Highlights:
- Nice weekend
- Rain returns Sunday night-Monday
- Strong storm potential Wednesday PM
- Cold close to the week
Sunshine Should Make An Appearance Today…The weekend is opening chilly, including wind chills around freezing this morning. Hang in there- sunshine should at least make an appearance later on this afternoon and Sunday certainly looks to be a brighter day, overall, before clouds increase late and give way to showers overnight into Monday morning.
We’re back to sunshine Tuesday before a stronger storm begins to impact the state Wednesday. A rather robust area of low pressure will track into the Great Lakes region Wednesday night and help pull a briefly warmer, increasingly moist air mass into the area. Potential is present for strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday evening into the nighttime. We’ll then transition to a much cooler regime to close the week and with low pressure slowly pivoting through the Ohio Valley, showers will continue Thursday into Friday. In fact, the air may grow cold enough to allow for a few wet snowflakes to mix with the rain by Friday morning.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.75″ – 2.25″
Highlights:
2.) We bracket the hours of 2p-8p (couple hours earlier from yesterday’s thinking) as the period of potential most widespread strong to severe thunderstorms across central Indiana, and the HRRR forecast radar shows what the radar may look like this evening. Have a means of getting the latest warnings.
3.) Scattered showers will continue into Friday morning before drier air arrives during the evening hours.
4.) This drier trend Friday PM is one that will continue into the weekend. High pressure will supply mostly dry weather through the entire weekend (small shower chances return Sunday evening), including sunshine.
5.) Another active period of weather awaits next week, including multiple rain chances early and late week. The latter storm looks to be the bigger event with heavy rain and thunderstorm potential Wednesday into Thursday. 7-day rain numbers check in between 1.5″-2″ with locally heavier amounts.
6.) The story becomes a chilly one next weekend, and models suggest central Indiana may be dealing with frost and freeze conditions by next Saturday or Sunday morning.
Precipitation is running above normal, locally, to the tune of nearly 1″ month-to-date. Heaviest rains have fallen across southeastern Indiana over the past (30) days.
A look at precipitation anomalies across the mid west, month-to-date:
As we progress through the upcoming (10) days, a transient weather pattern will persist. This will keep forecasters busy, but it should also be stressed it’s not all a “doom and gloom” type pattern, either. There will be plenty of dry time over the upcoming period, including drier conditions building in tomorrow (Tuesday) into a good chunk of Wednesday.
However, timing is our friend this go around as upper ridging develops over the upcoming weekend. Not only will we dry out, but we’ll also enjoy increasing sunshine as the weekend progresses.
That said, looking further down the pipe line, another (potentially more significant) storm system looms during the 8-10 day period. This would fall in the April 3rd-4th time frame. From this distance, models are bullish on hefty rainfall totals with this storm system and we’ll keep a close eye on things as time draws closer.
Speaking of April, our overall thoughts for the fourth month of the year (where does time go?) would imply a warmer than average month and active (wetter than average). Relative to average, we feel we still may have some chill to traverse early month, but there’s also some indication we could bust into an early summer-like feel mid and late month. With the mean trough position west and ridging east, we’ll have to also be mindful for the potential of an active severe weather month- especially mid and late month. Overall, the CanSIPS idea below is one we would agree with from a mean 500mb perspective.
Highlights: