Updated 08.22.24 @ 8:18p
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Category: Weekly Outlook
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/08/22/video-long-range-rumblings-why-some-data-will-likely-have-to-correct-cooler-early-september/
Jun 21
The Dry Theme Continues For Now; Keeping An Eye On Sunday And Mid Next Week…
Updated 06.21.24 @ 7:45a The theme as we enter the weekend will continue to be a dry one, along with increasingly hot temperatures. Low-mid 90s will be common each afternoon…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/06/21/the-dry-theme-continues-for-now-keeping-an-eye-on-sunday-and-mid-next-week/
Apr 13
Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…
Updated 04.13.24 @ 12p
While unseasonably warm air will build in here early next week, don’t put away the cold weather gear just yet. We’re likely even looking at additional frost threats as we get towards late next weekend and/ or early Week 2. More details below in this week’s #AGwx and #Severe Weather Outlook.
“Transitional” is the word to describe the upcoming couple weeks worth of weather around these parts. The warmth to open the period will cool significantly next weekend and early Week 2, only to give way to renewed warming late April.
Note the roller coaster in the temperature anomalies over the next couple of weeks.
The active pattern in the week ahead will dry significantly late in the forecast period as the cooler airmass takes hold.
In the more immediate term, we’re tracking 2 storm systems in the week ahead: Tuesday – Wednesday and again Thursday night into Friday.
The Storm Prediction Center includes western Indiana in a risk of severe weather Tuesday. We’ll monitor for the potential of a further east extension of this risk area.
We think (2) rounds of storms are on deck Tuesday. The first round likely is associated with a warm front lifting north through the state Tuesday morning (hail threat) followed by a second round of activity Tuesday night into Wednesday morning (main concern being damaging straight line winds with this round). As of now, storm total rainfall amounts of 0.50″ to 1″ seem likely during this timeframe.
Another round of showers and embedded thunder will precede a blast of chilly air next weekend. We bracket Thursday night into Friday morning for this particular round of rain. An additional half inch, or so, of rain seems reasonable from this distance.
By the time we get to next weekend and early Week 2, drier and much cooler, more stable air should take up residence.
We note the warm open, chilly finish in the 10-day meteogram. Also note the frost threat at the end of this period.
Upcoming *10-Day Rainfall Projection: 1″ to 1.5″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/13/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-51/
Apr 08
Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…
Updated 04.08.24 @ 6:30p
We’re running a little more than 3° below normal to open the month, but changes are in the offing. The majority of the upcoming 7-day period should feature seasonal to above normal temperatures and that will likely only strengthen into the Week 2 timeframe.
Unfortunately, we have a big rain event set to unfold as we roll through the middle of the week. Rain (more “showery” in nature) will continue as we close out the work week before a gorgeous Saturday.
Our expected active spring will remain intact over the next couple weeks, including an overall above average look in the rainfall department.
In the short-term period, this is highlighted between what falls Wednesday-Friday.
Though severe weather won’t be a concern, heavy rain will during the aforementioned timeframe. We still think widespread 1.5”+ amounts are likely for many area rain gauges. As of now, severe weather isn’t expected, locally, based on the SLP track. Further east into Ohio, a few severe storms will be on the table. We’ll monitor for any last minute west adjustments leading into the system.
Widespread, soaking rains will turn more “showery” in nature Friday before dry air takes firm control and provides a pleasant Saturday.
Don’t get used to the dry weather. Despite the warmer trend, another round of rain and storms can be expected the 2nd half of the weekend into early next week.
Upcoming *10-Day Rainfall Projection: 1.5” to 2.5”
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/08/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-50/
Apr 05
Long Range Report: Pattern Evolution Into Late April; Early May…
Updated 04.05.24 @ 7:16a
The overall chilly and unsettled pattern of late should show rather marked improvement not only over the short-term, but longer range, as well.
The teleconnection suite (AO, NAO, PNA, and EPO) over the next couple weeks is aligned in a manner that should promote less of an anomalous 500mb look, locally (deep eastern trough we’ve been dealing with).
If we’re able to sneak into MJO Phase 6, then a warmer “lean” would be required by mid and late April. As always, we’ll keep an eye on those trends as the majority of data keeps the MJO in the neutral phase.
The thought here is that a milder and drier overall regime will take hold over the course of the next few weeks, certainly compared to late. That said, given the pattern drivers noted above, I also want to reiterate that we shouldn’t see rain or temperatures that differ significantly from average (rather only slightly above in the temperature department and slightly below in the precipitation department over the upcoming 4 week period). Further west, the better chance of more in the way of significantly above normal temperatures (primarily in the Plains).
The latest European and JMA Weeklies agree on this overall idea.
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Upcoming 4-week rainfall anomalies
The JMA Weeklies also show a similar story.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/05/long-range-report-pattern-evolution-into-late-april-early-may/
Mar 31
Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…
Updated 03.31.24 @ 7:26a
The upcoming immediate term will be headlined by a multi day heavy rain and severe weather episode. A stalled frontal boundary will serve as the pathway for multiple waves of low pressure to ride along through Tuesday. In addition to a heavy rain and flooding threat (primarily targeting immediate central and north-central Indiana), we’ll also likely have to deal with (3) rounds of severe storms. We’ll allow our short-term products to handle those severe threats, but just know all modes of severe are on the table with the greatest emphasis being on large hail with this setup. Should a couple discrete cells develop near or just south of the boundary then an elevated tornado threat would ensue. Again, we’ll have a fresh post hoisted later this afternoon or evening on that.
Overall, there’s no change in the idea of an active pattern continuing from Week 1 (image 1 below) into Week 2 (image 2 below).
The cooler pattern behind our early week storm system will reverse in significant fashion Week 2. – Transitional regime at its finest.
Week 1 temperature anomalies
Week 2 temperature anomalies
The busy nature of the pattern is reflected in the upcoming 2 week precipitation anomalies.
Severe weather will be possible at least across a portion of our immediate viewing area starting this evening and continuing daily through Tuesday.
Colder air will crash in here Wednesday and as an upper low swirls overhead, wet snow will develop. Snow may even fall heavily enough to accumulate on grassy surfaces in spots Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
*Upcoming 10-Day Rainfall Projection: 3” to 4”+
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/31/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-49/
Mar 24
Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…
Updated 03.24.24 @ 8:20a
While a period of unsettled weather looms late Monday and Tuesday, the majority of the upcoming week will feature quiet conditions across our neck of the woods. We’re watching Tuesday afternoon for the potential of severe weather across the state.
The ‘mean’ trough will settle into the western CONUS and that’s where the coldest anomalies will setup shop.
Forecast period: 03.24.24 – 03.31.24
We’ll close the weekend with quiet conditions in place. Anticipate gusty winds to kick up Monday as our next storm system approaches from the west. This will also deliver a few showers Monday night before heavier rain and embedded thunder arrives Tuesday predawn. An additional round of thunderstorms is expected Tuesday afternoon and a few of these could become strong to severe (damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern, but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out).
A cold front will sweep east and end the rain/ storm threat Tuesday night with calmer weather returning for mid and late week. The next chance of rain will arrive next weekend. Speaking of next weekend, though early, model guidance is suggestive that we may be looking at a heavy rain event around the time that we close out March and open April. Just something we’ll be keeping an eye on in the days ahead.
Upcoming storm dates to keep an eye on:
- 03.25 – 03.26
- 03.30 – 04.01
*10-day Rainfall Projection: 2.00″ to 3.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/24/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-48/
Mar 16
Long Range Report: Cooler, Drier Week 1 Turns Wetter To Close March; Open April…
Updated 03.16.24 @ 7:55a
Indianapolis is running right at average month to date from a rainfall perspective (1.78”).
We’re transitioning to a much drier pattern in the week ahead as a cooler, Canadian airmass dominates (for a change).
Several hard freezes (mid-upper 20s) are on tap in the upcoming 7-10 day period: Monday/ Tuesday morning and again late next week/ next weekend.
Cooler? Yes, but I still don’t see anything overly cold on the horizon as we navigate the next couple of weeks.
What’s more notable is the shift in the precipitation pattern over the next few weeks. The dry Week 1 (now) transitions to a significantly wetter and more active look Week 2 (below).
The JMA also sees the wetter regime.
This is forecast to continue in the Weeks 3/4 timeframe.
Continues to back up the idea of an active (wet) and stormy (more in the way of severe weather) spring as a whole.
Down the road, an eventual move into a hot, dry (compared to normal) summer may loom. (Yet one that is very active from a tropical perspective, continuing into the fall). More on that in the coming weeks…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/16/long-range-report-cooler-drier-week-1-turns-wetter-to-close-march-open-april/
Mar 10
Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…
Updated 03.10.24 @ 8:21a
Another unseasonably mild week awaits, but one thing is becoming increasingly clear: we’re not finished with the cold yet. The transition to a colder time of things next week will come with unsettled conditions late this week and the weekend (I know, timing isn’t on our side).
Forecast Period: 03.10.24 – 03.17.24
The period will open with dry and seasonably chilly conditions before a southwesterly flow takes hold and helps promote yet another quick warm-up in the work week ahead. A weak and fast moving system may deliver some scattered showers midweek but the lions share of our moisture this week will come Thursday and Friday. Colder air then pours in here over the weekend with the potential of snow getting involved by this time next week.
Upcoming Storm Dates to keep an eye on:
- 03.13
- 03.14 – 03.15
- 03.16 – 03.17
*10-Day Rainfall projection: 0.75” – 1.50”
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/10/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-47/
Jan 25
VIDEO: Source Region Change For Our Storm Systems Between Now And Next Week; Establishing A Bar On Just How Cold We Get Next Month…
Updated 01.25.24 @ 7:36a Dense fog is present yet again this morning, but at least we’re not dealing with heavy rain. That changes later this evening as a slug of…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/25/video-source-region-change-for-our-storm-systems-between-now-and-next-week-establishing-a-bar-on-just-how-cold-we-get-next-month/