Category Archives: Unseasonably Cool Weather

Reviewing The Latest JMA Weeklies…

The new JMA Weeklies paint a wet and active picture for Week 1, but begin to suggest we get into a milder, drier pattern as we push into the middle and latter portions of May…

Week 1:

The “mean” upper air pattern places coastal ridges with a cool trough settling into the central.  The end result will be a wet and active regime, locally, this weekend into next week.  Though we’ll see a “spike” in temperatures Sunday, the overall theme is a chilly one as we open the month of May.  In fact, temperatures will trend significantly cooler than average as we push into next week.

Week 2:

While it still looks chilly (compared to average), the JMA Weeklies suggest a “calmer” weather pattern moving in.  Wet anomalies are noted through the Rockies and Central, but a drier trend across the east, including the Ohio Valley.

Weeks 3-4:

Wet times remain across the Central and spread into more of the southern tier, as well.  Slightly cooler than normal temperatures are also forecast across the Southeast.  Budding warmth seems to develop over the West.

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Busy Weather Pattern…

Highlights:

  • AM showers then cooler and windy
  • Stormy weekend ahead
  • Cooler next week

Busy Times In The Weather Office…A cold front will sweep through the state this morning with lingering showers and an abrupt wind shift.  Gusty westerly winds and cooler air (we’ve already seen our high for the day) will be with us this afternoon, along with a variably cloudy sky.

Unfortunately, we don’t have many changes to the ongoing idea of hefty weekend rains.  A warm front will begin to slowly lift north Friday into Saturday and this will be the focal point for heavy rain and thunderstorms.  Overall coverage and intensity of rain and thunderstorms will increase as we rumble through the second half of Friday.  A couple of storms could be strong to severe- especially across southern Indiana Friday afternoon and night.

The aforementioned warm front will lift north and be located across the southern Great Lakes region Sunday.  This will put our neck of the woods squarely into the warm and humid air mass Sunday.  Though storm coverage will likely be more scattered in nature when compared to Saturday, heavy thunderstorms will develop, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.  With a deep-rooted tropical connection along with saturated soils in place from early weekend rains, flood and flash flood potential will be high as we go into early portions of next week.

As we open up the work week, we’ll shift gears from a moisture-rich southerly flow to one that’s out of the northwest and much cooler.  Showers will continue through Monday.  Our next storm system will then set it’s eyes on the region by the middle of next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 2.50″ – 3.50″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Flooding, Forecast, Heavy Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Windy

Nice Open To The Week Before A Stormy Finish…

Highlights:

  • Sun-filled open to the week
  • Midweek storms
  • Warm, humid, and stormy weekend

Dry Open To The Week Transitions To A Stormy Finish…High pressure and a refreshing northeast flow will continue to dominate our weather as we open up the work week.  Dry skies will prevail and the crisp mornings will warm quickly into the 70s both today and Tuesday.

A cold front will approach late Wednesday and help showers and thunderstorms increase Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

We’ll be in between storm systems Friday and a pleasant close to the work week will result.  That said, a warm front will lift north and move through the region Saturday and this will help shower and thunderstorm coverage increase significantly Saturday morning.  A much warmer and more humid feel will overspread the area once the front blows through and an unstable airmass will continue to promote shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday.  Locally heavy rains are a good bet this weekend.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 2.50″ – 3.00″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Heavy Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Quiet Open To The Work Week Turns Stormy By Midweek…

After a blustery and chilly Saturday (and temperatures in the upper 30s to start our Sunday), a gorgeous close to the weekend is ahead.  Wall-to-wall sunshine is expected with moderating temperatures this afternoon.  Our average high on the 23rd of April is 66° and we should be very close to that later this afternoon.  Enjoy!

High pressure will remain entrenched over our area as we progress through the early portions of the work week.  This will provide pleasant weather and plentiful sunshine.  With a dry airmass in place, expect significant temperature swings.  Overnight lows in the 40s will quickly rise into the 70s Monday and Tuesday.

High pressure will dominate our early-week weather.

A southerly flow will help pull a more humid air mass northward Wednesday and as a cold front slices into the unseasonably warm and muggy airmass, we expect showers and thunderstorms to increase Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.  We still have some time to watch things evolve, but from this distance, we feel strong to severe thunderstorm potential is present during this period.  Locally heavy rains are also possible as PWATs zoom to 1.5″ +.

Precipitable water values will increase to 1.5″+ Wednesday and support the threat of locally heavy rain.

We’ll get into some briefly drier air to wrap up the work week, but a warm front will blow through the region Saturday and will likely be accompanied by thunderstorms as it lifts north.  Once the warm front passes, unseasonably warm and humid air will make a return and set the stage for a true summer-like feel next weekend.  We expect highs to go into the lower to middle 80s with a muggy feel, as well.

Finally, after Saturday morning thunder, we think the majority of next weekend is dry before a cold front brings a return to widespread showers and thunderstorms late Sunday.

No Comments Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Rain, Spring, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weekly Outlook