Jan 14
Updated 01.14.22 @ 6:05p With each passing the day, the desperation from central Indiana snow lovers is being felt more and more. 😉 This weekend’s significant (memorable in many instances)…
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Dec 28
Updated 12.28.21 @ 7:52p
We’ve laid out our ideas and there’s certainly a lot on the table, but we’re now at the point to see whether or not the ground work that’s been laid will come to fruition. The active pattern has arrived and it’s this 10-day period of transition that we continue to believe will ultimately usher in a more persistent and prolonged cold stretch in the January 10th through 31st period.
The MJO is the kicker here and looks like we’re heading into Phase 8 (a notorious phase for eastern cold in January).
Do we stall in 8 or loop back into 7 for another late month tour through this cold phase? Time will tell.
Meanwhile, the PNA continues to look like it’s heading neutral to maybe even positive down the road.
More on this and other teleconnections early in the morning as our hectic Christmas schedule transitions back to normal!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/time-to-put-up-or-shut-up/
Dec 14
Updated 12.14.21 @ 5:25p Wholesale pattern changes are always challenging to forecast- but equally as fascinating. All indications continue to point towards a rather significant shakeup in the regime towards…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/new-thoughts-on-the-pattern-change-on-deck/
Nov 27
Updated 11.27.21 @ 5:56a
The theme of the better part of the autumn season has been a story of contradicting signals- teleconnections and MJO alike. When we look ahead to the beginning of meteorological winter (Dec. 1st), it sure appears that will continue to be the story. For a brief moment the East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) tries to go negative. This is interesting in and of itself as only a couple days ago the EPO was forecast positive during this period.
Meanwhile, the PNA is forecast negative to open the month.
The “wildcard” in this entire December outcome has to do with the MJO. If (still a big if) we can get things to amplify, then a whip around the historically December cold phases (7, 8, and 1) appear in order.
If the MJO doesn’t get in the game, the pattern, at best, will be one of continued transition (colder and warmer than normal periods) and that’s what the majority of ensemble guidance currently shows. Without a favorable MJO, it’s tough to see how meaningful, more sustained arctic air can get into the mix, locally.
As far as storm systems of note, we’re in an incredibly quiet period and that looks to continue through the upcoming 5-6 days. We’ll keep eyes to our north where weak systems will zip by in the fast flow aloft, but most, if not all, of these should remain to our north and east. It’s not until early next weekend (looks like Friday or early Saturday as of now) when our next system of more significance is slated to impact the area.
War Eagle and happy Iron Bowl Saturday! 😀
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-rambles-on-iron-bowl-saturday/
Oct 06
Updated 10.06.21 @ 9a I. Unsettled conditions will continue through the end of the work week. A “cut off” low pressure system will begin to lift north today and pull…
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