Turning Colder To Close The Work Week…

Highlights:

  • Showers with falling temperatures today
  • Rain and snow showers Thursday
  • Cold close to the work week
  • Windy weekend warm-up comes with showers

Downward Trend…Showers will increase in coverage this afternoon and evening as temperatures fall into the 40s (this afternoon) and 30s (this evening).  Certainly plan to carry the jacket with you to work and school as you’ll need it on the way home this evening.

Our next weather maker will be a fast-moving clipper system that will arrive Thursday afternoon.  Gusty showers will blow through central Indiana through the afternoon and evening hours before transitioning to snow showers and embedded heavier squalls (capable of a quick coating where the heavier squalls occur).  A dry, but cold close to the work week is ahead with highs Friday only in the middle 30s.

Just as quickly as the cold air hits, it’ll leave this weekend as a windy warm-up develops.  A flurry or sprinkle is possible Saturday as the warm front lifts north and then showers will increase in coverage, along with a strengthening southwest wind (gusts of 40 MPH +) Sunday.

A strong cold front looks to blow through the region Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms a good bet Monday night into Tuesday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting
  • Rainfall:1.00″-1.50″

Transitional Week Of Weather…

Highlights:

  • Warming back up
  • Storms around Tuesday-Wednesday
  • Colder late week
  • Windy warm-up next weekend

Don’t Blink…The second half of the weekend has gotten off to a frosty, but bright start!  Unfortunately, clouds will begin to increase this afternoon.  Thankfully, the increasing clouds won’t keep temperatures from getting a significant boost this afternoon compared to the frigid air of Saturday.

A few showers will scoot through the state Monday, but most of these will be confined to the southern third of Indiana and most neighborhoods should remain rain-free.  A more significant storm system will lift northeast Tuesday and this will provide better coverage of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday (especially late in the day) into Wednesday.  After a midnight high, temperatures will fall through the daytime hours Wednesday.

Another fast-moving, weak, weather maker will impact us Thursday evening into Friday morning.  Scattered showers Thursday PM will transition to light snow showers overnight into early Friday morning.  Friday will be chilly, but moderating conditions return as early as Saturday, along with a strong and gusty southwest flow by the afternoon!

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Trace – Dusting
  • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.25″

Severe T-storms This Evening Give Way To Much Colder Air This Weekend…

Highlights:

  • Record warmth
  • Severe t-storm potential this evening
  • Scattered snow showers Saturday
  • Active pattern next week

Focused On Severe Weather This Evening…Though the day is beginning on a quiet note, we’re concerned it might not end that way, as strong to severe thunderstorms impact central Indiana this afternoon and evening.  The sunshine this morning is actually something that adds further concern for the potential of explosive thunderstorm development later today.  More specifically, we’re bracketing the hours of 4p and 10p for the likelihood of storms impacting central parts of the state (west to east), and some of these may become severe.  All modes of severe weather are in play today, including large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two.  Please have a means of getting the latest warning information and ensure you know your family’s severe plan.  Otherwise, we forecast to shatter the record high today as we zoom all the way into the middle 70s with a gusty southerly wind.

Winter will return with authority tonight and set-up a much colder weekend.  That high in the upper 40s Saturday will actually come at midnight with falling temperatures (most of the daytime hours will feature low-mid 30s with ‘chills in the 20s), windy conditions, and scattered snow showers.

A weak weather system is looking less and less impressive for the second half of the weekend, but we’ll continue to keep a chance of light rain in our forecast by evening.

Better rain chances will begin to ramp up Monday evening and become widespread Tuesday, including the possibility of thunderstorms, as well.  The second half of next week will trend colder…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Trace
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Don’t Get Lulled To Sleep…

Overall, as mild as this winter has been (particularly on the snow front), it’s easy to think we’re done with wintry precipitation- especially after this stretch of 60°+ weather.  That said, we still have to get through March, and as long-time Midwesterners know, the third month of the year can yield some wild swings, including late season wintry events.  Yes, including even the mild winters of the past…

Modeling is beginning to show at least a shift towards unseasonably cold conditions as we progress through the first couple of weeks of March.  In the face of the prolonged stretch of April-like warmth of late, this will be a shock in and of itself.


Longer-term indications would suggest the period of chilly, wintry-like, air has a window to take over, but the window is small.  Trends would seem to yield warmer solutions once past mid-month, with perhaps a “stick and hold” spring regime taking over.

Before that, we have a couple of weeks in front of us to open March that won’t only provide out-of-season cold, but we must also pay close attention to the potential of northwest flow clipper systems.  There’s no reason to get detailed and specific from this distance, but the pattern suggests we need to be on the look-out for the potential of one or two snow makers as we move through the first couple weeks of the month.  March clippers can be a headache as the March warmth south of the track of the system can help add energy and turn a weak event into an impactful snow event to the north of the low’s track.  Hoosiers don’t have to be reminded how significant March clippers can be at times.  Is this the year we have to deal with one or two of these stronger clippers?  Wouldn’t it be ironic after such a mild winter thus far?  Don’t let Mother Nature “lull” you to sleep…

Active Pattern Ramping Up; Monitoring Multiple Storm Chances…

Highlights:

  • Spring-like air continues
  • Severe t-storm potential Friday PM
  • Much colder weekend
  • Another round of strong-severe storms next week?

Buckle Up For A Wild Ride…Morning fog (some very dense, especially north of the city) will burn off and give way to increasing sunshine today, along with unseasonably warm temperatures.  In fact, we’ll be near-record territory (Indy’s record high today is 70° and we forecast to tie that record this afternoon).  We’ll remain near record territory over the next couple of days, but our attention will, unfortunately, have to shift from the record warmth to strong-severe thunderstorm potential.

Most of Thursday will be dry, but a few scattered showers will likely dot the central IN landscape by the evening hours.  Similar to Thursday, most of the day Friday will also be dry.  It’s not until we head into Friday evening and night that we’re concerned for thunderstorms tracking through the state.  A few of these storms will likely reach severe levels.  Large hail and damaging winds are of greatest concern with the severe thunderstorms that develop.  The cold front will sweep the state Friday night and a midnight high Saturday morning in the upper 40s will crash (most of the daytime will feature temperatures in the 30s with wind chills in the 20s) and wind-whipped snow flurries can be expected.

A weak weather system is still expected late Sunday and could feature a light rain and snow mix (not a big deal).  What will be a bigger deal is a much stronger storm system rolling through the Mid West early next week.  Unfortunately, another round of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Trace
  • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″