Category: SST Discussion

Jul 21

Another Round Of Storms Inbound Tonight (Some Strong); Tropics Heat Up; Active Pattern To Close July-Open August…

I. A round of strong (and locally severe) storms blew through north-central parts of the state earlier this afternoon and as we write this, yet another batch of storms is erupting across IL. These storms should hold together into central IN late evening (targeting a 8p-11p arrival west to east) and a few could become severe. Ingredients in place favor strong, damaging wind gusts with the stronger cells, but there’s also the opportunity for a quick spin-up tornado. Torrential downpours can be expected with any and all storms. It’ll be wise to keep tabs on the local radar this evening.

II. As can be expected the deeper into summer we go, the tropics become more active. That’s certainly been the case over the past couple days and all indications continue to point towards a particularly “robust” season as late summer gives way to fall. Interests to the Gulf Coast beaches and Carolina coast should pay close attention to the tropical outlooks in the coming weeks and months. Unfortunately, conditions seem ripe for the opportunity of a few major hurricanes this season, especially when you combine the SST profile with the tendency for the MJO to spend time in Phases 2-3.

In the shorter term, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is keeping close tabs on the Gulf as well as newly formed TD 7.

III. Overall upper pattern strongly suggests we can expect a very active close to July and open to August. Between next week and the first few days of August, we’re tracking 3 cold fronts that will help to beat back the heat and serve up above normal rainfall through the period (not to mention threat of additional strong to severe storms).

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/another-round-of-storms-inbound-tonight-some-strong-tropics-heat-up-active-pattern-to-close-july-open-august/

Jan 21

Catching Up On A Tuesday Evening And Looking Ahead…

January is flying by! With only 10 days left in the month, Indianapolis is running a whopping 8.2° above normal along with more than 3″ above normal in the precipitation department (unfortunately for snow lovers, this excess moisture has fallen primarily as rain, as IND is running a deficit of 5.2″ in the snowfall department).

January month-to-date temperature anomalies, courtesy of the Midwestern Regional Climate Center
January month-to-date precipitation anomalies, courtesy of the Midwestern Regional Climate Center

On a broader scale, here’s a look at the current month-to-date temperature anomalies for the Lower 48 as a whole:

January Lower 48 month-to-date ‘mean’ temperature anomalies, courtesy of weathermodels.com

As a refresher, our January forecast looked like this:

The baseline of this thinking had to do with the idea we had that the MJO would roll out of the warm phases (5 and 6) and strongly into the colder phases after mid-month. Secondly, the other driver was the thought that the current SST configuration in the north Pacific would “force” a negative EPO as the winter season matured.

While the MJO did, indeed, rumble out of the warmer phases just after mid-month, the EPO has not cooperated. Furthermore, instead of the MJO tracking into Phases 8, 1, and 2, it appears it wants to go into the “null” phase to figure out its ultimate destination for the 2nd half of winter (this will be key with Feb. and March). While this doesn’t necessarily support warmth, it doesn’t offer enough ammo to fight the warm signal from the strongly positive EPO.

Now that we’re beginning to turn the page to the 2nd half of winter, there are other items to begin paying closer attention to. In addition to the EPO and MJO, some of these features include the AO, NAO, and PNA. With that said, to drive more of a consistent colder than normal theme, we need to get the EPO at least into the neutral range as some of the other ingredients noted above transition into more favorable colder phases. With a strongly positive EPO, it’ll be tough to sustain well below average temperatures.

With all of that said, all hope is not lost for winter lovers. Climatology speaking, we’re in the coldest time of the year. Even in “marginally” cold patterns, or even “warm” patterns this time of year, wintry issues can create headaches. Secondly, it’s worth paying close attention to the MJO over the next couple of weeks as some of the data wants to take things out of the null phase and transition towards the traditionally colder phases of 8, 1, 2, and 3.

As it is, the next couple of weeks should present a fairly active storm track across the region. In the face of what should truly be a “torch” pattern, the saving grace (at least for fans of winter weather) has to do with the strong Hudson Bay ridge and tendency this kind of pattern has to force stormy times underneath. While far from a “slam dunk,” these kind of patterns can produce- even in the face of a strong positive EPO.

If you had to choose, would you rather have a bitterly cold and dry regime or seasonably mild with at least being on the playing field for wintry mischief over the next couple of weeks?

More in the AM, friends. Make it a relaxing evening! 🙂

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/catching-up-on-a-tuesday-evening-and-looking-ahead/

Dec 30

Important To Know What Lever To Pull And When…

As another year comes to a close and the winter pattern begins to “mature,” we thought we’d do a little rambling…

This evening’s rambles have to do with the variety of “drivers” that at times like to take control of our weather pattern. You hear us use terms like the MJO, EPO, AO, PNA, and NAO (amongst others) often, but at times, these various pattern drivers can have more impact than others, and at varied times of the year.

Traditionally, if the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is highly amplified, that’s going to serve as the basis of our medium or longer range forecasts. However, if the MJO is in the null phase, other teleconnections can take control of the wheel. Sea-surface temperature configuration can give hints to the way these elements may behave during the season(s) ahead, but we caution each respective season takes on a flavor unique to it’s own. That’s what makes this business so fun, challenging, and, at times, frustrating. 🙂

It’s also important to understand when the ingredients noted above have the greatest impact on our immediate weather. We love to lean more heavily towards the NAO and AO mid-to-late winter into the spring, for instance. Case in point, a negative EPO and positive PNA can quickly trump a positive AO/ NAO this time of year, and vice-versa.

In the event you didn’t have a chance to see it Sunday, we released our January Outlook. We have a very stormy month outlined that includes cold “overwhelming” things as the month progresses. A lot of this has to do with the fact we think we see a “shake-up” with the MJO out of the warm phases and into the traditional cold phases of 8,1, and 2 taking shape during the 2nd half of the month. Additionally, we continue to believe the favorable north Pacific sea surface temperature configuration (for a cold Great Lakes and OHV) will begin to force the negative EPO/ positive PNA.

The NEW European Weeklies show the transitional time of things through the 1st half of the month, but note the building more persistent NW NA ridge during the 2nd half of the month and corresponding reflection of an eastern trough. Should the MJO be heading into Phase 8 around this time frame (and we think it will), this trough will likely correct stronger in future updates for late month.

The model sees the stormy time of things through the month and into February. (Important to note that even “warm” months this time of year can also feature above normal snow. Just see this December- nearly an inch above normal for the month). As things stand now, we see multiple opportunities for snow as January gets underway, including Saturday PM, and again Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Make it a great evening! We’ll be back early in the morning with a fresh video update.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/important-to-know-what-lever-to-pull-and-when/

Nov 05

January-Like Cold Inbound Next Week; What Awaits Thereafter?

“Normals” for January includes highs in the middle 30s and lows in the upper 10s to lower 20s across central Indiana. Early to middle parts of next week are forecast to feature highs in the upper 20s to around 30 and lows in the middle 10s. Yes, these temperatures will challenge records as a truly impressive arctic invasion claims next week’s weather headlines.

Record cold is ahead next week.

A lot of this has to do with the sea surface temperature (SST) configuration across the northern Pacific. We’ve been focusing in on the warmer anomalies across the north and northeastern Pacific and tendency for this to drive a persistent ridge across NW NA since late summer. That persistent NW NA ridge leads to a persistent trough downstream and the associated cold pattern we’re now looking at. As our Winter Outlook suggests, we think this overall pattern repeats itself throughout the majority of the months ahead.

As we look more “immediate term,” what do teleconnections and the MJO tell us about the overall pattern moving past the middle of November? Well, to start, the highly amplified MJO is forecast to roll into Phase 7 around mid-month. This suggests the colder than normal pattern persists.

The EPO is forecast to remain negative while the PNA remains positive into and through the mid month period. Both argue for continued cold.

To no surprise, the latest long range data continues to drill unseasonably cold air south into our portion of the country and a large majority of the eastern portion of the Lower 48 in the Weeks 2-3 time period. Snow opportunities will undoubtedly follow with this kind of pattern.

Buckle up…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/january-like-cold-inbound-next-week-what-awaits-thereafter/

Oct 15

Evening Video: A Tale Of Extended Summer That Gives Way To Sudden Winter…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/evening-video-a-tale-of-extended-summer-that-gives-way-to-sudden-winter/