Category: Weather Rambles

Nov 19

Evening Update On Thursday Rain; Weekend Mischief…

Quick update this evening just to touch base on the afternoon/ evening model data.

We’re still anticipating a dry Wednesday, but caution that conditions will be ripe overnight to result in areas of dense fog Wednesday morning. It’ll be wise to allow extra time to work and school in the morning just to be safe.

As we look ahead, rain will return to the region Thursday as an area of low pressure lifts into the Great Lakes region. This will drag a cold front through our region Thursday night into Friday morning. Looking at the most updated high resolution data suggests the steadiest rain will arrive around or just after lunchtime Thursday.

With that said, rainfall amounts aren’t anticipated to be significant. Most will be between 0.10” and 0.25” with a few heavier totals.

After a quiet Friday, moisture will overspread the region once again this weekend. This is the “follower” system modeling has struggled with over the past week. We were confident this would be a local player due to the overall upper level pattern, despite the inconsistent modeling. Sure enough, the consensus of modeling this evening brings in another system in the Saturday-Sunday time frame. With marginally cold air, this isn’t expected to be a widespread winter weather maker, but we continue to closely monitor the potential of localized “more meaningful” wintry precipitation across portions of the central and northern Ohio Valley. Note the wide range of possibilities individual GFS ensemble members print off:

We’ll continue to keep close tabs on things the next couple days and have a fresh update posted early tomorrow morning reviewing the latest overnight data. Specifics should become much more clear with regard to the weekend system once we get to Thursday…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/evening-update-on-thursday-rain-weekend-mischief/

Nov 12

Tuesday Morning Rambles: Record Cold Indeed…

I. Number-Busting Cold: The western half of central Indiana is experiencing downright frigid conditions this morning. Skies that cleared out and combined with the fresh snow pack, along with strong cold air advection overnight now find themselves in the middle single digits! Officially at IND, the low temperature of 9° (as of the 7a hour) sets a record not only for the day, but is the earliest in the fall season that the temperature has fallen into the single digits.

II. Cold Remains: For some perspective on the current cold, average temperatures this time of year include lows in the upper 30s and highs in the middle 50s. Safe to say we won’t be anywhere near those numbers over the next 6-7 days. Even after we pull out of the arctic intrusion over the next couple of days, temperatures will remain well below average through the weekend.

III. Fast Moving Clipper: We’ll keep close tabs on a fast moving clipper system Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but as of now, only expect scattered light snow showers across north-central Indiana Thursday morning with this system (no accumulation anticipated). After this system, we’re talking about a rather dry forecast into early next week. The next chance of precipitation (light rain) would come Monday, but the key word here is “light.”

IV. Looking Ahead: We’ll have a more extensive long range update later this evening. One of the items of interest is the way modeling handles the MJO propagation. While the European isn’t nearly as amplified, the American modeling wants to take the MJO into Phase 2 towards Thanksgiving. Phase 2 this time of year would argue for widespread colder than normal conditions. Again, much more on the long range pattern a bit later.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tuesday-morning-rambles-record-cold-indeed/

Oct 29

Tuesday Morning Rambles: A Lot To Talk About…

I. A cold front will slip through central Indiana this evening. After a high near 60 today, temperatures will be stuck in the 40s most of the day tomorrow. To add insult to injury, rain will overspread the state from the southwest late tonight into Wednesday morning.

There will be brief lull in the rain Wednesday evening before rain becomes widespread yet again early Halloween morning. All total, many central Indiana rain gauges can anticipate around 1″ of rainfall with this storm system.

II. Speaking of Halloween, it’ll be important to dress warmly when out and about trick-or-treating Thursday evening. Falling temperatures, increasingly gusty winds, and snow flurries/ scattered snow showers can be expected. How cold? Temperatures will be falling into the lower 30s Thursday evening with a gusty wind (around 30 MPH) resulting in wind chills in the upper 10s to middle 20s.

Precipitation will transition to light snow showers/ flurries Thursday PM.
Wind chills will fall into the upper 10s to middle 20s Thursday PM.

III. The first lake effect snow event of the fall will take place this weekend. Accumulating snow is expected in the snow belt regions- especially Saturday night. Otherwise, the first official freeze of the season can be expected for many across the Ohio Valley this weekend.

IV. Longer term, I’d get used to the cold, more wintry weather. The pattern continues to look much colder than average and active as we rumble through the early part of the month. (In case you didn’t see it last night, our November Outlook can be found here).

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tuesday-morning-rambles-a-lot-to-talk-about/

Oct 23

VIDEO: Saturday Washout And Reasons To Buy The Cold Early November Idea; Winter ’19-’20 Chatter…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-saturday-washout-and-reasons-to-buy-the-cold-early-november-idea-winter-19-20-chatter/

Oct 18

Friday Morning Rambles…

I. A mostly dry, but breezy weekend is dialed up! A couple light showers may scoot across western portions of the state Saturday, but “light” is the key word.

South winds are expected to gust between 20-25 MPH at times over the weekend. This will deliver milder air with high temperatures reaching the upper 60s to around 70° Saturday and Sunday.

II. An active week is on tap next week with (2) strong cold fronts slated to move through the region.

The first boundary will result in widespread showers and embedded thunder Monday. Most can expect around half an inch of rain with this system to open the work week. Cooler and blustery conditions will return into midweek.

The second cold front will move though late Thursday into Friday and feature another quick pop of rain (relatively light amounts expected at this time) followed by the coldest air mass so far this autumn heading into next weekend.

The air mass will be cold enough to ignite for the first lake effect snow outbreak of the season next weekend.

Finally, we still need to monitor the prospects of additional upper level energy that may try and result in a cold rain or wintry mix just before Halloween. Regardless, Halloween is looking quite chilly this year…

III. Our official annual winter outlook will be released later this month. The latest sea surface temperature anomalies have to make central and eastern winter weather lovers drool. The persistent warmth in the NE PAC should promote a more sustained western ridge/ central and eastern trough this winter when compared to the past couple. More on this and many other factors (including the Modoki Nino event) in the near future…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/friday-morning-rambles-5/