January to date is running 2 degrees above normal at IND. That number will drop significantly this week with the punch of arctic air inbound.
After a snowy week last week, we’ll attempt to make another run this week. Despite model inconsistencies, we focus on Sunday morning, Tuesday night-Wednesday morning, and late week for accumulating snow prospects. More on that in a minute.
Note the difference in snow cover, locally, when compared to this time last year. Can we get things to look similar to image 2 below come late week? We’re on the playing field, at the very least.
The arctic surge of bitter air will blast into central IN Sunday morning late into the afternoon. Temperatures will be on the plunge, and reach the single digits come evening. Wind chill values will go below zero Sunday afternoon.
Forecast temperatures around lunchtime Sunday. Source: Weatherbell.com
Forecast temperatures Sunday evening. Source: Weatherbell.com.
A blast of snow showers and embedded squalls will accompany the arctic surge Sunday morning and may accumulate up to an inch in spots. Strong and gusty winds will create brief whiteout conditions from time to time.
We eye the Tuesday night and Wednesday time frame for the next opportunity of accumulating snow. A “plowable” snow may be in the works during this time frame and we’ll continue to keep a close eye on things.
Wednesday morning as depicted by the 12z GFS. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com
Things remain very active moving forward. While the model specifics differ significantly at this juncture (no surprise ;-)), it’s important to look at the overall picture and see the potential of a fairly widespread winter event late next week.
Stay tuned. There are significant differences between the potential of this event and the reality of the past several more significant precipitation makers. – Namely a blocking cold high to the north as the more significant moisture arrives. This will help supply the cold and limit the northward track to a point. Is it a mostly snow event or do we get into the wintry mix potential? Many questions will have to be answered in the days ahead.
2.) A significant warm-up is still on schedule for late week, centered on Friday, where temperatures will likely push to, or exceed, 60 degrees as ridging builds in. Image courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com.
3.) The warmth will be brief, however, as a colder pattern returns (thank you positive PNA), including an interesting look for winter storm potential across the east days 8-10. (No need to get fancy with specifics at this juncture).
4.) The significant cold over the past 7 days has really eaten away at the warm start to the month, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.
5.) Nearly 44% of the Lower 48 is snow covered at present. That compares to 25.6% of the Nation covered in snow for the same time last year.
