Category: Weather Rambles

Long Stretch Of Wet Weather Ahead…

I. Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms will begin to dissipate this evening and tonight with the loss of daytime heating.  Some area rain gauges have already picked up between 0.50″ and 1″ of rain this afternoon and this will only serve to lay the ground work for further problems moving forward.

II. A growing shield of rain will engulf northern and central parts of the state Friday afternoon.  Initially, this will mostly be of the light to, at times, moderate variety.  Additionally, we’ll notice an increasingly stiff easterly flow as the afternoon and evening wear on.  Temperatures will fall from a high in the middle 70s into the 60s late Friday afternoon and evening.

III. A frontal boundary will remain draped across central parts of the state Saturday while the remnant circulation of what once was Tropical Storm Gordon pushes closer.  As such, rainfall intensity will increase as we move through the day Saturday- particularly by evening into the overnight, on into Sunday morning.  Periods of heavy rain can be expected during this time frame.  Rainfall rates will begin to diminish Sunday PM before moisture exits stage right Sunday evening.

By the time all is said and done, widespread 3″ to 5″ rainfall totals can be expected through the heart of the state, including Indianapolis, but there will be locally heavier totals upwards of 6″ to 7″ in spots.  Flooding, unfortunately, will result.  If you live near water ways please ensure to keep close tabs on water levels and expect rapid rises Saturday into Sunday.  Have a plan in place to escape to higher ground.

IV. After a week of excessive heat and humidity, the coming cooler regime will be welcome by most.  Temperatures most of Saturday and Sunday will remain in the 60s.  At times, “wind chills” (haven’t used that term in a while) will fall into the 50s.

Warmer times will return late next week as ridging re-establishes itself.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-stretch-of-wet-weather-ahead/

Wednesday Evening Rambles: Cool, Wet, & Blustery Weekend On Deck…

Gordon’s remnant moisture will claim headlines through the weekend.

I.  A cold front will approach Indiana Thursday and result in increased cloudiness AND a better chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms- especially during the afternoon and evening hours.  Though still warm and humid, temperatures will begin a “step down” process to eventually MUCH cooler readings this weekend.

II.  Unsettled weather will continue Friday into Saturday as the surface front settles south.  As an increasingly blustery easterly flow takes hold across central Indiana, cooler air will continue to “ooze” into the state.  Highs shouldn’t make it out of the 70s Friday with considerable cloudiness and showers around.

III.  Unseasonably cool air will be with us Saturday (most of the afternoon will be spent in the 60s for the majority of central IN, especially north of I-70). A stiff easterly flow and showers will continue.

IV.  The remnant moisture of Gordon will creep closer to the region Saturday PM before setting up shop Saturday night into Sunday evening.  This is the most concerning period for potentially excessive rainfall rates and localized flooding.  We still have time to watch things unfold, but the idea here is that widespread 2″ to 4″ totals are likely with locally heavier totals.  This is “beefed up” from this morning’s call of 2″ to 3″.  Stay tuned, especially if you live near water ways.

V.  Finally, the tropical moisture will surge northeast Sunday night and Monday and a cold front will sweep through the region.  This will set up a much drier and very pleasant period as we open up the new work week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wednesday-evening-rambles-cool-wet-blustery-weekend-on-deck/

Summer Feel Returns…

The past (10) days have been particularly pleasant across central Indiana, especially by late-July standards.  80% of the period has featured temperatures at, or below, normal, and the past couple of days have been impressively cool.  Hat tip to Sean Ash (@SeanWTHR) for the most recent stat: “Just the 12th time in 147 years of back-to-back July days in Indianapolis with a high of 72° or below.”  Rainfall has been plentiful across central Indiana, including widespread amounts of 1″ to 2″ with some reports of 3″ to 5″ over the past 48 hours.

After a warm open to the month, July has taken on a significantly cooler side as of late: Graphic courtesy of Midwestern Regional Climate Center

As we rumble into August, you knew that summer feel had to return, right?! 🙂

Forecast models are in agreement that an upper level ridge will expand across the Great Lakes region in the 6-10 day period.  This will deliver a return of warm-to-hot and muggy conditions to central Indiana- beginning this weekend into next week.

GEFS Days 6-10: Graphic courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com

EPS Days 6-10: Graphic courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com

While the next couple of days will continue the cooler than normal theme, temperatures will return to a “summery” feel over the weekend, continuing into next week.  Along with the warmer air will also come increasing humidity.  In short, we recommend incorporating a pool visit (or two) into your weekend schedule.  Highs will return into the upper 80s to around 90° and overnight lows will dip into the upper 60s to around 70°.  While warmer and certainly more humid than we’ve been, we still believe the hottest of the season is behind us (highs of 94° on July 4th and 14th).

Highs will top out a couple degrees either side of 90 this weekend. Graphic courtesy of weathermodels.com

While a more summer-like feel will replace the unseasonably cool close to the month and open to August, it sure looks like the hotter regime will be transitional.  The general consensus from data points towards a return of seasonable to below average temperatures along with a continuation of active times as mid-month approaches…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/summer-feel-returns/

Thursday Evening Video Update: “Hint” Of Fall On The Doorstep; Widespread Soaker Early Next Week…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/thursday-evening-video-update-hint-of-fall-on-the-doorstep-widespread-soaker-early-next-week/

Tuesday Morning Rambles: Drier Air Before Our Next Front…

I. Drier air will work into the region and limit rain chances today and Wednesday (isolated coverage at best). Highs will also warm back up to seasonal levels during the time.

Drier air will work into the Ohio Valley today and Wednesday. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

II. Our next frontal boundary will arrive Thursday afternoon.  Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening hours.  Behind the boundary, cooler and refreshing air will return to wrap up the work week.

Cooler, more refreshing air will return to wrap up the work week. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

III. We’re timing out our next storm system for a weekend arrival. While the weekend won’t be a wash out, rain chances will return late Saturday into Sunday. Forecast models differ on the specifics with respect to timing, track, and rainfall amounts and all will have to be fine tuned over the next few days.

The GFS is faster and more aggressive on weekend rain. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

Meanwhile, the European is slower with rain, bringing the bulk of precipitation in AFTER the weekend. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

IV. Longer range, we don’t see any significant heat on the immediate horizon. On that note, while we aren’t saying additional hot days won’t occur the rest of the way in, we continue to believe the hottest weather of the summer is behind us. The new European Weeklies in last night continued a seasonal to cooler than average theme for August into early September.  All images below are courtesy of weathermodels.com.

Days 10-17

Days 18-25

Days 25-32

Days 32-39

Days 38-45

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tuesday-morning-rambles-drier-air-before-our-next-front/