Updated 06.21.24 @ 7:45a The theme as we enter the weekend will continue to be a dry one, along with increasingly hot temperatures. Low-mid 90s will be common each afternoon…
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Updated 04.13.24 @ 12p
While unseasonably warm air will build in here early next week, don’t put away the cold weather gear just yet. We’re likely even looking at additional frost threats as we get towards late next weekend and/ or early Week 2. More details below in this week’s #AGwx and #Severe Weather Outlook.
“Transitional” is the word to describe the upcoming couple weeks worth of weather around these parts. The warmth to open the period will cool significantly next weekend and early Week 2, only to give way to renewed warming late April.
Note the roller coaster in the temperature anomalies over the next couple of weeks.
The active pattern in the week ahead will dry significantly late in the forecast period as the cooler airmass takes hold.
In the more immediate term, we’re tracking 2 storm systems in the week ahead: Tuesday – Wednesday and again Thursday night into Friday.
The Storm Prediction Center includes western Indiana in a risk of severe weather Tuesday. We’ll monitor for the potential of a further east extension of this risk area.
We think (2) rounds of storms are on deck Tuesday. The first round likely is associated with a warm front lifting north through the state Tuesday morning (hail threat) followed by a second round of activity Tuesday night into Wednesday morning (main concern being damaging straight line winds with this round). As of now, storm total rainfall amounts of 0.50″ to 1″ seem likely during this timeframe.
Another round of showers and embedded thunder will precede a blast of chilly air next weekend. We bracket Thursday night into Friday morning for this particular round of rain. An additional half inch, or so, of rain seems reasonable from this distance.
By the time we get to next weekend and early Week 2, drier and much cooler, more stable air should take up residence.
We note the warm open, chilly finish in the 10-day meteogram. Also note the frost threat at the end of this period.
Upcoming *10-Day Rainfall Projection: 1″ to 1.5″
Updated 04.08.24 @ 6:30p
We’re running a little more than 3° below normal to open the month, but changes are in the offing. The majority of the upcoming 7-day period should feature seasonal to above normal temperatures and that will likely only strengthen into the Week 2 timeframe.
Unfortunately, we have a big rain event set to unfold as we roll through the middle of the week. Rain (more “showery” in nature) will continue as we close out the work week before a gorgeous Saturday.
Our expected active spring will remain intact over the next couple weeks, including an overall above average look in the rainfall department.
In the short-term period, this is highlighted between what falls Wednesday-Friday.
Though severe weather won’t be a concern, heavy rain will during the aforementioned timeframe. We still think widespread 1.5”+ amounts are likely for many area rain gauges. As of now, severe weather isn’t expected, locally, based on the SLP track. Further east into Ohio, a few severe storms will be on the table. We’ll monitor for any last minute west adjustments leading into the system.
Widespread, soaking rains will turn more “showery” in nature Friday before dry air takes firm control and provides a pleasant Saturday.
Don’t get used to the dry weather. Despite the warmer trend, another round of rain and storms can be expected the 2nd half of the weekend into early next week.
Upcoming *10-Day Rainfall Projection: 1.5” to 2.5”
Updated 04.05.24 @ 7:16a
The overall chilly and unsettled pattern of late should show rather marked improvement not only over the short-term, but longer range, as well.
The teleconnection suite (AO, NAO, PNA, and EPO) over the next couple weeks is aligned in a manner that should promote less of an anomalous 500mb look, locally (deep eastern trough we’ve been dealing with).
If we’re able to sneak into MJO Phase 6, then a warmer “lean” would be required by mid and late April. As always, we’ll keep an eye on those trends as the majority of data keeps the MJO in the neutral phase.
The thought here is that a milder and drier overall regime will take hold over the course of the next few weeks, certainly compared to late. That said, given the pattern drivers noted above, I also want to reiterate that we shouldn’t see rain or temperatures that differ significantly from average (rather only slightly above in the temperature department and slightly below in the precipitation department over the upcoming 4 week period). Further west, the better chance of more in the way of significantly above normal temperatures (primarily in the Plains).
The latest European and JMA Weeklies agree on this overall idea.
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Upcoming 4-week rainfall anomalies
The JMA Weeklies also show a similar story.
Updated 03.31.24 @ 7:26a
The upcoming immediate term will be headlined by a multi day heavy rain and severe weather episode. A stalled frontal boundary will serve as the pathway for multiple waves of low pressure to ride along through Tuesday. In addition to a heavy rain and flooding threat (primarily targeting immediate central and north-central Indiana), we’ll also likely have to deal with (3) rounds of severe storms. We’ll allow our short-term products to handle those severe threats, but just know all modes of severe are on the table with the greatest emphasis being on large hail with this setup. Should a couple discrete cells develop near or just south of the boundary then an elevated tornado threat would ensue. Again, we’ll have a fresh post hoisted later this afternoon or evening on that.
Overall, there’s no change in the idea of an active pattern continuing from Week 1 (image 1 below) into Week 2 (image 2 below).
The cooler pattern behind our early week storm system will reverse in significant fashion Week 2. – Transitional regime at its finest.
Week 1 temperature anomalies
Week 2 temperature anomalies
The busy nature of the pattern is reflected in the upcoming 2 week precipitation anomalies.
Severe weather will be possible at least across a portion of our immediate viewing area starting this evening and continuing daily through Tuesday.
Colder air will crash in here Wednesday and as an upper low swirls overhead, wet snow will develop. Snow may even fall heavily enough to accumulate on grassy surfaces in spots Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
*Upcoming 10-Day Rainfall Projection: 3” to 4”+