Category: Tropics

Aug 27

Rain Returns; Late Week “Backdoor” Cold Front…

Highlights:

  • Rain and storm chances increase
  • Late week cold front
  • Gearing up for a bigger blast of fall air

Dry Close To The Weekend…First and foremost, our thoughts and prayers are with Texas as one of the worst flood events in our country’s history is unfolding this morning.  With days of heavy rain ahead, an additonal 20″-30″ will fall on eastern Texas.  Just horrific.

Here on the home front, we’ll wrap up the weekend on a dry note, but upper level energy will drift overhead late tonight and help generate scattered showers and thunderstorms as early as the predawn hours Monday.  We’ll maintain a bit of an unsettled regime into Tuesday before dry conditions return Wednesday.

A backdoor cold front will push through central Indiana Thursday and a broken line of showers and thunderstorms may accompany this frontal passage.  A northeasterly flow will usher in an unseasonably cool, early fall-like, close to the work week.

Looking ahead, an even stronger cold front has it’s eyes set on the region late next weekend or early the following week.  Strong thunderstorm potential is present with this storm system followed by the coolest air since last spring…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall:  0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/rain-returns-late-week-backdoor-cold-front/

Aug 25

Pleasant Close To The Week; Harvey Questions…

Highlights:

  • Dry and unseasonably cool close to the week
  • Shower chances return
  • Watching Harvey

Can’t Ask For Anything Better…Our weather to wrap up the work week will be dominated by cool Canadian high pressure.  This will supply plentiful sunshine and unseasonably cool conditions.

A cold front will approach early next week before “washing out” over the Ohio Valley.  Shower chances will increase in association with this frontal boundary late Sunday night into early next week.  Dry conditions will return by the middle of next week along with slightly cooler than average temperatures.

Tropics: Harvey continues to dominate the headlines and rightfully so.  Devastating impacts will be dealt to Texas from a rain, surge, and wind perspective.  He will be upgraded to a major hurricane today.  It’s still far too early to know how far north Henry will eventually make it late next week before getting absorbed by an approaching trough.  Portions of the Ohio Valley are still on the table for potential rain impacts from Harvey late next week.  Stay tuned.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/pleasant-close-to-the-week-harvey-questions/

Aug 24

Quick Thursday Morning Comment…

Good morning, friends!  Temperatures this morning are in the lower 50s for many across central Indiana as our “hint” of fall continues to wrap up the month of August.  I…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/quick-thursday-morning-comment/

Aug 22

Tuesday Storms Then Much Cooler…

Highlights:

  • Scattered storms with locally heavy rain
  • Early fall-like feel arrives
  • Dry weather returns

Cold Front Arrives…A cold front is pressing into the state today and generating unsettled weather across the region.  Widespread heavy rains fell overnight across northern parts of the state (areas just west of Lafayette have picked up 3″-4″ of rain during the past 24 hours).  Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected through early evening before a much drier and cooler air mass arrives tonight behind the frontal passage.

That drier and cooler regime will set the tone for the rest of the week and weekend.  High pressure will settle in and provide plentiful sunshine.  Additionally, cool, Canadian air will pour south as we progress through the second half of the week.  This will result in well below normal temperatures and conditions that will feel more like mid to late September rather than late August.

Tropics:  Harvey is likely to stage a comeback over the next few days once he emerges into the southwest Gulf of Mexico.  Folks with interests along the Texas coastline should certainly monitor Harvey for tropical implications as the weekend approaches.  An interior heavy rain/ flood threat will result, as well.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tuesday-storms-then-much-cooler/

Aug 13

The Week Opens Quiet Before More Unsettled Times Return…

High pressure will remain in control of our weather pattern through the early portions of the new week.  This will supply continued dry conditions, along with plentiful sunshine.  Humidity values will remain comfortable as we open the work week before turning increasingly muggy as midweek nears.

High pressure will keep us dry through early week.

As high pressure moves off to the east, a southwesterly air flow will help moisture return to the state by mid and late week.  As a cold front enters the picture, overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase and become scattered to numerous.  We’re not expecting any sort of all-day rains, but chances of getting wet from time to time will go up Wednesday through Friday.

Thunderstorm coverage increases mid and late week.

Rainfall totals should fall in the 0.50″ to 1.00″ range for most, but there will be a few folks who pick up locally heavier amounts the second half of the week.

As of now, we think the cold front will pass Friday evening and set-up another pleasant weekend with seasonable temperatures.  The stretch of gorgeous August weekends’ appears to roll along.

What else we’re working on:  With us about to flip the page to the second half of August, thoughts continue to shift to the upcoming meteorological fall and winter seasons ahead.  Early data paints an “intriguing” look, complete with high latitude blocking and neutral ENSO look.  Winter enthusiasts should like the look overall as this will have an impact on the prospects of cold getting going earlier than recent years past.  Much more on fall and winter in the weeks ahead…  The other big item of interest has to do with the tropics.  A new disturbance will traverse the MDR (Main Development Region) this week and given the overall upper level pattern over the CONUS, we’ll have to keep an eye on the East Coast Weeks 2-3.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/the-week-opens-quiet-before-more-unsettled-times-return/