Category Archives: Short term update

Dinnertime Rambles: Active Night And Sharply Colder Wednesday…

Updated 02.27.24 @ 6:42p

As we write this update, severe storms are firing across northern IL where a Tornado Watch has been issued until 11p (eastern). Meanwhile, all is quiet on the home front, thanks to strong “capping” in the mid levels of the atmosphere. Unfortunately, that cap likely won’t hold and we still anticipate scattered strong to severe storms to impact central and southern Indiana during the overnight.

All modes of severe weather remain on the table, including damaging straight line winds, large hail, and tornadoes. Initiation of convection across central/ southern IN should come around or just after midnight and end by 3a to 4a (west to east).

Please make sure you have a means to receive the latest severe weather alerts prior to heading to bed tonight.

By the time most are waking up Wednesday, we’ll be talking about an entirely different array of conditions. Sharply colder air, light snow showers, and strong northwesterly winds will ensure to remind folks it’s late-February, after all.

No Comments Client, Severe Weather, Short term update, Weather Rambles

Localized Wet, Heavy Snow Bands Set Up Downstate Monday Night; Tracking 2 Additional Systems In The Week Ahead…

Updated 02.11.24 @ 8:38a

We’ll get to enjoy one more quiet, calm day. Our Super Bowl Sunday will feature a continuation of unseasonably pleasant conditions with plentiful sunshine and mild temperatures. We’ll rise from the upper 20s this morning into the mid to upper 40s this afternoon with dry conditions.

This morning’s visible satellite image shows mostly clear conditions in place across the state.

We’re still tracking an area of low pressure that will move into the lower Ohio Valley Monday. As of this morning, this continues to look like a south of I-70 event, including rain that will overspread downstate Monday afternoon before making the transition to wet snow Monday evening. A period of localized heavier banding is likely Monday night downstate and its within these localized “mesoscale bands” that a few folks may wake up Tuesday morning to 3″+ of snow. Otherwise, this appears to be a 1″ to 2″ slushy accumulation for our friends from the southern Indianapolis ‘burbs and points south. Outside of the heavier banding zone, this will be an accumulation event that takes place on grassy and elevated surfaces only.

An area of low pressure will lead to unsettled weather downstate to open the work week.

This is the zone we highlight for the potential of the meso banding to set up, leading to the potential of a bit more “hefty” accumulation.

We’ll be left with a few scattered snow showers Tuesday morning, otherwise, that’ll be it with this system for our neck of the woods. Heads up, if your travels take you to the Northeast big cities this week, plan for impacts from this system. (This should be the most widespread heavy snow so far this season from in and around NYC up to Boston).

Attention here will then shift to a weak (rain maker) system Thursday and then another opportunity for wintry mischief to close the week. Stay tuned!

No Comments Client, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, Short term update, snow, Wintry Mix

Rain Returns; Wet Snow Accumulation For Some Sunday Morning…

Saturday will once again dawn on a gloomy note, with cloudy skies, areas of dense fog, and drizzle, but we’re not looking at measurable rainfall across central Indiana until we…

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No Comments Client, ClientBrief, Forecast Discussion, Rain, Short term update, snow

Clipper Delivers Light Snow For NYE…

Updated 12.30.23 @ 7:54a

Despite our New Year’s Eve clipper, we’re heading for an unusually quiet weather pattern to open up the new year. The upcoming 10 days are forecast to run well below average from a precipitation standpoint.

In fact, after tomorrow’s light snow, it may not be until late next weekend or closer towards January 10th that we’re talking about our next precipitation chances. Rare, indeed, for this time of year.

Back to this morning’s headline and our clipper. Sunday should dawn dry but light snow will begin to become more widespread across central Indiana by mid to late morning.

Light snow will continue to fall through the early afternoon before we get into a brief lull in the activity. During this time frame we can also expect 10-20 MPH winds which may limit visibility slightly as the light snow falls. Daytime accumulation, if any, should be no more than a dusting.

After the lull in the activity, a second round of light snow will develop towards 10p to 11p, or so.

Though still light in nature, temperatures will settle below the freezing mark as this secondary batch of light snow falls.

While certainly not a heavy event by any means, just enough light snow and temperatures falling below freezing will likely create some localized slick spots across central Indiana tomorrow evening.

(Snow removal Clients, salting is recommended tomorrow evening).

Those with NYE plans out and about should allow extra time traveling home tomorrow evening. Light snow will diminish during the overnight and drier conditions should return for New Year’s Day, itself.

No Comments Client, Forecast Discussion, New Year's Eve/ Day, Short term update, snow

Short-Term Severe Weather Discussion…

Updated 08.06.23 @ 9:54a

Despite a few light morning showers, our Sunday will feature dry conditions through the remainder of the daylight hours along with increasing sunshine. The disturbance responsible for Saturday’s severe weather and unsettled conditions is on the way east while we wait a new potent disturbance on deck from the west. Unfortunately, this second disturbance has eyes set on our region tonight and will pose a dangerous overnight severe weather risk.

All modes of severe weather will be possible, including damaging winds, large hail, and a couple of quick spin-up tornadoes. It wouldn’t surprise me if a portion of the current ‘Slight Risk’ area is upgraded to an ‘Enhanced Risk’ across southern IN in future SPC (Storm Prediction Center) updates this afternoon.

From a timing standpoint, storms should approach western Indiana towards 10p, or so and then continue to advance east, southeast into the late evening and overnight hours.

Discrete cells may try and organize into more of a congealed line as we push closer towards midnight and, as such, the threat of a damaging wind event will become the eventual primary concern as we move through the early Monday morning hours across the southern half of Indiana.

Before heading to bed this evening, be sure to have a means of getting the latest warning information as there will likely be multiple warnings issued late this evening and into the early portion of the overnight.

Quieter (albeit briefly) weather conditions will return as we move through the first couple days of the new work week.

No Comments Client, Forecast Discussion, Hail, Severe Weather, Short term update, Summer, Tornadoes, Windy