A rainy and (at times) stormy night is ahead for central Indiana as a cold front approaches.
While scattered thunderstorms are impacting portions of central IN as we type this (6p and looking at you Whitestown), more widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will blow into town late tonight. Here’s an idea of what the radar may look like around 10p.
For most neighborhoods, expect 0.25″-0.50″ of needed rain tonight into the wee morning hours Thursday. There will be localized heavier totals through central Indiana.
Temperatures will be cooler Thursday, but will remain above normal- generally topping out in the middle and upper 60s in the afternoon before falling Thursday evening. Cooler air will be with us to close the work week (upper 50s to around 60° for most for highs Friday).
Our next storm system has it’s eyes on the area Tuesday evening into Wednesday, but looks less significant when compared to 24-48 hours ago. We’ll continue to keep an eye on things.
GFS ensemble members aren’t terribly “excited” about our next storm potential next week.
There continues to be a great deal of interest around colder times and a pattern change around mid-month. We want to reiterate a couple things:
1.) Wholesale significant pattern changes can (and normally do) wreck havoc on medium and long range data. To our fellow weather friends out there who love to look at run-to-run operational data, expect wild swings as the pattern transition gets underway mid month.
2.) While we’re fully in the camp of a major reversal to cold, we caution the initial pattern transition will likely feature a “step-down” process before shifting to more of a true winter-like pattern (likely complete with plenty of storminess; hello snow lovers) from the Thanksgiving to Christmas period.
Finally, our complete 2016-2017 IndyWx.com Winter Outlook can be found here.
Tuesday will remain rain-free across the region, along with pleasant temperatures and humidity levels (mid 70s after a low in the lower 50s).
Rainfall amounts don’t look particularly impressive; generally 0.10″-0.25″ during the Wednesday night-Thursday morning time frame.
The cool air flowing in behind the front is impressive though. In fact, highs both Thursday and Friday will likely only reach the lower 60s (if that).
Despite the chilly air that will be with us to wrap up the work week, ensemble data is in excellent agreement on a significant warmer than average regime developing under a big eastern ridge in the 6-10 day. This will likely promote highs into the lower 80s next week for a few days. Impressive, no doubt, considering we’ll be rumbling through the second half of October by that point.
2.) HRRR futurecast radar delivers thunderstorms into central IN around the lunchtime hour.
3.) Scattered thunderstorms remain Thursday (some strong to severe), but drier air will briefly push in across the northern half of the region Friday. We think from Indianapolis and points north, it’ll be a very pleasant end to the work week. That said, “briefly” is the key word. Moisture will surge north again Saturday and Sunday and isolated to scattered storms will follow suit.
4.) Attention next week will shift to the tropics. There are many more questions than answers at this point, but understand the potential is there for significant tropical troubles next week. Intensity and track are far from etched in stone, but if your travels take you to the Gulf Coast, we suggest you remain abreast of the latest developments- particularly the southeastern FL coast and the north-central Gulf Coast.
2.) The aforementioned cold front will sweep through the state tonight and allow a much drier and cooler air mass to push in for the weekend. We’ll enjoy a downright pleasant feel this weekend, including lots of sunshine. Enjoy!
3.) Dry weather should continue into early next week, but wet and stormy weather will return as early as Tuesday, continuing into the latter portions of the week.
This is the start of what should be a rather wet period for mid and late month.
4.) This is also a continued “transient” pattern through the end of the month, meaning we really don’t see any sort of sustained dry, hot weather in the foreseeable future…
We’ll go through a quiet period during the afternoon hours before a second surge of storms takes aim on the region tomorrow night into Thursday morning (again, understanding we’ll have to “sure up” timing as we go).
Additional storm complexes will follow Thursday into Friday before that drier air gets here. Some of these could be strong to severe.
Looking ahead, after a dry weekend and open to next week, indications point towards a return of wet and active times as we approach Day 10. Long range ensemble data backs up the wet, stormy look nicely, and there’s really no end in sight…
The teleconnections aren’t much help in trying to generate longer term thoughts. They would favor more of a “normal” period temperature-wise, locally. (BTW, thanks to the fine folks at MAD US Weather and ESRL for the data below).
Looking at some of the model data, the general consensus is for a warm look to go through the back half of the month, but we caution that we can’t simply “broad brush” the forecast through the EOM as warm and relatively quiet (a note on that in a moment).
As mentioned above, despite an overall warm look on the models there will likely be periods of cooler “jabs” and it sure looks like a rather transient pattern to us across the Mid West and Ohio Valley, featuring more of the sustained heat across the Southwest region. Transient patterns usually also yield for potential wetness and we note the GFS Ensembles trending in that direction to wrap up the month.
In the shorter term, there will also be localized heavy downpours, but it’s a continued case of “haves and have nots.” There won’t be any particular rhyme or reason to the specific placement of heavy, gully-washer type showers and storms mid week.
