A “relaxation” of the well below normal cold is on the way.

While this will support a 5-10 day period of temperatures of 5° to 10° above average (milder overnight lows, and a few days with highs at or above 50° are a good bet during the period, as well), the stage is already being set in motion for a return of colder conditions around the Christmas holiday.  While admittedly, transitional periods can be “finicky,” there’s support from other pattern drivers behind a wintry return between the 12.22 and 12.24 time period.  Furthermore, data suggests that there will be plenty of storminess to boot.

For those that love to review the operational model data as it rolls in (in some cases, up to 4 times per day), expect wild swings as the data begins to “hone in.”  Despite some of that model fluctuation, we expect the pattern to look something like this around Christmas.

We expect the mean ridge position to set up shop over the Pacific northwest.  This will result in a warmer than average regime across the west.  At the same time, the trough will be pushing back into the east. As the cold air settles back in, we expect a rather active time of things during the period.  This certainly doesn’t mean we’re talking snow storms, but it does appear likely that at least one or two systems of interest loom.  We’ll have to deal with the challenges that will come from one or both as time draws closer.

While a “transitional” pattern appears likely around Christmas, there are growing concerns of a return of sustained cold as we get into the new year.