Category Archives: Unseasonably Warm

NEW JMA Weeklies Highlight Overall Mild Pattern…

Winter has been on hold over the past few weeks, and there’s really nothing that looks to shake that up anytime soon (at least through the upcoming 10-14 days).

The new JMA Weeklies are in this morning and they continue to highlight the mild times:

Week 1

Week 2

Weeks 3-4

This is a rather dramatic reversal from what this particular model was saying only last week- when it was bringing winter back with authority by Week 2 on.  One could easily argue that even out to the Weeks 3-4 time frame that this certainly isn’t an ideal look for “stick and hold” cold to eventually push into the East.

There is a lot going on “behind the scenes” right now and this isn’t us saying winter’s over before it really even began, but it continues to look more and more likely that any sort of sustained cold and potentially snowy times will have to remain on hold until potentially late month.  The roaring PAC jet will likely continue to have it’s say until then…

(More later tonight on some of the items that argue for winter to get going as we progress into late January and beyond).

No Comments Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, JMA, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Quiet Period Of Weather Into Early Next Week…

Although we’re dealing with areas of drizzle, low clouds, and fog this morning, a relatively quiet period of weather is ahead as we put a wrap on the week and head through the weekend.  At one time what I thought would be a more significant storm system and associated eastern wintry threat won’t come to fruition.  While the eastern seaboard will deal with rain Friday into Saturday, we should remain free of any significant precipitation here on the home front.

Weak high pressure will keep us dry with increasing sunshine through the weekend.

Our next storm system will arrive as we open up next week and we’ll forecast increasing rain chances next Monday.  From this distance, moisture return isn’t terribly impressive and rainfall amounts should remain generally in the 0.25″ to 0.75″ range.

Colder air will follow behind this storm system with more authority and those wishing and hoping for legitimate wintry conditions may finally have their wish as we get closer to mid month.  Speaking of cold and wintry times, we’ll have more on our updated long range thoughts later this week.

No Comments Drizzle, Fog, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, Unseasonably Warm

Wet Close To 2018…

IND has already recorded over half an inch in the rain gauge this morning and there’s more where that came from between now and tonight. Steady rain will be replaced with scattered downpours late morning to around the lunchtime hour before widespread rain and embedded thunder returns early to mid afternoon.  Most can expect to tack on an additional half inch to inch of rain today and the latest HRRR sees this as well.

We’re also still monitoring the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms across southern portions of the state.  The Storm Prediction Center now includes far southern Indiana in a Slight Risk for severe weather today.  The primary concerns remain strong, damaging winds with a line of thunderstorms that may develop between 2p and 4p.  If your travels take you south towards Louisville today remain weather-aware.

Temperatures will run 25° to 30° colder New Year’s Day and a couple of scattered snow showers may fly- especially across the favored snowbelt areas to our north.

Have a happy and safe New Year’s Eve, friends!

No Comments Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, New Year's Eve/ Day, Severe Weather, snow, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm

Turning Colder Today; Another Rain Storm As We Close 2018…

Highlights:

  • Falling temperatures today
  • Chilly, but sunshine this weekend
  • Wet weather returns New Year’s Eve

Spring This Morning; Winter Tonight…Temperatures are starting off on a downright balmy note for late-December, but that “spring fling” will come to a crashing end later this afternoon and evening as temperatures fall.  It’ll be a dry day, but blustery.  Jackets will be required by the afternoon on.

Sunshine remains in place this weekend before another big rain maker arrives on the scene as we close out the year.  Locally heavy rain can be expected Monday.  Much colder air will plunge in behind this particular storm system and left over moisture will fall as scattered snow showers New Year’s Day.

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, New Year's Eve/ Day, Rain, snow, Spring, Unseasonably Warm, Windy