighttime. (If you have family and friends across the Deep South, please reach out and ensure they are aware of the developing situation and corresponding strong risk of significant severe weather Easter Sunday). While the threat of severe weather isn’t as great up this way, we’re closely monitoring the potential of a squall line impacting areas into southeastern Indiana late Sunday night into the overnight Monday- continuing into central portions of the Ohio. An associated damaging wind threat would ensue with this line of storms. Finally, as the cold front sweeps through the region Monday morning, rain should come to an end around or just before daybreak, but much cooler and very windy conditions will develop. Monday should feature northwest gusts of 40 to 50 MPH.
The remainder of the forecast period will be dominated by unseasonably chilly conditions and a couple of weaker, fast-moving, disturbances. With the cold air in place, mixed rain and snow showers are possible midweek with a disturbance.
Tuesday through Thursday mornings feature the best chance of temperatures falling to or below the freezing mark. Frost isn’t anticipated outside of this time frame due to clouds and/ or wind.
The first Saturday in April can only mean one thing and that’s the return of our weekly #AGwx and Severe Weather Outlook. Similar to last year, this will be posted each Saturday morning through the month of September.
Weekly Highlights:
I. A strong area of low pressure will move in off the Pacific and provide heavy rain across CA, including intense mountain snow Sunday through Wednesday.
II. A strong cold front will move through the Midwest and Ohio Valley Wednesday into Thursday. This will result in a drastic change from late spring like temperatures to more winter-like by late next week.
Below normal precipitation is expected over the next week across a good chunk of the country.
Ahead of a strong late week cold front, temperatures will pop to well above average levels through the 1st half of next week.
7-day rainfall amounts should average right around 0.50″ for our immediate area.
Organized, widespread severe weather isn’t expected across the country over the upcoming 7-days.
More specific to central Indiana, we’ll have 3 weather makers to track over the upcoming week:
This afternoon- A cold front will pass through the state without much fanfare. A few showers are possible here and there, but some won’t see a drop of rain and those that do can expect only light amounts.
Tuesday through Thursday- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact the area during this time frame as a couple of fast moving disturbances track across the Ohio Valley. A strong cold front will cross the region Thursday with a band of rain followed by windy and much colder air to close the week and head into next weekend.
Week 2 (April 11th-18th) trends are for much colder air along with the prospects of light mixed rain/ snow showers at times. There’s the threat of a stronger system late in the Week 2 time frame that we’ll continue to monitor.
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