Category: SST Discussion

Digging Deeper As Winter Nears…

Thanksgiving is only a week away (where on earth does time go?!) and more and more folks are asking what we think winter will hold for central Indiana.  In case you missed it earlier this fall, here’s our official Winter Outlook.

We’re continuing to dig in and monitor new data that’s streaming into the office, as well as ocean profiles.  With that said, we wanted to share some of our findings with you this morning with respect to how various ocean regions can impact our weather this winter.

We’re noticing significant changes, particularly in the north Pacific, with the famous “warm blob” emerging (image 1). This is a big factor that aided in persistent cold; wintry weather during the ’13-’14 winter (images 2-3). Notice the difference from last year, too (image 4). This isn’t a full blown cold PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) yet, but trending in that direction and “ups the ante” for cold, wintry conditions, locally this year.

What makes seasonal forecasting so challenging (and fun :-)) are the multiple features that can impact a forecast.  We’ve talked about the importance of ENSO (various types of Nino and Nina events) in past updates, as well as low solar and QBO.  All of these moving parts and pieces are coming together in a manner that seems to be favoring more of a cold, wintry regime, locally, this year.  Is that us saying another blockbuster 2013-2014 winter awaits?  Absolutely not (there are other differences noted above with the SST configuration).  However, it is suggesting that this winter will be absolutely nothing like the past couple…

Might want to think about getting the snow blower tuned up!

More later today on the short-term.  Make it a great Thursday!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/11/16/digging-deeper-as-winter-nears/

Winter Ideas…

We continue to finalize our winter forecast, which will be posted, as always, here later this month.

As little as only a few months ago, data suggested a major La Nina for the upcoming winter season.  That data has since backed off significantly.  In fact, some runs suggest we’re back into a weak-ish El Nino state by spring.  At the very least, we are confident on avoiding a strong La Nina this winter and lean more in the direction of a weak Nina, at best, to neutral signal.  The CFSv2 is interesting, as always, with the spread in region 3.4.

nino34monadj

sstanimIn addition to the central PAC anomalies, we also are keying in on some other items of interest in the overall SST configuration:

I. Warmth in the GOA (Gulf of Alaska)

Argues for central cold this winter, spreading east with time.

II. Warmth off the eastern seaboard

Will likely serve to limit the ability for the cold to spread east early on in the season

92916sstThe SST CA model is quickly becoming one of our more trusted seasonal forecast models.  We note how it becomes increasingly bullish on a central and eastern trough as winter wears on (by the way, this is likely to go deep into spring this year, too).

screen-shot-2016-10-02-at-10-52-54-am

screen-shot-2016-10-02-at-10-53-04-amCold overwhelms the pattern and when you combine it with the active storm track (noted by the green hues, suggesting above normal precipitation through our neck of the woods), confidence is continuing to grow for an above normal snow season.

screen-shot-2016-10-02-at-10-58-16-am

screen-shot-2016-10-02-at-10-58-05-amThe SST configuration on the JAMSTEC would suggest a cold, stormy set-up, locally.  That said, while it sees the above average precipitation, it’s awfully warm at the surface.

ssta-glob-djf2017-1sep2016

tprep-glob-djf2017-1sep2016

temp2-glob-djf2017-1sep2016The NMME (to no surprise…) would suggest a very warm, wet winter.

screen-shot-2016-10-02-at-11-08-26-am

screen-shot-2016-10-02-at-11-09-00-am

screen-shot-2016-10-02-at-11-08-47-amAs a reminder, our complete and final annual winter outlook will be posted here during the second half of October.  That will include additional model data, along with several other points behind our reasoning for our winter forecast.  As we always do, we’ll put “pen to paper” when it comes to our winter forecast, including our expected temperature and snowfall anomalies.  Given the data above, including the warm JAMSTEC and NMME, it’s going to be very, very hard to see a warm winter here.  In fact, our idea is for the exact opposite, given the SST configuration, and lines up more closely with the SST CA idea at this point.  We’re also in the camp of a very, very active storm track through the Ohio Valley.  “Big-hitter” potential is present from a winter storm perspective, especially given that we are likely to see resistance from the SE ridge.

Much more later this month…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/10/02/winter-ideas/

New SST CA Model Weighs In On Winter…

The updated Sea Surface Temperature Constructed Analog model is in for the winter. In short, it suggests a slow start to winter gains momentum and turns much colder as mid and late winter arrive. It’s also a stormy look, locally, and would imply big-hitter potential in the Ohio Valley.

500mb pattern

*Note how the trough becomes more established over the central and east during the January through March period. 

Temperature anomalies


The consistency is remarkable on the bullish cold signal for the central and east for the January-March time frame. We note high agreement, month-over-month, on the J-M time frame being significantly cold. 

Precipitation anomalies

*No doubt a stormy signal through the Ohio Valley.

Time is ticking…winter will be here before we know it! Our official annual winter outlook will be out in October. 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/04/new-sst-ca-model-weighs-in-on-winter/

Storms For Some; More Winter Chatter…

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SST CA Model Weighs In On The Upcoming Winter…

It may only be August, but thoughts here are solely focused now on the upcoming fall and winter seasons.  We received an update today from the sea surface temperature constructed analogue model and the look is a “mighty fine one” if you enjoy wintry conditions, locally.

As we’ve mentioned in previous video and text posts, the once-thought moderate to strong La Nina doesn’t appear to be taking shape and instead we’re likely left with a weak La Nina to neutral look.  Factor in the positive PDO and the overall pattern is one that could yield cold, snowy times, locally, especially the middle and latter parts of the winter season.  (No reason to get too specific this far out).

In any event, today’s update is an “intriguing” one for winter enthusiasts across the region.

Upper air pattern for DJF and JFM, indicating the colder, more wintry regime for mid and late winter:

Screen Shot 2016-08-03 at 6.36.29 PM

Screen Shot 2016-08-03 at 6.18.03 PMPrecipitation DJF

Screen Shot 2016-08-03 at 6.17.55 PMTemperature anomalies DJF and JFM

Screen Shot 2016-08-03 at 6.38.08 PM

Screen Shot 2016-08-03 at 6.17.47 PMHmmmmm… 🙂

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/08/03/sst-ca-model-weighs-in-on-the-upcoming-winter/

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UPDATED SST CA Model Is In The House…

As promised, we wanted to provide some thoughts around the updated sea surface temperature constructed analog model that was released this morning.  In short, there aren’t many huge differences from…

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Monday Morning Weather Rambles…

September is still running much warmer than normal, despite the recent well below average regime. See the temperature anomalies over the past (7) days:    and the month-to-date:      …

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More Winter Chatter…

Now that we’re in September (where does time go?!) we wanted to touch base on some of our latest thinking as we rumble closer to winter… * Our official 2015-2016…

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Saturday Morning: A Look Where We’ve Been And Where We’re Going…

August has been cooler and drier than normal month-to-date.  As we’ll get into below, this cooler, dry trend should continue to wrap up the month.

* Click on any image to enlarge.

August temperature departure- month-to-date.

August temperature departure- month-to-date.

August precipitation departure- month-to-date

August precipitation departure- month-to-date2015 to date has been cool central and east:2015 to date has been cool central and east:

2015 to date has been cool central and east:

4The upcoming winter looks fun and challenging.  It’s a volatile look with the strong Nino and warm northern, eastern Pacific (positive PDO).  Certainly can’t “broad brush” the upcoming winter forecast solely based off similar strong Ninos of the past…

10Positive PDO temperature anomalies favor western Canada ridging and troughiness east.  It’s a pattern that favors a cooler than normal regime across the east and southeast.

11As we go into the weekend, sunshine and comfortable conditions today will give way to increasingly cloudy skies Sunday with a threat of a shower or thunderstorm, especially during the afternoon and evening.  A few of these storms could reach strong levels.  The culprit?  Another strong late August cold front.  Most rainfall totals will be around a quarter inch Sunday, but there will be some locally heavier totals with stronger storms.

5Warmer conditions will build in briefly in between the early week cool spell and stronger push of cool inbound Sunday night that will remain with us through the majority of the upcoming work week.

6

7Longer term, we think conditions warm going into next weekend after a very cool, fall-like week, but don’t necessarily agree with the GFS ensemble plot below into early September.

3We expect ridging to build in to close the last couple days of August.

9However, recurving Typhoon Atsani argues for a return of cooler air (briefly) and an associated trough arriving between September 2nd and 4th…

8Images credited to the following:

  • weatherbell.com
  • http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/
  • http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/cliwatch/watch.htm#seasonMaps

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/08/22/saturday-morning-a-look-where-weve-been-and-where-were-going/

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