You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Category: Unseasonably Cool Weather
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/first-snow-of-the-season-and-early-december-talk/
Nov 18
Wet Today; Colder Air Coming…
Highlights:
- Rain today
- Breezy and turning cooler
- Secondary push of early season arctic air
Our big autumn storm system is swirling through the central Plains this morning. It’ll begin to pick up forward momentum and head northeast over the next 24 hours.
We’re dealing with an impressive fetch of moisture (w/ a Gulf of Mexico connection) this morning and that’ll help feed embedded heavy downpours this morning into the early afternoon. Here’s a time stamp of forecast radar images, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.
As mentioned above, with a GOM connection, embedded heavy rain will dampen your Wednesday activities. On average, we’ll add an additional half inch to inch of rain today (that’s on top of what we saw Monday and Tuesday).
Once to tomorrow all eyes will be on our next storm system that will eventually help pull down the season’s first blast of arctic air. Ahead of the cold surge, expect light rain to end as light snow across central IN Saturday. This won’t be a big deal from an accumulation perspective, but it’s always exciting seeing the first snow flakes of the season. Further north, across our northern tier of counties, a couple inches of snow will be possible.
We’re also keeping a close eye on Thanksgiving’s weather. While still a bit early to be specific, initial thoughts suggest we’re dealing with a storm on, or just on either side of Thanksgiving, that will provide rain to begin, but we caution that another surge of early season arctic air looks to pour in behind that storm system and potentially set the stage for a more impactful winter event to open December. More on that in the days ahead…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wet-today-colder-air-coming/
Nov 17
Couple Storms To Watch And Much Colder Air…
Highlights:
- Periods of rain
- Turning cooler
- Next storm offers up wintry precipitation for parts of the state
- Early arctic blast
Periods of rain will continue into the mid to late afternoon across central IN as “wave 2” of our current storm system moves through. We’ve added a couple simulated radar images below, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.
This is all in association with a significant autumn storm system that’s been responsible for delivering hefty snows across the Rockies, blizzard conditions across the High Plains, and severe weather across the central and southern Plains. This storm will lift northeast over the next 24-36 hours.
A third, and final, wave of moisture will push through the state Wednesday, in a weakened state from what our friends to the west will experience (where another round of severe is expected today and tonight). This is what the radar may look like mid-morning-ish Wednesday.
When all is totaled up from rain that began Monday afternoon and ends Wednesday afternoon, many locales will pick up 1.5″-2″ of needed rainfall. While significant, those numbers are lower than what originally model data implied, but we’ll take what we can get to push closer to average for November rainfall.
All eyes will then shift to our second storm system that will arrive over the weekend. There are still more questions than answers in regards to track of this next “wave” of low pressure, but with much colder air in place and pouring in behind the system, snow will fly across northern IN. As of now we forecast the majority of this event to fall in a liquid form across central IN, but even here precipitation may end as light snow showers the way things stand now. Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune the track. Regardless, much colder air will be with us to end the period.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/couple-storms-to-watch-and-much-colder-air/
Nov 15
Nice Today Before Our Next Storm Arrives…
Highlights:
- Beautiful Sunday
- Clouds and rain return
- Colder late week
- Eyeing a potentially wintry end to November
Our next storm system is coming ashore along the West Coast this morning. That storm will impact our weather this week, but today we’ll focus on the sunshine and beautiful conditions. Temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 60s. With what lies ahead, we’d highly suggest taking advantage of the nice weather today and finish up any of that outdoor work you may have.
Clouds will increase Monday and the initial surge of moisture will provide showers and light rain by afternoon and evening. A strong southerly flow continues Tuesday into Wednesday with periods of rain. It won’t rain the entire time, but more times than not. A push of heavy rain still appears likely Tuesday night into Wednesday.
The image below is a look at forecast PWATs, thanks to Weatherbell.com, for Tuesday night. When these values reach 1.5″-2″ that’s a good indication for very heavy rains. We’ll continue to forecast widespread 2″+ type rainfall with this storm system.
Once this next storm moves out, we’ll get back to drier and colder times to end the work week. Attention will then shift to a colder, potentially wintry, end to the month, including the Thanksgiving holiday. It’s too early for specifics on storminess, but model data does hint at a storm of “interest” around Thanksgiving. With colder air making a return, it’s certainly possible this next storm has a wintry component to it…
The latest GFS ensemble temperature anomaly chart shows the colder than average pattern setting in to wrap up November.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/nice-today-before-our-next-storm-arrives/
Nov 11
Big Time Wind Event; Active Pattern…
Highlights:
- Nighttime storms
- Prolonged wind event
- Eyeing our next storm
The morning has dawned with mid and high level clouds painting the back drop as the sun rises. We’ve shared several photos on our Twitter page (@IndyWx) of the beautiful sun rise. Thank you and keep ’em coming!
Low pressure is moving off the Rockies this morning (where another hefty snow dump took place overnight) and into the Plains. The low will then track into the Great Lakes Thursday. As the low moves northeast, it’ll swing a cold front through our neck of the woods Thursday morning. We still bracket tonight into the wee morning hours Thursday for thunderstorm potential. See the simulated radar valid at 10p this evening, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) is lacking with this storm and moisture return isn’t impressive. This is good news as it will reduce the amount of severe weather we’ll see. However, it should be noted that it won’t take much to bring down a severe wind report or two and that is our primary concern tonight with any storm.
CAPE- courtesy of Weatherbell.com
Surface Dew Points- courtesy of Weatherbell.com
Precipitable Water- courtesy of Weatherbell.com
Because of the lack of moisture return and the overall speed of the system, rainfall tonight won’t be impressive for most (0.25″-0.50″ on average) with the exception of localized stronger storms.
What will be impressive is the wind, even without storms. A Wind Advisory has been issued for late tonight and Thursday, via the National Weather Service out of Indianapolis, and rightfully so. We wouldn’t be surprised if a portion of this is upgraded to a High Wind Warning later today or tonight as gusts of 50 MPH+ will be a concern through the day Thursday as our low occludes over the Lakes.
A period of drier air will return to wrap up the week and head into early next week, but we eye another big storm system for the middle of next week. Forecast models differ on precise details, as you’d expect at this juncture.
The GFS (above) isn’t shying away from another significant impact event. The European isn’t as bullish early on. All mid range models do produce moderate to heavy rains over the region. Stay tuned as we continue to monitor.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/big-time-wind-event-active-pattern/