This is a “locked and loaded” weather pattern that will require a great deal of attention over the next 2-3 weeks. We’ll have to take things one at a time, but the combination of strong storms to start, much colder air on the horizon, and the potential of wintry “fun and games” in the 6-10 day period is enough to hopefully distract you from the day-to-day news, and provide a little extra entertainment during these unprecedented times.

First things first and that’s the short-term storm situation:

All is quiet this evening, but a warm front currently draped from central IA, IL, and into southern IN will begin lifting north during the overnight. As this takes place, thunderstorms will erupt across northern Indiana late evening into the overnight hours before riding southeast into northern and central Ohio. A few stronger cells are possible, but most of these should remain below severe levels. Most of central Indiana should miss out on this activity.

With the warm front placed well north of the area tomorrow, the warmest temperatures of the spring thus far are expected. Additionally, that associated southwesterly flow will aid in moisture transport north through the day. Stepping outside tomorrow, you’ll certainly feel the difference with the increased warmth and humidity. Highs should top out in the middle 70s for most of central Indiana with dew points (shown below) climbing into the middle 60s.

The bulk of our Tuesday should be rain and storm free, but that will begin to change late tomorrow night as a new round of storms begins to organize. While high resolution guidance continues to struggle with the exact placement of this new round of storms, we’d encourage those across all of central and southern parts of the state to remain weather-aware tomorrow night and set those weather radio alerts to “on.” The primary concern of strong to severe storms that may develop late tomorrow night (mostly after 10p) includes large hail and the potential of damaging straight line wind. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) maintains a good chunk of the immediate region in a Slight Risk tomorrow night into the predawn hours Wednesday.

Finally, one last round of showers and thunderstorms will accompany a strong cold front late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning (most of these should remain below severe levels).

Thursday will feature much cooler and blustery conditions as that northwest flow develops.

Thankfully, high pressure will briefly gain control of our area as we close the work week and head into the first half of Easter weekend. This will allow calmer weather conditions to return, but “brief” is the key word.

By Easter, itself, a new system will deliver rain before potentially ending as wet snow late Sunday night.

Even colder air will follow early next week, and we’re not done where that came from. There are indications on this evening’s computer models that the upper air pattern may come together to allow for a rather significant “phased” storm system in the longer range. It’s certainly far too early to speculate on that, but whether there’s a strong storm or not, the combination of a developing negative EPO and MJO with eyes set to rumble through Phases 1,2, and 3 lead us to believe this isn’t just some fleeting chilly pattern. Instead, this is liable to take up residence for the better part of the upcoming 2-3 week period. Big storm or not in the Week 2 time frame, it’s a safe bet those along and north of the Ohio River or into the high ground of the east TN/ western NC mountains haven’t seen the last of the snow for the season.

Remember, we’re only the messenger…