Category Archives: Weather Rambles

“Transitional” Is The Theme For Our Temperature Pattern Upcoming 10-14 Days; Precipitation Pattern? Not So Much…

Updated 05.10.22 @ 6:30a

There’s a reason we labeled the midweek pattern as a “taste” of summer. Thankfully, (speaking for most, I believe) we’re not ready to “lock and load” the summer like heat and humidity. In fact, we’ll get some relief from humidity by the latter stages of the work week. By early next week, highs will drop back into the lower 70s and overnight lows will fall into the 40s.

Pattern next week at this time will be feeling mighty different around these parts as a trough carves itself out across the Great Lakes/ Northeast.

Despite the roller coaster ride the next couple of weeks will likely deliver from a temperature perspective (remember, we have the MJO to deal with again now, too), the pattern, as a whole, looks drier than normal over the upcoming 10-14 days.

While the pattern is likely one to continue featuring wild swings in temperatures to wrap up the month, most of the frontal systems seem like they won’t deliver excessive rainfall amounts from this distance. It should be noted the European data above has plenty of support from its American and Canadian counterparts.

No Comments Client, Ensemble Discussion, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, MJO, Rain, Spring, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles

Blocky Pattern Leads To Drier, Cooler Stretch; Looking Ahead To A Return Of Active Times…

Updated 04.26.22 @ 5:30a

Now that our cold front is to our east, it’s time to look ahead to the next weather maker. Headlines over the next 48 hours will come from patchy frost potential (or “widespread” if north of the city, itself).

Weak systems will try and push into the Ohio Valley over the next 72 hours but most, if not all, of these systems should run into a drier, more stable airmass, locally and a rather significant weakening of any sort of organized areas of rain.

There will be times of mostly cloudy conditions and light shower chances midweek but most, if not all, of any sort of “organized” rain chances will hold off until the weekend. What at times will look like appreciable rain heading in our direction will diminish in significant fashion as it pushes east into the region. The blocking pattern will breakdown and allow more organized rain and storm chances to enter the picture from the west this weekend.

Rain and storm chances should increase in earnest Saturday night into Sunday morning, including the potential of locally heavy downpours.

Another storm system awaits on deck for a Sunday evening and Monday morning arrival…

More on this and more in this evening’s client video update.

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Client, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, Spring, T-storms, Weather Rambles

More On The Upcoming Couple Of Weeks…

Updated 04.06.22 @ 6a

When we look at the “big driver” teleconnections over the next 10-14 days, it’s easy to understand why the active weather pattern is expected to continue. The NAO is expected to run predominantly negative over the next couple weeks (which favors eastern chill), but the EPO is expected to fluctuate between positive and negative phases and the MJO is showing signs of pushing into Phases 7 and 8 (favors eastern warmth this time of year).

The temperature regime over the next couple of weeks will fluctuate between periods of above normal warmth and well below normal chill. Despite a significant bump in the temperature regime next week, the unseasonably chilly conditions will return with authority late next week, including the threat of frost.

As you’d imagine in this kind of setup, the precipitation pattern will also go through a period of fluctuation. The heaviest precipitation anomalies will center in on the middle of next week through the latter part of the week and may also be met with the potential of severe weather during this time frame (targeting next Thursday for this threat, though this is subject to change as we draw closer and may have to be fine tuned).

Much more in tomorrow’s long range video discussion which will be posted Thursday night due to morning travel.

No Comments Client, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, Severe Weather, snow, Spring, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles

Much Warmer Day; Timing Out The Arrival Of Storms…

Updated 03.30.22 @ 6:38a

Our region will undergo a weather whiplash of sorts over the next 24-36 hours. We’ll briefly spike into the low-mid 70s with a strong southerly wind this afternoon- only to crash Thursday, including the opportunity for snow showers by evening.

The “transition” will be met with rain and storms tonight. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) includes southern Indiana in a “slight” risk of severe weather and this is for storms that will arrive this evening. The primary concern from a severe perspective is damaging straight line winds. The idea here is that the approaching line of storms may include a couple “bowing” segments across southern Indiana (along and south of a line from Terre Haute to Bloomington) roughly between 7p and 10p west to east.

Temperatures will then fall through the day Thursday and wrap around moisture will begin to mix with and transition to wet snow showers Thursday evening into Friday morning… (Remember, we’re only the messenger).

No Comments Client, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, Severe Weather, snow, Spring, T-storms, Weather Rambles, Windy

Chill Isn’t Finished Yet…

Updated 03.16.22 @ 6:42a

While relative warmth will dominate headlines in the short-term, there’s plenty of reason not to buy into the idea that we’re finished with the chilly late winter temperatures just yet.

First, let’s start with the MJO. We’re in Phase 2 now, but what is most intriguing is the duration spent in Phase 3 (favors a pressing trough east and south similar to what image 2 shows below).

Should the MJO continue to move forward with similar amplitude then milder conditions would prevail as we get set to wrap up the month.

By that point, however, we’ll have to pay particularly close attention to the EPO and NAO phases. There are growing signals that both teleconnections will favor a return of colder than normal conditions prior to closing out the month. Couple that with the MJO movement and confidence continues to increase that we aren’t quite finished with the chill just yet. The question then becomes what takes place in April? We’ll lean into that with more detail during tomorrow’s update.

No Comments Client, EPO, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, MJO, NAO, Spring, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles