Category: Spring

Apr 20

Heading In The Wrong Direction…

Screen Shot 2015-04-20 at 3.32.01 PMHighlights:

  • Prolonged unseasonably cool weather
  • Band of showers late Tuesday night/ early Wednesday
  • Frost potential late week
  • Watching a storm system Friday night/ Saturday

SAT_ERG2_VIS_ANISurface low pressure is wrapping up over the Great Lakes region this afternoon with a much cooler air mass flowing into IN.  Though the steady widespread rains have ended, we will maintain a mention of spotty showers into the evening before diminishing.  It’s a gusty day and that will continue.  Most of Tuesday will be rain-free and cool, but a reinforcing push of chilly air will blow into the region late tomorrow night and Wednesday morning, and this will likely be accompanied by a band of showers.  Unseasonably cool air will be the rule through the forecast period.  The next potential “trouble maker” on the radar will take aim on the region late Friday into Saturday.  Forecast models don’t agree on the northward extent of the steady rains, but based off experience and the time of the year we’ll lean towards the solutions favoring a more northerly track.  Stay tuned.

1Forecast radar shown above, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, highlights Tuesday night/ early Wednesday for the threat of a band of showers in advance of a reinforcing push of cool air.

2The next item on the agenda features the potential of wet, chilly, and just downright raw times closing the week and heading into the weekend.  The Canadian model, shown above, is one of a couple models with a more northward flavor of rain Friday night into Saturday.

3Chilly times are the rule for the foreseeable future, friends.  After a warm April (to date), a combination of the GFS and European computer guidance suggests highs are below 60 for the upcoming 10 days.

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Apr 19

Unseasonably Cool Stretch…

Screen Shot 2015-04-19 at 9.10.05 PMHighlights:

  • More heavy rain and embedded thunder tonight
  • Unseasonably cool air this week
  • Frost and freeze threat

SAT_EUS_WVENH_ANILow pressure over IN this evening will move north into the Great Lakes Monday and strengthen along the way.  A cold front will sweep through the region later tonight and Monday morning and shut off the heavier rainfall.  Before that we have several hours of additional moderate to heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms tonight.  Tomorrow will be a breezy and MUCH cooler day and help set the tone for the week as a whole.  We’ll watch for a weak disturbance to provide a shower chance mid week and keep a close eye on the weekend for the chances of rain.  Model data is in disagreement on Saturday as of now.

RAD_KIND_N0R_ANITonight’s radar, courtesy of WeatherTap.com, shows another slug of moderate to heavy rain and embedded thunder moving in from the south.  Heavy downpours will make for excellent sleeping weather tonight.

Overall rain coverage will decrease significantly as we progress through Monday, but we can’t totally rule out the chance of afternoon showers redeveloping in “pop-corn” fashion as just enough sunshine may work on what will be a very unseasonably cool air mass moving in.

Forecast radar, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, shows this Monday afternoon.

1Unseasonably chilly air will be the rule this week- including 50s for highs most every day.  The only exception may be highs around 60 Tuesday and highs that may not make it out of the 40s Wednesday.  Frost and freeze conditions will be a concern on multiple nights/ mornings this week.

2 3After a warm month (to date) [image 1], Mother Nature will do what she does best- attempt to balance things out the upcoming 7-10 days [image 2].

1 2

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/unseasonably-cool-stretch/

Apr 18

Almost Summer-like Today Before Sunday Storms…

Screen Shot 2015-04-18 at 8.02.52 AMHighlights:

  • Lower 80s today!
  • Heavy rain and storms Sunday
  • Cooler, showery Monday
  • MUCH cooler next week

SAT_EUS_WVENH_ANIThis morning’s water vapor image, courtesy of Weathertap.com, shows the big swirl over the CO Rockies.  This will continue to move slowly east over the next couple of days.  Surface low pressure will organize over the lower MS Valley tonight and move north into Indiana Sunday afternoon and evening.  After a beautiful Saturday, clouds will increase tonight and widespread rain and thunderstorms will arrive Sunday morning.  With a deep Gulf connection, expect heavy rainfall, as well.  Much cooler air will then take over next week- jackets will be needed!

Before the rain and storms move in Sunday, be sure to enjoy the weather today- lots of sunshine and lower 80s!

hrrr_t2m_max_indy_12Forecast radar, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, shows the wet and stormy Sunday ahead.  Rain will push north through early and mid morning Sunday, continuing into the evening.

hires_ref_indy_32 hires_ref_indy_37 hires_ref_indy_40An average of 1″ to 1.5″ of rain is likely, with isolated heavier totals Sunday.  The model breakdown is below.

The Canadian shows the least amount of rain, with 0.50″ – 0.75″ through central IN.

GEMTotThe GFS paints 1.2″ of rain through central IN, with a “ribbon” of enhanced rainfall along the IN/ IL state line.

GFSTotThe high resolution NAM places emphasis on central and eastern portions of the state, including 1.5″ to 2″ amounts.

NAMTotThe RGEM shows a similar story to the high resolution NAM (above) with 1.5″ to 2″ through central IN.

RGEMTot

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/almost-summer-like-today-before-sunday-storms/

Apr 17

Friday Evening Video Update…

https://youtu.be/_5kethxFEUw

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/friday-evening-video-update-3/

Apr 17

Warm Now, But Cooler Times Loom…

Screen Shot 2015-04-17 at 7.28.41 AMHighlights:

  • Early morning dense fog
  • Warm and dry close to the week
  • Wet and stormy second half of the weekend
  • Much cooler next week
  • 7-Day model average precipitation totals range from 1″ to 1.5″, with locally heavier totals

SAT_EUS_IR4ENH_ANIThe infrared satellite this morning, courtesy of Weathertap.com, is showing a significant storm system dumping major snows along the CO Front Range.  Additionally, later today, this storm system will help spawn a severe weather outbreak across eastern CO, NE, and KS.

Locally, we have no weather worries after we rid ourselves of the dense fog currently in place across central Indiana.  Once the fog burns off it’s nothing but sunshine and warmth and an absolute ideal close to the work week and open to the weekend.  Highs today (image 1) will reach the lower to middle 70s and we forecast highs Saturday in the upper 70s (image 2), both courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

hires_t2m_max_indy_5

hires_t2m_max_indy_12Things will begin to transition to stormy times for the second half of the weekend as a “piece” of that big Rocky Mountain storm system breaks away and helps develop a new surface low over the MS River Valley.  This low pressure system will ride into the Ohio Valley and provide widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday.

Here’s a look at the 2p forecast radar Sunday, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

hires_ref_indy_61The Storm Prediction Center has outlined far southern portions of the state for a Slight Risk of severe weather Sunday.

day3otlk_0730As we turn our attention to next week, unseasonably cool air will engulf a large portion of the east.  Reinforcing chilly air will push in later next week, after the first surge of chill arrives Monday night/ Tuesday.

D4

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/warm-now-but-cooler-times-loom/