For a change, the past (7) days has been generous to central Indiana from a precipitation perspective. As we’ll discuss, a new rain maker awaits this week.
A look at rainfall totals over the past 7 days, courtesy of weatherbell.com.
Officially, IND sits at 0.26″ above normal, month-to-date.
It’s also been an incredibly warm start to the month (IND is running 10° above normal, month-to-date) and that warm theme won’t change through the near-term.
An all-too-familiar pattern engulfs the country late week. This will showcase more “bonus” summer-like conditions, locally, that will include highs approaching 80° next weekend with a strong southerly flow in place. Additionally, early winter-like conditions will continue to impact the western high ground. The pattern definitely represents a Nina look.
The southeast ridge will provide more bonus summer-like conditions next weekend across the eastern half of the country.
In the shorter-term, a new rainmaker will move across the Ohio Valley Tuesday into Wednesday. This will spread showers and embedded thunder across the state Tuesday PM into Wednesday. In general, this storm system should deliver 0.50″ – 1″ of rain, but there will be locally heavier amounts.
Thereafter, dry times will settle in along with slightly cooler temperatures. Let’s remember it was only a few days ago where modeling suggested a “pop” of the season’s coldest air thus far. No longer is that the case, and while it will turn briefly cooler, temperatures will still remain above average.
A southerly air flow will return late week and help boost temperatures next weekend, along with continued dry times through the balance of the weekend. From this distance, our next storm system should arrive late Sunday or early Monday in the form of a cold front.
Looking longer-term, there are indications that colder conditions loom as we wrap up October and head into November and we’ll discuss this in more detail later this week…
This will be enough to send temperatures into the 85° to 90° range by the early to middle of next week. To shed some perspective on that, our averages for early October include low temperatures in the upper 40s and highs in the upper 60s. For at least a couple of days next week, overnight lows will be much closer to where our afternoon highs should be this time of year.
III. Ridging will return early next week and, though brief, a shot of late-summer heat will eject northeast across the Mid West and Ohio Valley. Sunday through Tuesday will feature temperatures that top out in the upper 80s to around 90°.
IV. A cold front will drop in by the middle of next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the frontal boundary, but the bigger story will be a dramatic change to a much cooler regime as we get set to put a wrap on the month of August. In fact, temperatures may grow cool enough to allow some 40s to develop across central and northern parts of the state at night. Meteorological summer sure looks like it’ll end with more of a fall-like feel…
As of now, we think the cold front will pass Friday evening and set-up another pleasant weekend with seasonable temperatures. The stretch of gorgeous August weekends’ appears to roll along.