Category Archives: Weather Rambles

Tropical Feel With Daily Storm Chances…

Slow moving thunderstorms are currently producing small hail and torrential rainfall north of Lafayette (as of 5:45p Thursday).  We have reports of 1″ to as much as 1.5″ of rain falling near Battle Ground in less than an hour.

Eventually these storms should pick up momentum and head off to the southeast later tonight.

This is only the beginning of daily rain and storm chances in a warm and humid air mass through the weekend and on into early next week.  The culprit?  An upper level ridge centered over the southern Plains and “spokes” of energy, or upper level disturbances, rotating around the periphery of the hot dome to our southwest.

An increasingly muggy air mass will take hold of the region as we close the work week, with dew points approaching 70° at times.  The term “air you can wear” comes to mind.  As impulses of energy interact with this tropical air mass, thunderstorms will blossom- particularly in the afternoon and evening hours.

We’ll have to nail down specifics with storm coverage and timing within our short-term forecast products and updates, but each day into early next week will feature coverage of storms across central Indiana.  Future forecast radar products show scattered to numerous storms around Friday evening and again Saturday.  Get used to this look.

Looking down the road, a “sticky” summer feel will remain intact through next week, but changes are brewing in the longer range.  These changes would support a cooler regime developing just past mid-June (in the 10 to 15 day time frame).  While the duration is up for debate, it’ll be nice for at least a few days of cooler air…

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Telling Time Ahead…

Models have been suggesting that the middle of June (roughly June 10th-20th) would turn increasingly stormy and wet.  The JMA led the charge several weeks ago with this idea.  The GFS and it’s ensemble data has, for the most part, been on board with this line of thought, as well.  On the flip side, more times than not, the powerful European forecast model has suggested we shouldn’t “hold our breath” on the prospects of a wetter shift.  With the target period now only a few days out, it’s time to “put up or shut up.”  I was chatting with a good friend of mine Tuesday evening concerning the recent dry conditions for the heart of central Indiana and that we’re heading into a “telling time” starting as early as this weekend.  Should the wetter scenarios pan out I think it’ll be enough to keep the worst of the heat and droughty conditions west of Indiana for the balance of the summer.  (Please know that’s not us saying it won’t turn dry at times, but instead just that the worst of the heat and dry conditions would be placed to our west).

While the all-important surface results differ, it’s encouraging to see that at least from the perspective of an upper air pattern standpoint, both models are rather similar.  More significantly, this pattern would support rounds of thunderstorm complexes tracking southeast into the Ohio Valley this weekend and into early next week.

While impossible to nail down exactly which back yards would see beneficial rainfall, it would be an overall more conducive pattern for widespread showers and thunderstorms for our general region.  We’ll have to lean on high resolution, shorter-term models as time draws closer to gain more insight around more precise timing and track details, but we continue to trend our forecast wetter Friday through Sunday than we’ve been over the past couple weeks- Alberto remnants excluded.

Come this time next week we’ll have a much better idea of where the balance of the summer is going, locally.  Should beneficial rains fall, it’s still not too late in the season to have a significant longer term impact on summer as a whole.  In fact, if we can get water in the ground, it would be easier to buy into the cooler regime the models are currently showing late-June.  At the very least, an interesting weekend lies ahead…

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Timing Out Weekend Rain And Storms; Looking Towards Memorial Day Weekend…

Scattered showers and a couple of rumbles of thunder will be most numerous this morning into the early-mid afternoon hours before briefly drier conditions build in this evening.

Our attention will then shift to the potential of strong thunderstorms late Sunday.  Higher resolution guidance suggests storms will begin to rumble into western Indiana late Sunday evening (around 9p to 10p) before tracking east into the overnight hours.

With a stalled front nearby, shower and thunderstorm chances will remain in our forecast into the middle of the week.  While it won’t rain the entire time, unsettled conditions will remain into Wednesday before high pressure provides drier conditions Thursday and most of Friday.

Thinking as of now is that a new storm system will approach next weekend, which would deliver a return of unsettled weather late Friday, continuing through the all-important Memorial Day and Indy 500 weekend.  We obviously still have plenty of time to watch things unfold over the upcoming week and will get more specific as time grows closer.

A new storm system could result in an unsettled Memorial Day weekend around these parts.

From a temperature perspective, the upcoming 6-10 days will run well above average, maintaining the warm May theme.  Looking out further, there’s the possibility that the last couple of days of the month could trend cooler behind the Memorial Day weekend storm.

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More Unsettled Weekend Ahead And Closing Out May…

An upper level low pressure system will track northeast today into tonight, and as it does, look for more numerous showers and embedded thunder to develop.  Some localized heavier downpours are a good bet this evening across central Indiana.

Otherwise, look for considerable cloudiness and highs topping out in the lower 70s today.

While we’ll have to contend with a few showers Saturday, overall, the day should be drier compared to today and what lies ahead Sunday.  Speaking of Sunday, we’re monitoring the potential of a couple of storms reaching strong to severe levels to close the weekend.  The Storm Prediction Center includes central portions of the state in a “marginal” risk of severe with their update Friday morning.  It wouldn’t surprise us if a portion of the marginal risk is upgraded to a “slight” risk in future updates.  We’ll fine tune storm timing over the next 24 hours.

As we look ahead to the end of May, there really aren’t any significant changes to the overall warmer than normal theme we’ve enjoyed so far this month.  Longer range guidance off of the European ensemble continues to support broad scale upper ridging across the Mid West and Ohio Valley and a corresponding warmer than average regime.  From a precipitation perspective, the next couple of weeks do look more active compared to the dry start to the month.  Case in point, the balance of the upcoming week will be dominated by a stalled frontal boundary.  While we’ll have to fine tune exactly where the front stalls, daily chances of showers and thunderstorms (scattered fashion) can be expected.

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Wednesday Morning Rambles…

1.) A narrow, but persistent band of downpours continues to fall just south of the metro this morning.  Places from Martinsville to Trafalgar and Shelbyville are enjoying needed rain this morning.

2.) Overall, a drier air mass will build into central Indiana today and Thursday (cooler, too) before moisture returns to close the week.  Scattered showers and embedded thunder are more likely Friday and again late Sunday into Monday.

3.)  Looking ahead, we notice a more active pattern is presented off the overnight GEFS model.  The heat ridge backs west and sets up a busy “ring of fire” pattern with a northwest flow aloft across our region.  We have a ways to go before developing consistency and overall confidence, but this is at least an encouraging sign.  The end result, should this come to fruition, would be a significantly wetter open to June.

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