Dec 08
It’s been a ridiculously busy day and a longer post will arrive late tonight, including the updated 7-day. Models continue to struggle on the evolution of things this weekend. The…
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Dec 05
1.) Rain builds back in late tonight and Tuesday morning and will favor the southern and eastern half of the state. Drier trends develop Tuesday afternoon as the moisture pulls northeast.
Forecast radar 11a Tuesday
2.) A surge of arctic air will pour into the region as we wrap up the work week, including single digit wind chills. Lows in the 10s and highs in the 20s can be expected Thursday and Friday.
Forecast temperature anomalies to close the work week.
3.) Despite the cold, snow chances look unimpressive, per the latest data. While we, personally, still believe there will be more of an arctic wave to deal with along the arctic boundary pressing Wednesday night into Thursday (enough to accumulate), modeling says “we’re crazy” and brings the arctic plunge in without much fanfare (flurries).
4.) Speaking of snow, modeling also says the 3rd wintry threat we spoke of Sunday (for about a week from now) arrives with a warm-up and is more of a liquid event. While we tend to think this is still a threat that could deal our region wintry conditions, it would be irresponsible of us not to convey the lower confidence (heck, modeling suggests we’re close to 60 degrees next Monday).
5.) Our thoughts on a snowy December began last summer as research began on the upcoming winter. It’s based off a variety of solutions, but leans heavily on the idea blocking would develop and help “lock in” an active pattern with just enough cold air to create the wintry “goods.” (Pressing cold and an active jet undercutting the cold to create winter storm potential). While bullish on snow (still are), we’ve never had out a very cold December forecast (instead only “slightly,” or 1 degree, below average). If the recent weekend trend is correct, it says the upcoming (10) day period we thought would essentially deliver a month’s worth of snow is incorrect. Sure that gives us the second half of the month to still make up for it, but it becomes increasingly difficult to see the wild model swings and inconsistency without relaying those inconsistencies to you, the viewer.
Our overall thinking remains (as stubborn as it may seem) on December, but please know we also see how this could bust. There’s a fine line between communicating both ideas to you. Confidence is lower than we would like it to be…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/monday-morning-rambles-2/
Nov 08
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Nov 02
A rainy and (at times) stormy night is ahead for central Indiana as a cold front approaches.
While scattered thunderstorms are impacting portions of central IN as we type this (6p and looking at you Whitestown), more widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will blow into town late tonight. Here’s an idea of what the radar may look like around 10p.
For most neighborhoods, expect 0.25″-0.50″ of needed rain tonight into the wee morning hours Thursday. There will be localized heavier totals through central Indiana.
Temperatures will be cooler Thursday, but will remain above normal- generally topping out in the middle and upper 60s in the afternoon before falling Thursday evening. Cooler air will be with us to close the work week (upper 50s to around 60° for most for highs Friday).
Our next storm system has it’s eyes on the area Tuesday evening into Wednesday, but looks less significant when compared to 24-48 hours ago. We’ll continue to keep an eye on things.
GFS ensemble members aren’t terribly “excited” about our next storm potential next week.
There continues to be a great deal of interest around colder times and a pattern change around mid-month. We want to reiterate a couple things:
1.) Wholesale significant pattern changes can (and normally do) wreck havoc on medium and long range data. To our fellow weather friends out there who love to look at run-to-run operational data, expect wild swings as the pattern transition gets underway mid month.
2.) While we’re fully in the camp of a major reversal to cold, we caution the initial pattern transition will likely feature a “step-down” process before shifting to more of a true winter-like pattern (likely complete with plenty of storminess; hello snow lovers) from the Thanksgiving to Christmas period.
Finally, our complete 2016-2017 IndyWx.com Winter Outlook can be found here.
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Oct 16
Before we talk about the warmth, we have some showers and embedded thunder to deal with across parts of the region today. Best rain chances today will be along and north of I-70, but a few showers could scoot south later this afternoon. We note most concentrated rain should fall through the early afternoon hours before moving out to allow for a dry evening.
Forecast radar 12p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com
Forecast radar 2p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com
We get back to a dry pattern Monday and Tuesday. Along with the dry conditions, unseasonably warm temperatures can be expected. Along with the summer-like feel, very strong southwest winds will be noted (gusts to 30-40 MPH).
A strong SW flow will promote 30-40 MPH gusts early week. Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
The warmest temperature anomalies will be located over the Ohio Valley this week. Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
Highs Monday and Tuesday will top out in the lower to middle 80s and rival records across central IN. While that’s impressive enough, overnight lows of 65-70 are almost unheard of.
Overnight lows Tuesday morning will be close to 70 degrees. Courtesy of Weatherbell.com
Cooler air will begin to move in by late week as a trough replaces the warm ridge. While we’re very confident on the much cooler feel, details in regards to the specifics around rain timing and amounts remain “muddy” at best. We’ll forecast best rain chances to arrive Thursday, but caution this may have to be fine tuned as we move forward. Highs that were in the 80s for early week will crash late week (upper 50s to lower 60s).
European ensemble shows the cool and unsettled late week pattern. Courtesy of Weatherbell.com
As of now, next weekend looks dry and cool, but it was only yesterday that rain chances looked like they may continue into the early portions of the weekend. Stay tuned. As previously mentioned, temperatures will be much cooler (upper 30s to lower 40s for lows and lower to middle 60s for highs).
Complete 7-day will be posted later!
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