After an unseasonably cool and dry week to open the month, much more active times await as we head into the middle of August.
Upper air disturbances will ride southeast into the region to open the work week on the nose of a much more humid airmass trying to invade the area. These ripples of energy will be enough to lead to more organized thunderstorms, including locally heavy rain at times. Unlike what’s typical this time of year, this week will feature times of storms that rumble in during the nighttime and morning hours.
A frontal boundary will settle south into the region during the middle and latter parts of the work week before stalling out. This will serve as a focal point for additional thunderstorm chances for the 2nd half of the week, continuing into the weekend.
While it’ll be a warmer week, it’s more the humidity that will really make a difference. Daytime highs will remain close to average this week, overall, but overnight lows will be muggy- only falling to around 70° most nights.
We have no changes to our weekly rainfall forecast: 1″ to 2″ for most with localized heavier totals where stronger storms track.
I’ll be on the road tomorrow and will have our client video posted Monday evening.
I. A round of strong (and locally severe) storms blew through north-central parts of the state earlier this afternoon and as we write this, yet another batch of storms is erupting across IL. These storms should hold together into central IN late evening (targeting a 8p-11p arrival west to east) and a few could become severe. Ingredients in place favor strong, damaging wind gusts with the stronger cells, but there’s also the opportunity for a quick spin-up tornado. Torrential downpours can be expected with any and all storms. It’ll be wise to keep tabs on the local radar this evening.
II. As can be expected the deeper into summer we go, the tropics become more active. That’s certainly been the case over the past couple days and all indications continue to point towards a particularly “robust” season as late summer gives way to fall. Interests to the Gulf Coast beaches and Carolina coast should pay close attention to the tropical outlooks in the coming weeks and months. Unfortunately, conditions seem ripe for the opportunity of a few major hurricanes this season, especially when you combine the SST profile with the tendency for the MJO to spend time in Phases 2-3.
In the shorter term, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is keeping close tabs on the Gulf as well as newly formed TD 7.
III. Overall upper pattern strongly suggests we can expect a very active close to July and open to August. Between next week and the first few days of August, we’re tracking 3 cold fronts that will help to beat back the heat and serve up above normal rainfall through the period (not to mention threat of additional strong to severe storms).
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/07/21/another-round-of-storms-inbound-tonight-some-strong-tropics-heat-up-active-pattern-to-close-july-open-august/
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A band of light showers is falling across southern Indiana this morning, but these are expected to diminish before pushing into central Indiana. Most of the remainder of our Wednesday should be rain-free.
The quiet times will give way to a couple of rounds of storms during the overnight and into Friday. Most notably for central Indiana, we think storm chances will increase significantly after midnight and through the predawn hours Thursday. Locally heavy rain and vivid lightning is expected with the stronger storms.
These storms are in association with a warm front lifting north through the state. Speaking of warm, we’ll certainly notice a difference in air masses between today (still relatively cool and dry) and tomorrow (much warmer and more humid). In fact, highs Thursday will flirt with 80° across most of central Indiana.
Once we get rid of the early morning storms, most of the remainder of our Thursday will be dry and feature a return of the sun.
Another round of storms is expected Thursday night into Friday, but most of these will remain well north of our area. A few of these could become severe across northwestern Indiana during this period.
Rain and storm chances will increase once again during the day Friday across central Indiana. A few strong storms will be possible.
As we look ahead to the weekend, it appears we’ll be able to enjoy a mostly dry day Saturday (widely scattered storm possible) before more widespread storms return Sunday. Warm and humid conditions will prevail. A cold front will move through the area early next week which will allow for briefly cooler, drier air to move in during the 1st half of next week. Before that takes place, rainfall amounts between tonight and Sunday are expected to range from 1.5” – 2” with locally heavier totals across central Indiana. Heavier rainfall amounts can be expected across northern Indiana (widespread 3” to 4” amounts during the same period).
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A strong winter storm system will impact a good chunk of the country between today and Sunday morning. More specific to Indiana, rain will begin to overspread the region (initially…
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High resolution guidance started to show the snowier solutions earlier this evening and that trend has continued this evening. The consistency is great to see, but we also notice a couple of interesting elements “upstream” that will likely ultimately end up producing a memorable mid-December snow storm across central Indiana by the time all is said and done.
Before we talk specifics, here’s our updated snowfall forecast. Please note, this is expected total snowfall by daybreak Tuesday morning. We wouldn’t be shocked to hear of localized one foot amounts along the I-70 corridor.
Periods of heavy snow will come to an end during the overnight. We think by 3a to 4a, most of the snow from “round 1″ will be to our east and we’ll be left with clean up duties before a Monday morning rush that will likely still be heavily impacted. By the time the 1st round is finished, most of the I-70 corridor will be shoveling and plowing away 4″ to 6” of wet snow.
We’ll then get into the expected lull in the action through a good chunk of the daytime Monday. That said, curious eyes will be focused in on south-central MO mid-to-late morning as precipitation blossoms in response to a strengthening surface wave that will move northeast out of the Ark-la-tex and into the TN Valley tomorrow night.
Precipitation will expand in coverage and intensity yet again tomorrow morning to our southwest.
This will promote an expanding shield of moderate to heavy precipitation moving northeast and overspreading central Indiana by mid afternoon Monday. For us here across central Indiana, this will fall as snow.
Heavy snow will return to the I-70 corridor Monday afternoon.
If you don’t have to travel tomorrow, we’d recommend staying home and off the roads. While conditions will improve late morning into early afternoon, travel conditions will go downhill in significant fashion by 3p to 4p Monday across central Indiana- including the metro.
Periods of snow, heavy at times, will continue into the overnight before pushing off to the east before sunrise Tuesday. By that time, the heart of central Indiana will be cleaning up from a double digit and most memorable mid-December snow storm.
Periods of snow will continue into the overnight Monday.
We’ll be left with colder, but generally dry conditions Tuesday. Temperatures will remain below freezing through the day, but the majority of the region won’t be dealing with any additional snowfall after sunrise…
Gas up that snowblower! Next update will come early in the AM.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/15/time-for-the-heavy-equipment-localized-storm-totals-approach-one-foot-by-the-time-all-is-said-and-done/
