Category: Unseasonably Warm

Oct 01

Welcome To October…

screen-shot-2016-10-01-at-10-02-29-amHighlights:

  • Improving weekend weather
  • Dry, warmer open to the work week
  • Strong late week cold front

Slow Improvements…The “cut off” upper low that’s plagued the region for the past few days will slowly begin to lift north this weekend.  Eventually it’ll get absorbed into the westerlies and get outta’ here!  The end result will be a slowly improving weekend.  Rain coverage will be greater today than Sunday, but less than Friday! 🙂  Slow moving showers and embedded thunder will be most numerous this afternoon before slowly diminishing tonight.  While we’ll have to maintain mention of a shower Sunday, most folks will remain dry.

The work week will get off to a dry start along with moderating temperatures. Highs by mid week will reach the lower 80s as a southwesterly air flow dominates ahead of an approaching strong autumn front.

While timing still needs to be fine tuned, we’re focusing in on the cold front passing through central IN Friday morning.  Ahead of the boundary, scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected followed by an abrubt NW wind shift and a MUCH cooler air mass for the weekend.  Speaking of cool, it wouldn’t surprise us to see some neighborhood lows into the upper 30s next weekend.

It is October, after all…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″ (locally heavier totals)

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/welcome-to-october/

Sep 24

Changes Brewing…

screen-shot-2016-09-24-at-8-07-32-amHighlights:

  • Dry weekend
  • Rain arrives late Sunday night/ early Monday
  • Feeling much more like fall next week

Heat Is Limited…Despite areas of low clouds and fog, we’re looking at a mostly dry weekend. A large temperature contrast will be noted from northeast parts of the state to the southwest corner this afternoon as a backdoor cold front continues to press south.  Showers will build in late Sunday night (well after most folks head to bed).  This is in association with an autumn cold front that will sweep through the region Monday morning.  Showers will continue through the morning hours before a northwest wind shift helps usher in a drier and much cooler air mass Monday afternoon.  You’ll want to reach for the jacket and your favorite pumpkin beverage Monday evening…

Unseasonably cool air will be with us for the balance of the upcoming work week, along with a northwest flow.  It’ll feel much more like fall and the cooler, drier air mass will really help ignite the fall color change across central IN.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/changes-brewing-2/

Sep 23

Much Cooler Air On Deck…

screen-shot-2016-09-23-at-7-11-26-amHighlights:

  • Dry, warm close to the work week
  • Warm weekend
  • Much cooler air awaits

Summer Feel Gives Way To An Autumn Chill…A backdoor cold front will press into central IN over the weekend and will serve as a focal point for increased clouds at times (northern portions of the state today and more of central IN Saturday).  While an isolated to widely scattered shower is possible with this front, most will remain rain-free straight through the weekend.  Temperatures will remain well above normal across the region.

A stronger cold front will march towards the area to open the work week.  Showers and embedded thunder will accompany the frontal boundary as it pushes through the region.  We’ll then note a marked NW wind shift by evening and that will help usher in a true push of fall air.  A stretch of mornings with lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s during the day will take us through mid week.  Those cooler readings will really being to ignite the color change across central IN.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/much-cooler-air-on-deck/

Sep 22

Hot, Dry Pattern Continues For Now; MUCH Cooler Next Week…

The remainder of the work week and this weekend will remain dry and unseasonably warm.  Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the lower to middle 60s through the period. Strong ridging will keep us rain-free with plentiful sunshine.

gfs-ens_z500a_us_12A “backdoor” cold front will approach the region from the northeast late in the weekend, but won’t have enough “umph” to push the drier, cooler air our friends across the northeast and mid Atlantic will enjoy our way.

gfs_t2m_b_ma_14The evolution of the pattern from an unseasonably warm, dry regime to a much cooler, autumnal feel will, undoubtedly, feature showers and thunderstorms as we transition.  Modeling continues to waffle back and forth in regards to rainfall totals.  As of now, we’ll highlight Monday-Wednesday with increased rain chances.

gfs_tprecip_ky_28Thereafter, we turn MUCH cooler.  Data suggests Tuesday-Friday features temperatures much more like we’d expect for late September.  Lows in the 45-50 degree range, along with highs between 65-70 can be expected.

gfs-ens_z500a_us_24

gfs-ens_t2mamean_us_6

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/hot-dry-pattern-continues-for-now-much-cooler-next-week/

Sep 21

Hot Now, But Changes Coming…

screen-shot-2016-09-21-at-7-53-41-amHighlights:

  • Warmth continues
  • Dry weather through the weekend
  • Timing issues early next week

Sunglasses Required…The first half of the period is as easy as the second half is difficult so we won’t waste any time on it.  Look for lots of sunshine, unseasonably warm temperatures, and dry conditions through the weekend.  A “backdoor” cold front will be close to the region Sunday, but the impact it has on our immediate region will be minimal.  Eastern portions of the state will experience a cooler second half of the weekend with a breezy easterly flow.

The challenging period arrives to open up the work week and the GFS and European couldn’t be further apart.  There’s a 48 hour difference between when the GFS slides the strong cold front through (Monday) and European (Wednesday).  You can imagine, the sensible weather differs from a continuation of the unseasonably warm and dry conditions until Wednesday (European) or a true blast of fall air arriving Monday (GFS).

For the purpose of this forecast, we’ll lean more towards the GFS.  While it hasn’t been perfect, it’s easy to argue it’s been handling things in a much more consistent manner than the European as of late.  Furthermore, when the European completely “lost” this front earlier in the week, the GFS at least kept the idea alive and kicking.  Now the European model is having to play “catch up.”  With all of that said, we expect the cold front to deliver scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday followed by a significant drop in temperatures Monday night.  Unsettled weather would continue Tuesday with the much cooler air.  Stay tuned.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/hot-now-but-changes-coming/