Category Archives: Short term update

Short-Term Discussion: Afternoon Storm Complex With Heightened Damaging Wind Potential…

Updated 06.29.23 @ 12p

The storm complex currently entering IL will likely have a downstream impact on Indiana later this afternoon into the early evening hours. Several ingredients are in place that leads to a higher confidence in this storm cluster including a widespread damaging wind threat (55+ MPH gusts).

High resolution data continues to show this complex gaining steam as it rolls across central Indiana between 4p and 6p. We caution, these kind of storm clusters can pick up momentum downstream so it’ll be important to remain weather-aware and in position to act when (don’t think it’s a matter of “if” any longer) warnings are issued really anytime after 3p.

Ingredients are in play that may carry this wind machine across the entire central IN stretch and even into northern KY and southwestern OH by evening.

I’d recommend taking the opportunity to ensure your electronic devices are charged and severe weather safety plan is in place now prior to this activity moving in over the next few hours. Unfortunately the evolving look to current radar trends just after the 12p timeframe only raises confidence of this being a rather widespread damaging wind maker with resulting power outages.

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Evolution Of Things Into Early Next Week…

Updated 04.26.23 @ 6:44a

Today and Thursday morning are “easy peasy.” Look for dry times and plentiful sunshine today giving way to increasing clouds Thursday morning.

Those clouds will give way to a shield of rain lifting from our southwest to northeast late Thursday morning into Friday morning, courtesy of an initial wave of low pressure moving into the Ohio Valley.

Generally, heaviest rain within this time period will fall across southeast Indiana.

Amounts of a half inch (locally heavier) seems like a good call as far northwest as Indianapolis and surrounding ‘burbs.

As we head into the weekend the trend will once again be a cooler one, with the emphasis placed on the 2nd half of the weekend for the coolest air and more unsettled conditions (showery nature but nothing heavy expected). 60s Saturday will be replaced with 50s Sunday. Eventually, as skies clear and winds calm, another opportunity for frost looms Monday or Tuesday morning of next week as lows fall into the middle 30s.

No Comments Client, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, Short term update, Spring, Unseasonably Cool Weather

Stormy Day Ahead Of A Gorgeous Easter Weekend…

Updated 04.05.23 @ 7:13a

Today is one of those days where it will be important to remain weather-aware and have a means of getting the latest warnings that will likely be issued. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to include all of the state in an ‘enhanced risk’ of severe weather today. All modes of severe weather are in play with the greatest emphasis placed on damaging straight line wind potential, but a couple of tornadoes can’t be ruled out. Large hail is also possible, especially if we get discrete cells to pop ahead of the main line later this afternoon (more on that below).

Out the door this morning, it’s easy to understand the environment is one conducive of stormy weather. We’re already in the middle 70s at the 7a hour (that will be close to our high today) and dew points are into the lower to middle 60s. Instability will increase in the coming hours and it won’t be long before a Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Watch is issued for a part, if not most, of the state.

As we time out the arrival of storms, we think things unfold in 2 waves today. The first round of storms likely comes from individual cells, or clusters, mid to late morning. These will be scattered in nature but have the potential to rotate and also produce large hail.

The 2nd wave will come from a more widespread squall line and that’s where we anticipate the greatest opportunity of damaging straight line winds. Please note this doesn’t mean there still couldn’t be a quick spin-up tornado embedded within the squall line.

The other item to add here has to do with gradient winds that will approach 50 MPH even outside of thunderstorms. If you haven’t already, we’d highly encourage bringing in or securing any loose objects that could easily be blown about.

Weather conditions will rapidly improve from west to east as we move into the evening hours and this will set the stage for the remainder of the week, including our Easter weekend. High pressure will build overhead and supply an extended stretch of sunny days and calm nights, including lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s, eventually warming into the 60s for highs this weekend, and into the 70s early next week.

Please be sure to remain weather-aware today and heed any warnings that will likely be issued in the coming hours.

No Comments Client, Easter, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Hail, Rain, Severe Weather, Short term update, T-storms, Tornadoes, Windy

Friday Afternoon Briefing: Severe Threat Continues To Increase…

Updated 03.31.23 @ 2:15p

The talented folks over at the Storm Prediction Center have increased the Day 1 severe threat to now include most of the state in a Moderate (level 4 out 5) risk. It should also be pointed out that all modes of severe weather are in play, including tornadoes, some of which could be long track.

We continue to believe discrete cells will begin to fire later this evening (targeting initiation between 4p and 6p) across the state and it won’t take much for these to begin to show signs of rotation. If you don’t have to travel tonight, we recommend making it a night in and keeping tuned to the latest watches and warnings that will be sure to come.

As we progress deeper into the evening and early overnight hours, that’s when we expect a squall line, capable of producing damaging straight line winds, to march across the state from west to east. We bracket the hours of 10p to 2a west to east for impacts. In addition to the heightened damaging wind threat, it’s possible some of the embedded cells within the line will try and rotate, leading to a spin up tornado potential within the advancing line, especially for western and central parts of the state.

No need for panic or alarm, these events take place every year around these parts. Just ensure to review your severe weather plan and stay tuned to local media for the latest warnings that will be issued later this afternoon and into the evening.

No Comments Client, Forecast Discussion, Severe Weather, Short term update, T-storms, Tornadoes, Windy