Category Archives: T-storms

Busy Week Of Weather…

November is off to a chilly start and longer range data suggests the chill grows more significant as we venture through the second half of the month.  Officially, IND is running more than 1° below normal through the 12th.

Despite an active weather week ahead, the open to the new work week will be rather uneventful.  Weak high pressure will keep us dry today and Tuesday.  Fog and low clouds should give way to an increasingly bright sky by this afternoon (still more clouds than sun today) and partly cloudy skies Tuesday.

Our next weather feature approaches Wednesday in the form of a cold front.  This will return showers to the area midweek.  Rainfall amounts Wednesday should generally fall in the 0.25″ to 0.50″ range.

A stronger storm will impact the region as we close out the work week.  Strengthening low pressure will track into the Great Lakes and drag a trailing cold front through our region Friday evening.  A briefly milder southwesterly air flow will push temperatures close to 60° Friday afternoon/ evening before the sharply colder push of air blows into town for the weekend.  The transition may include strong to severe thunderstorms Friday PM, and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlined a large portion of the region under a severe risk Friday.  It’ll be important to stay tuned to future updates.  Even outside of potentially damaging thunderstorm gusts, non-t-storm winds will gust over 40 MPH Friday.

Once the cold front sweeps through the region, a sharply colder air mass will plunge into the Ohio Valley for the weekend.  Overnight data has trended even colder and would suggest falling Saturday temperatures (most of the day will be spent in the 30s) and highs only in the lower to middle 30s Sunday.

Speaking of cold, Thanksgiving week is looking unseasonably cold, and there’s also the potential of early-season snow (far too early for specifics).

Autumn, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, Severe Weather, snow, T-storms, Thanksgiving, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Windy

Tracking A Couple Of Cold Fronts This Week…

Highlights:

  • Calm open to the work week
  • Two cold fronts impact the region
  • Much colder air blows in this weekend

Calm Open; Busy Close…The work week will open with weak high pressure in control of our weather.  This will result in sunshine returning along with unseasonably chilly conditions (average highs are in the mid 50s this time of year).

The first of two cold fronts will push through the state Wednesday.  Clouds will increase Tuesday evening and showers will blow into town Wednesday morning.  Breezy and chilly conditions will go along with the damp weather.

A second (stronger) cold front will impact the area to close the work week.  Strengthening low pressure will move through the Great Lakes Friday evening and help pull a briefly warmer air mass into the state.  Showers and thunderstorms will be widespread ahead of the approaching cold front and a few of these could be strong to severe.  We’ll keep a close eye on things over the next couple of days and update accordingly.  Strong and gusty southwesterly winds will reach 40 MPH+ before shifting around to the northwest once the trailing cold front sweeps through the region.  This will drive a sharply colder air mass southeast and the potential is there for lingering moisture to end as a touch of wet snow late Friday night.  The weekend will feature dry, windy, and unseasonably cold conditions.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall:  Trace
  • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″
7-Day Outlook, Autumn, Forecast, Rain, snow, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Windy

Severe Weather Sunday; Much Colder Next Week…

Highlights:

  • Clouds more bark than bite today
  • Stormy setup Sunday
  • Trending colder next week

All Eyes On Sunday…The cold front that passed through the region Thursday night and setup the gorgeous close to the work week is lifting back north this morning as a warm front.  This will result in overcast conditions today, areas of sprinkles or drizzle later in the day, and rising nighttime temperatures.  Scattered thunderstorms will develop across central Indiana late tonight with a warmer and increasingly moist environment.

Sunday will certainly be a day to remain weather-aware.  The overall setup hasn’t changed from what was discussed yesterday with a warm and moist southwesterly air flow in place ahead of an approaching cold front and associated area of low pressure.  Additional ingredients in play suggest we need to monitor the threat of large hail, damaging straight line winds, and potentially tornadoes.  Individual storms (potential super cells) are expected to fire across central and northern portions of the state Sunday afternoon into early evening.  These will be capable of quickly pulsing to severe levels and include potential of large hail, as well as tornadoes (particularly in the vicinity of the warm front which is expected to be draped across north-central parts of the state).  Individual cells are anticipated to “morph” into a squall line Sunday evening, including potential of a quick spin-up tornado, as well as damaging straight line winds.  With a moisture-rich air mass in place (precipitable water values are expected to approach 2″ Sunday evening), locally heavy rainfall is also expected.

All of our “excitement” will come to an end overnight Sunday and we’ll trend much colder (and calmer) during the new work week ahead.  Our next storm system will pass by to our south Tuesday, but may be close enough to spark a light shower across central portions of the state.  Drier and colder conditions build in later in the week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.50″
7-Day Outlook, Autumn, Forecast, Hail, Harvest'17, Heavy Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms, Tornadoes, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm