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Category: Severe Weather
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/06/12/video-additional-storm-chances-before-drier-air-takes-hold/
May 31
Steamy Thursday Ends Stormy…
The Storm Prediction Center has placed southwestern Indiana under a Slight risk of severe weather, with extreme southern Indiana now included in an Enhanced risk.
Upper level energy will push east this afternoon and combine with an unstable air mass, along with unseasonably hot and humid air (highs today will reach the lower 90s across the southern half of the state with dew points around 70°), resulting in explosive thunderstorm development this evening. Storms will rumble east during the nighttime hours before exiting off to the east and diminishing during the early morning hours.
We target the time frame of 6p to midnight for greatest storm coverage and the possibility of severe weather. While the greatest threat of severe is just south of the city, itself, I think all of central IN is in play for the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms tonight. In addition to locally heavy rain, stronger storms could pose a damaging straight line wind threat along with large hail.
A couple of storms may still fire Friday afternoon in the warm and humid air mass, but a boundary will pass Friday evening, allowing less humid air to arrive Saturday. On that note, even cooler and less humid air awaits early next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/31/steamy-thursday-ends-stormy/
May 30
VIDEO: Alberto’s Remnants Pull North; Strong Storms Thursday…
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May 18
More Unsettled Weekend Ahead And Closing Out May…
An upper level low pressure system will track northeast today into tonight, and as it does, look for more numerous showers and embedded thunder to develop. Some localized heavier downpours are a good bet this evening across central Indiana.
Otherwise, look for considerable cloudiness and highs topping out in the lower 70s today.
While we’ll have to contend with a few showers Saturday, overall, the day should be drier compared to today and what lies ahead Sunday. Speaking of Sunday, we’re monitoring the potential of a couple of storms reaching strong to severe levels to close the weekend. The Storm Prediction Center includes central portions of the state in a “marginal” risk of severe with their update Friday morning. It wouldn’t surprise us if a portion of the marginal risk is upgraded to a “slight” risk in future updates. We’ll fine tune storm timing over the next 24 hours.
As we look ahead to the end of May, there really aren’t any significant changes to the overall warmer than normal theme we’ve enjoyed so far this month. Longer range guidance off of the European ensemble continues to support broad scale upper ridging across the Mid West and Ohio Valley and a corresponding warmer than average regime. From a precipitation perspective, the next couple of weeks do look more active compared to the dry start to the month. Case in point, the balance of the upcoming week will be dominated by a stalled frontal boundary. While we’ll have to fine tune exactly where the front stalls, daily chances of showers and thunderstorms (scattered fashion) can be expected.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/18/more-unsettled-weekend-ahead-and-closing-out-may/
May 13
Still Warm, But Much More Active…
So far, May-to-date has run well above average in the temperature department (+8.5°) and below average from a precipitation perspective. While we’ll continue to run much warmer than normal through the second half of the month, we’ll begin to make up for “lost time” in the rainfall department, and that starts this week.
Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms are included in your latest 7-day and, at times, storm complexes will likely reach strong to severe levels as disturbances ride the periphery of an upper level ridge off to our south. It certainly won’t rain the entire time over the upcoming week and we’ll still enjoy more dry hours than wet and stormy. That said, for a region running around 1.5″ below average, the more active times will be a welcome sight for many. By next Sunday, we expect many area rain gauges to accumulate 1.5″ to 2.5″ of rain with locally heavier amounts.
Warmth will continue to dominate through the next couple of weeks.
For a change, above normal precipitation is expected over the upcoming week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/13/still-warm-but-much-more-active/
May 12
VIDEO: A More Active Pattern Awaits…
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May 09
VIDEO: Late Evening Update On Storms; Looking Ahead Into Next Week…
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May 09
Timing Out Storm Chances Tonight…
We continue to monitor things closely for the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms this evening into tonight. As of this morning, we still believe greatest threats of severe weather…
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May 08
Attention Shifts To Wednesday Evening…
The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Slight Risk of severe to encompass more of central Indiana as of the latest update:
Concern is on the increase for the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms to impact central parts of the state Wednesday evening and night. That said, there are questions with how quickly the atmosphere will be able to recover from morning cloudiness and scattered thundershowers.
Forecast radar shows scattered showers and embedded thunder scooting through the state Wednesday morning, especially between the hours of 9a and noon.
Current thinking leans towards a brightening sky through the mid and late afternoon hours which will help destabilize things for potentially a “more significant” event Wednesday evening and night (bracketing the hours of 6p to midnight from west to east).
We note the latest high resolution forecast radar guidance shows rather explosive development as we near the 6 o’clock hour.
Storms are expected to exit off to the east by midnight:
The primary concern that severe thunderstorms may deal central Indiana lies around damaging straight line winds and large hail, however, it should also be noted current parameters also suggest a couple of storms could spawn a tornado.
Bottom line, it’ll be important to keep close tabs on tomorrow’s forecast updates and ensure you have a means of receiving the latest information around watches and warnings that will likely come.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/08/attention-shifts-to-wednesday-evening/
May 03
VIDEO: Short-Term Update On Storms Moving In & Looking At The Weekend…
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