Category: Unseasonably Warm

Dec 26

Unseasonably Warm; Wet Day After Christmas…

screen-shot-2016-12-26-at-8-33-12-amHighlights:

  • Unseasonably warm today
  • Showers and perhaps a t-storm by lunchtime
  • Turning more seasonable later this week

Wet At Times Today…A cold front will push across the state later this afternoon.  Ahead of the front, a warm southwesterly air flow will lead to a spring-like feel on this day after Christmas.  Coverage of showers will increase by late morning and around lunchtime, including the possibility of an embedded thunderstorm.  Once the front sweeps through the region, our winds will flip to the northwest and result in a cooler feel as early as tonight.  Tuesday will feature much more seasonable conditions.

Reinforcing chilly air will blow into town Thursday afternoon and with enough upper level energy around, we’ll mention scattered snow showers in our forecast.  Colder weather will be with us to close the week and head into New Year’s weekend.

Speaking of New Year’s, we still eye a storm system around New Year’s Eve.  Confidence is low in the overall set-up in regards to storm track and timing and fine tuning will be required.  For now, we’ll simply go with a developing light wintry mix Saturday and “sure up” the details later this week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/unseasonably-warm-wet-day-after-christmas/

Dec 22

Changeable Weather Christmas To New Years…

It’s hard to believe we’re only a few days from Christmas!  Through the 22nd, Indianapolis is running a whopping 6 degrees below average.  Cold rules across the Lower 48, month-to-date.

ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anomThis is, of course, is in stark contrast to December 2015.

conus_mtd_t2max_anom_2015As we move forward, an active pattern awaits between now and the end of the year.  This comes after a few days to catch our breath, including moderating temperatures leading up to Christmas.

An initial wave of moisture will lift northeast and result in a rather gloomy day Friday with increasing rain chances Friday afternoon and evening.  Initially, precipitation won’t make it to the ground, but we should saturate the column enough that rain reaches the ground for most of central IN by evening.  Showers continue Friday night into the wee morning hours Christmas Eve.  (If traveling towards Chicago, a wintry mix and snow will be a good bet Friday PM).

hires_ref_ky_18Christmas Eve will feature overcast skies with areas of fog and drizzle, but the majority of the concentrated rain should fall south of the region.  Santa’s ride into central IN should be uneventful, weather-wise.

Christmas Day will start off with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s along with cloudy conditions and an increasingly gusty breeze that will shift out of the southeast to the south Christmas night.  Shower chances will be present by the evening before giving way to more widespread showers and embedded thunder overnight into Monday morning.  Temperatures will be stuck in the 40s most of the daytime Christmas before rising into the upper 50s predawn Monday.

gfs_ptype_slp_indy_17Temperatures will fall through the day Monday and we should run much closer to seasonable temperatures next week.  A couple of additional storm systems will have to be monitored for rain and snow prospects the middle of next week and again around New Year’s Eve/ Day.  Initially, we’ll be rather mild, but there may be more in the way of cold air readily available to make the storm system around New Years “more interesting” from a wintry perspective.

Longer term, we have to wonder if the negative EPO isn’t about to take control just past the New Year.  More and more data is coming around to the idea that the arctic hounds may (yet again) be on the attack early January… Time will tell and we’ll continue to keep a close eye on things.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/changeable-weather-christmas-to-new-years/

Dec 21

VIDEO: Rambling Around On A Wednesday Evening…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-rambling-around-on-a-wednesday-evening/

Dec 19

Frigid Open To The Week; Wet Christmas?

screen-shot-2016-12-19-at-8-58-45-amHighlights:

  • Bitterly cold to open the week
  • Mid week snow chances
  • Wet Christmas

Bundle Up…The frigid theme of December 2016 continues as overnight lows dipped to between 3 and 6 below zero for most central IN reporting sites.  By the way, IND is running (6) degrees below average, month-to-date.  Needless to say, December 2016 (top) is nothing like December 2015 (bottom).

conus_mtd_t2max_anom_2016

conus_mtd_t2max_anom_2015

Though still chilly, temperatures will moderate into mid week before our next system rolls in.  Clouds will increase Wednesday and give way to a chance of snow showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning as upper level energy rotates overhead.  Models likely will have to play “catch up” again with this mid week system and we’ll keep a close eye on data.

As we look at Christmas, itself, a warmer regime looks to build in, courtesy of a southwest flow.  This is in response to the southeast ridge flexing it’s muscle and driving a rather intense storm system northwest through the Plains states.  Blizzard conditions will likely result northwest of the low track while showers and thunderstorms develop in the warm sector, including the MS Valley into the Ohio Valley.  We’ll introduce a chance of thunderstorms into our Christmas Day forecast, as well.

Longer-term, a rather significant pattern shift will continue to close the month of December into early January and this will drive a shift from the bitterly cold conditions to much milder times as we open 2017.  Winter fans, have no fear, the seeds are already being planted for a return to frigid and active times just beyond the new year…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall:  Dusting – 1″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/frigid-open-to-the-week-wet-christmas/

Nov 26

Sunshine Returns This Weekend; Heavy Rain Event Looms…

screen-shot-2016-11-26-at-8-16-29-amHighlights:

  • Sunshine finally returns
  • Big time rain maker early next week
  • Trending colder to open December

Sunshine Slowly Returns…We’ve been socked in with clouds, chilly conditions, and overall gloomy weather for the past several days.  Thankfully, sunshine will eventually return this weekend.  Today has started with overcast skies, but slow improvements should provide an increasingly sunny sky as the day wears on.  Seasonable temperatures can be expected today.

The second half of the weekend will feature more in the way of sunshine, but our next storm system will be awaiting on deck by this point.  Southwest winds will turn increasingly breezy by the PM and clouds will quickly increase yet again.  Those clouds will yield rain as early as the wee morning hours Monday (well before sunrise).  Periods of heavy rain can be expected Monday and even a thunderstorm by afternoon/ evening.

Most of the heavy rain will fall Monday, but we’ll maintain mention of showers in our forecast Tuesday and Wednesday. A second wave of low pressure will develop along a pressing front the middle of next week and spread moisture northeast. The “leader” storm system is much easier to forecast than the “follower” in this scenario.  The details are muddy at this point concerning the extent of how far west precipitation can make it.  Know that we’re keeping a close eye on things.  For the sake of this particular forecast, we’ll include mention of rain showers mixing with snow showers as colder air moves in Thursday.  Stay tuned.

The end of the week will feature a colder trend as we usher in December.

One final item on the agenda this morning- with this being Iron Bowl Saturday, we can’t leave you without wishing you an energetic WAR EAGLE!

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Trace
  • Rainfall: 1.25-1.75 (locally heavier totals)

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/sunshine-returns-this-weekend-heavy-rain-event-looms/