Category Archives: Weather Rambles

Wetter Pattern On Deck…

Updated 06.07.23 @ 5:58a

While some backyards have been lucky enough to cash in on downpours over the past several weeks, the large majority of our region has suffered through a dry, to much drier than average, period. Thankfully, the evolving pattern over the next couple weeks will begin to provide much better opportunities of more widespread, organized rain. While still not yet considered a truly “wet” pattern (remember, we believe that kicks in mid to late summer), it certainly will be much more active than what we’ve seen over the past 4-6 weeks, overall.

More specifically, we’re targeting this upcoming Sunday to get the wetter party started. While still too early for specific rain amounts, a good chunk of central Indiana and the Ohio Valley as a whole should enjoy a widespread rain.

Additional organized rain events are then slated for the middle of next week and the following weekend.

Client, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, T-storms, Weather Rambles

Extended Period Of Dry Weather; Warming Trend Next Week…

Updated 05.20.23 @ 6a

A cold front settled south across Indiana Friday evening. Most area rain gauges picked up anywhere between a tenth and 1/3 of an inch but a few lucky neighborhoods cashed in on up to half an inch. Whatever amount of rain you received last night, cherish it.

As we look forward, an extended dry period and quiet weather can be expected. This overall dry, calm pattern will prevail through the entire week ahead. As moisture levels slowly begin to increase over the holiday and all-important Indy 500 weekend, small rain chances may sneak back into the forecast, but even this is very unlikely from this distance.

High pressure will result in dry skies and plenty of sunshine in the week ahead (despite some haze from time to time, courtesy of those Canadian wild fires).

The focus is really just on temperatures over the next few days. The cool and dry airmass that reinforced itself behind our frontal passage will remain in control through Monday and then we’ll see moderating temperatures through the upcoming work week. Despite the temperature “uptick,” dry air will remain in place through the week. Great times for outdoor activities, no doubt, in the week ahead.

Client, Dew points, Forecast Discussion, Indy 500, Memorial Day weekend, Rain, Weather Rambles

Now This Is More Like It…

Updated 05.06.23 @ 7:11a

A new pattern is emerging (at least for the time being) and will offer up a much more typical feel by May standards, along with periods of storms as we navigate the early portion of the new week.

The good news is that our Saturday continues to look dry.

Attention will shift off to our west and northwest later this evening for the potential of local overnight rumbles on into Sunday morning. This will be the onset of more of an unsettled pattern, including multiple storm complexes to track at times through Tuesday.

Severe weather parameters certainly aren’t “off the charts” but there will be enough energy and moisture to signal a localized damaging wind threat Sunday and Monday with any storm cluster(s) that flare up.

Rainfall amounts won’t be uniform but localized 1”+ amounts can be expected with more of a general 0.50” to 1” area-wide rain in the Sunday through Tuesday timeframe.

Drier air and a brief ridge of high pressure will eliminate rain and storm chances Wednesday through Friday.

Unfortunately, as it looks now, moisture levels will rise significantly heading into Mother’s Day weekend and a return of unsettled weather will follow during this time period.

Client, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms, Weather Rambles

More Rumblings Around The Mid-May Pattern Change…

Updated 04.27.23 @ 2:07a

May will open with a continuation of unseasonably chilly weather. We’re even looking at the potential of an additional frost threat early next week.

But there are changes in the offing just beyond the 10th, or so. The NAO trends neutral.

And the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is heading towards the balmy (for May standards) Phase 6.

While there will be some questions with respect to the longevity of the warm-up, we should see a notable flip in the pattern just beyond the first 1/3 of the month, including much warmer weather across our neck of the woods and a good chunk of the east as a whole.

I would anticipate models to trend warmer in that Weeks 2-3 timeframe over the course of the next couple of days.

Client, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, MJO, NAO, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles

Note On Late Week…

Updated 04.18.23 @ 7:15p

Today’s guidance is starting to hone in on the most likely scenario as we close out the work week and head into the weekend. After a couple days of what sure seemed like “far fetched” solutions being printed out by the GFS, it’s trended much closer towards what the European was showing this morning. The model is actually more like a “blend” of the two ideas from this morning.

We continue to believe the initial wave of moisture will arrive Thursday evening (after a very warm and dry day). This will then be followed by a second surge of moisture Friday night into Saturday morning (lasting into Saturday afternoon across eastern Indiana). This second wave of precipitation will likely be more widespread and heavier for the eastern half of the state during the aforementioned time frame. As colder air gets pulled into the region, wrap-around precipitation will mix with wet snow (yet again) Saturday night into Sunday morning. High pressure should then build overhead allowing for the coldest air to settle in Sunday night and Monday morning (potentially with a repeat Tuesday morning depending on the timing of our next system). If skies clear as anticipated, the potential remains for overnight lows to dip into the upper 20s.

As mentioned above, forecast models are now in much better agreement regarding rainfall placement and amounts (heaviest across central and eastern IN) with this event.

We’ll see if these trends hold firm overnight and be sure to cover this (and more) in our Client video discussion Wednesday morning!

Make it a relaxing evening!

Client, Forecast Discussion, Heavy Rain, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weather Rambles