Category: Short term update

Aug 13

Storms Arrive Overnight…

Updated 08.13.22 @ 7:52a

Just a quick update this morning before a more complete video discussion hits the site tonight.

We’re off to a quiet and cool start to the day with many once again waking up to temperatures down into the 50s with clear conditions. Majority, if not all, of today will be free of any rain and storm activity but that will change tonight. We’re still targeting an elevated storm cluster that will blow southeast across the region during the overnight hours and into Sunday morning.

Majority of central Indiana rain gauges will likely pick up around half an inch of rain.

While the majority of “organized” rain and storms will move out of the region by mid to late morning, a pesky cloud deck and light showers will likely linger for most into the afternoon hours.

More on this and looking ahead to the remainder of August later tonight!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/08/13/storms-arrive-overnight/

Jul 08

Central Indiana Poised To Finally Cash In On Heavy Rains…

Updated 07.08.22 @ 7:30a

0.14″. That’s it in the rainfall department, officially recorded at IND, for the month so far. While several neighborhoods have seen much more rainfall than that, it reiterates just how dry it’s been here for most immediate central Indiana communities. In fact, we have to go all the way back to June 12th to find the last 24 hour period where IND recorded anything close to even half an inch of rain (0.49″).

With all of that said, a combination of ingredients should come together to finally allow a widespread chunk of central Indiana to accumulate hefty rain totals as we get set to close out the work week.

I. We have added forcing from a cold front and wave of low pressure that will move along the boundary as it sags south this evening. This will aid in helping more widespread coverage of rain and thunderstorms fire, especially as we progress into the afternoon and evening.

II. A truly tropical airmass engulfs the region this morning and this will remain in place until the cold front clears the area late tonight. Precipitable water values in excess of 2″ combined with dew points in the lower to middle 70s will allow rain and storms to feed off the juicy air this afternoon and evening. Rainfall rates of 2″+ per hour will be common in the heavier cells. Should storms train over the same areas, flash flooding will likely develop.

III. As the wave of low pressure moves across the state this afternoon and evening, it could help enhance the threat of severe weather, especially along and south of the I-70 corridor. A quick spin-up tornado isn’t out of the realm of possibility but the bigger severe threats appear to be from wet microbursts (damaging wind/ hail).

We anticipate many central Indiana neighborhoods to accumulate at least an inch of rain today with some communities seeing locally heavier totals. Again, where heavier cells train, localized flash flooding will develop.

Eventually the front will settle south and clear the state tonight. This will allow drier and MUCH less humid to return to the region just in time for the weekend. We expect plentiful sunshine, low humidity, and cooler temperatures to dominate through the day Monday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/07/08/central-indiana-poised-to-finally-cash-in-on-heavy-rains/

Jul 06

VIDEO: Looking At The 2nd Half Of The Week And Into Week 2…

Updated 07.06.22 @ 5:05p

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/07/06/video-looking-at-the-2nd-half-of-the-week-and-into-week-2/

May 27

VIDEO: Perfect Timing For Our Improving Weather; Quiet Regime Into Early Next Week…

Updated 05.27.21 @ 7:50a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/05/27/video-perfect-timing-for-our-improving-weather-quiet-regime-into-early-next-week/

Feb 23

Mid-Morning Update…

Updated 02.23.22 @ 10:04a

As we analyze downstream radar trends and fresh high resolution, short-term guidance, it appears as if the initial burst of precipitation is speeding up. It now looks like a mixture of light snow and light sleet will arrive into central Indiana between 7p and 10p.

Forecast radar at 10p Wednesday.

Along and north of the I-70 corridor, this should fall primarily as snow (up to 1”). Further south, a mixture of sleet and freezing rain is expected this evening (where things remains all freezing rain, a light glaze, perhaps up to 0.1”. is expected to develop on elevated surfaces by sunrise).

Our updated client brief will be posted later this evening and include additional thoughts as the 12z data streams in.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/02/23/mid-morning-update/

May 17

Unsettled Open To The Week…

Updated 05.17.21 @ 7:51a The transition to a more summer-like regime is being kicked off with showers and embedded thunder this morning. As we look forward to the rest of…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/05/17/unsettled-open-to-the-week/

May 16

Change Is On The Horizon…

Updated 05.16.21 @ 7:40a

Scattered light showers are scooting across central Indiana this morning but our airmass still will take some time to saturate throughout all levels. As such, we don’t expect widespread heavy rain and embedded thunder until we get into the new work week. You’ll notice an increasingly muggy time of things Monday and Tuesday. Note the Gulf connection below. This will send dew points well into the 60s. Temperatures will also be on the rise (low/mid 80s) which will have things feeling very much like summer by mid and late week.

The transition of air masses will lead to a stretch of unsettled weather. We note model guidance has trended wetter over the past 24 hours for immediate central Indiana. We’re now honing in on Monday evening into Tuesday morning offering up the most widespread heavy rain and embedded thunder. Locally heavy rain will be possible during this timeframe. Some central Indiana rain gauges may pick up more than 2” of rain during this time period. Widespread 1.25” to 1.75” amounts can be expected.

Scattered, “splash and dash” storms will remain in our forecast into midweek before high pressure nudges itself into place and promotes a drier regime for the 2nd half of the week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/05/16/change-is-on-the-horizon/

Mar 23

Thursday Storm Chatter…

Updated 03.23.21 @ 7:10p

After a couple predawn showers Wednesday, the remainder of the day should be quiet and free of any significant rain. However, by this time, eyes will be focused on the possibility of a more significant event on Thursday.

Model guidance is beginning to suggest this will come at the state in (2) waves. The first rain/ storm cluster will likely arrive mid to late Thursday morning and may feature some embedded strong/ severe cells across downstate Indiana. Given the ingredients in play, hail would be the greatest threat from these morning storms across southern Indiana. Further north, across immediate central Indiana, severe weather isn’t expected, but general rain and storms will be a good bet, including locally heavy rain.

11a Thursday forecast radar

We will then likely see a lull in the activity into the early to mid afternoon hours before a second round of storms blows through during the evening. This 2nd wave of storms may feature more of a damaging wind threat from places in and around Bloomington and points south. From this distance, it appears as if the time period between 5p-8p is the one to watch.

6p Thursday forecast radar

While it continues to look like the more substantial severe threat will be south of the region, that isn’t to say the southern portions of the state won’t see a warning or two Thursday and we’ll continue to keep a close eye out as time draws closer.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/03/23/thursday-storm-chatter/

Jan 25

Early Afternoon Update On Today’s Wintry Mix…

Updated 01.25.21 @ 1:42p

After a wintry mix that featured everything (and the kitchen sink ;-)) during the onset has predominantly transitioned over to sleet and freezing rain across immediate central Indiana. Look for this to continue for the next couple of hours before the 1st wave of significant moisture moves east by mid to late afternoon.

As we look forward, another wave of lighter precipitation will target the northern half of the state (especially from Indianapolis and points north) later this evening into Tuesday morning. Though precipitation should be lighter with this next wave, the concern is that it may still fall as “frozen” (sleet) or “freezing” (rain) during this time period, especially from the northern Indianapolis suburbs and points north as temperatures look to hover around, or just below, the freezing mark through the evening. The difference of just 1° truly will make a world of difference of the associated impacts regarding travel tonight and early Tuesday morning north of the city. You can see how high resolution guidance keeps the sub-freezing air locked in place just north of Indianapolis tonight.

For our clients in the salting and snow removal business, plan to remain busy during the overnight across the northern half of the state as this next wave of moisture moves in. An additional .10 to .25 (liquid equivalent) can be expected for central Indiana with liquid equivalent amounts of .25 to .50 across the northern 1/3 of the state.

More on this and what lies ahead for midweek in our evening video update. Stay safe out there, friends!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/01/25/early-afternoon-update-on-todays-wintry-mix/

Dec 30

VIDEO: Short-Term Update On Flip To Wet Snow This Evening And Freezing Rain NYD Morning…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/12/30/video-short-term-update-on-flip-to-wet-snow-this-evening-and-freezing-rain-nyd-morning/

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