Category: Weather Rambles

Oct 27

Friday Morning Rambles: Blast Of Arctic Air; Halloween Night Snow And More On November…

Updated 10.27.23 @ 7:09a

I. Most of our Friday will be rain-free and unseasonably pleasant. Enjoy as time is ticking. A cold front arrives tonight with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances after dark, continuing through the overnight. Most area rain gauges will accumulate 0.10” to 0.25” with this initial wave of rain, but there will be a few lucky folks that pick up 0.50” +.

II. A second, more widespread, round of rain will push across central Indiana Saturday night and Sunday morning followed by a potential break through most of the daytime Sunday. One final round of rain will then arrive Sunday night into the predawn hours Monday. Look for nearly steady or slowly falling temperatures into the upper 40s Sunday and highs remaining stuck in the 40s area wide Monday.

III. As attention shifts to Halloween, itself, a vigorous piece of upper level energy will dive into the Ohio Valley. Originating in Alberta, this will officially be the season’s first Alberta Clipper.

This feature will offer up a round of gusty winds and snow showers Halloween night into the predawn hours Wednesday.

We’ll wake up to temperatures in the 20s and ‘chills in the 10s Wednesday morning.

IV. We’ll dive in to our November pattern in greater detail with a video this weekend, but as of now, the early call is for a fairly typical November with many “ups and downs” and an overall transitional regime through the bulk of the month. Again, more on this and the associated pattern drivers a bit later!

Make it a great Friday!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/friday-morning-rambles-blast-of-arctic-air-halloween-night-snow-and-more-on-november/

Oct 23

Dinner Time Rambles: Prospects Of HVY Rain On The Increase And Brief, Yet Potent Early Season Arctic Jab…

Updated 10.23.23 @ 5:45p

I. Today’s model suite continues to suggest quite the unsettled stretch of weather awaits for pre-Halloween festivities. I know, please don’t shoot the messenger. The culprit? A strong autumn cold front stalling out for a time in response to waves of energy riding along the boundary. The end result will likely be a widespread swath of 1″+ rains over the weekend with a more localized 2″+ band. Details will have to be fine tuned as we get closer, but folks with outdoor activities and ag/ harvest ’23 interests should plan on a rough stretch of weather in the Saturday through Monday timeframe.

Multiple rounds of moderate-heavy rain are becoming likely over the pre-Halloween weekend.

II. The coldest air so far this fall season will come rushing in on the heels of all of the aforementioned rain in the 8-10 day timeframe. Today’s European guidance is going all-in on a potent early season “jab” of arctic air, including highs around freezing and lows deep into the 20s. Perhaps extreme? Certainly, but this also has merit given where the pattern is. Though this will likely only be a brief intrusion of bitter air (at least by early November standards), I’d certainly go ahead and plan on the growing season coming to a screeching halt in just a little over a week from today.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/dinner-time-rambles-prospects-of-hvy-rain-on-the-increase-and-brief-yet-potent-early-season-arctic-jab/

Oct 14

Saturday Morning Rambles…

Updated 10.14.23 @ 7:43a I. An upper low and trough of low pressure will lead to a return of cloudiness, additional nuisance variety showers along with gusty winds and falling…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/saturday-morning-rambles-12/

Oct 10

Lunchtime Rambles: Time To Start Thinking About Stocking That Wood Pile…

Updated 10.10.23 @ 12:53p

I. A warm front will lift north through Indiana Wednesday. This will serve as a focal point for locally heavy rain across the northern tier of counties Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Most high resolution modeling keeps central Indiana out of the heavy rain axis but a passing shower is certainly possible.

II. A cold front and associated area of low pressure will rumble across the Ohio Valley Friday with more widespread rain (embedded thunder) impacting central Indiana Friday evening and Friday night.

III. A cold core upper low will drop southeast Sunday into Monday. With the cold air aloft and just enough daytime heating, showers (potentially mixed with graupel) will develop. Otherwise, anticipate a “raw” close to the weekend and open to the new work week.

IV. Our recent chilly turn will only be reinforced that much further behind the passage of Friday’s cold front. Most of next week is looking below to well below normal. Time to start thinking about stocking up that wood pile. Long Range charts show another big blast of the coldest air so far this season the following week…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/lunchtime-rambles-time-to-start-thinking-about-stocking-that-wood-pile/

Sep 17

A Quiet Week With A Warming Trend; More Active Week 2?

Updated 09.17.23 @ 9:14a

Just enough energy will be around today to keep scattered, mainly light, showers in the mix into the evening hours. Most area rain gauges won’t collect significant rain but a few thunderstorms could drop a quick downpour in isolated fashion later this afternoon into the early evening.

A secondary disturbance will approach from the northwest Tuesday and provide another opportunity for a few showers, primarily northwest of the city. Most of these should dissipate before moving into central Indiana. All in all, we’re looking at a very quiet week with a significant warming trend.

A calm, mostly dry week is in store for the region.
Temperatures will return to well above normal levels this week.

Highs will run into the middle to upper 80s by the mid and latter part of the week with dry conditions.

Uneventful weather will carry the day through the weekend. While we’re watching a more significant storm system approaching early in Week 2, modeling differs on the specific handling. The European drives most of the energy well south of our neck of the woods and paints a continuation of our dry stretch. The GFS (shown below) is more excited about delivering rain early next week. We’ll watch how trends continue to evolve through the coming days. Make it a great Sunday!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/a-quiet-week-with-a-warming-trend-more-active-week-2/