I. Significant heat wave builds from the Plains into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.
II. Heavy tropical downpours fall across the Southeast as a surface low meanders around the region early in the period.
Significant heat will bake the central Plains into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this week. Meanwhile, chilly conditions will persist across the Northwest. The Southeast will run slightly cooler than normal.
A wet pattern will develop this week across the Southeast region. Wetter than normal conditions will continue across the Northern Plains, as well. Dry conditions can be expected across the OHV and Great Lakes.
Unless you find yourself under an isolated strong storm, most of central Indiana can only expect between 0.10″ and 0.25″ of rain over the 7-day period.
Quiet conditions can be expected, locally, with respect to severe potential. That will be another story entirely across the Northern Plains over the next few days, however.
Forecast Period: 07.04.20 through 07.11.20
A relatively quiet period of weather can be expected across not only central Indiana, but all of the Ohio Valley over the upcoming 7-days as a strong ridge of high pressure dominates our region. This will lead to a significant and prolonged period of hot and increasingly humid conditions, including a consecutive stretch of 90° + highs to the likes of which we haven’t seen since the infamous summer of 2012. If planning time outdoors, build in frequent breaks. Overall dry conditions are also expected this week. The exception to this will be the opportunity of widely scattered storms developing in the prime heating hours (afternoon and evening each day). Count yourself lucky if you get under one of these storms. Unfortunately, some neighborhoods may go the entire week without a drop of rain.
Have a safe and happy Independence Day weekend, friends!
II. Persistent hot, muggy regime takes us into the holiday weekend.
Temperatures will run above to well-above normal from the Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast this week. The Rockies and points west can expect unusually chilly conditions.
Wetter than normal conditions are expected across the southwestern OH Valley into the TN Valley this week, along with the northern Rockies and New England.
We forecast 7-day rainfall totals for central IN to fall within the 1.75″ to 2.50″ range with locally heavier amounts.
In this pattern it won’t take much to have one or two storms pulse to severe levels, but widespread severe storms aren’t expected, locally. The biggest concern from any stronger storm that does form will be centered around damaging straight line winds.
Forecast Period: 06.28.20 through 07.05.20
A stationary frontal boundary will remain draped across the region until Tuesday night before getting a slight “nudge” off to the southwest Wednesday. The warm and humid pattern in place today will remain locked into the area straight through the holiday weekend (with a small break in humidity midweek). Periods of hefty thunderstorms can be expected- most numerous during the afternoon and evening hours. With such high moisture content in the air, locally heavy rainfall is expected at times. This “rinse and repeat” forecast will begin to change up by the holiday weekend as ridging builds overhead. While this won’t help us with the heat or humidity, this will reduce rain chances. Instead of scattered to numerous coverage, we’ll be talking about isolated coverage for the holiday weekend, itself. Most will stay dry. By this time frame, we’ll monitor the goings on to our south as a cut off low keeps the TN Valley into the Southeast region unsettled with more widespread storm coverage for the holiday weekend.
I. Unseasonably cool weather dominates the area to open the period with a late warming trend.
II. Widespread dry conditions persist through the upcoming week.
Between the cool pattern to open the period and warmth to end, temperatures will balance out very close to “average” for the period as a whole.
The forecast period will run much drier than normal from the Plains and points east. The one exception? Along the Carolina coast, thanks to a stalled cold front.
We’re only forecasting 0.10″ to 0.25″ over the upcoming 7-day period across central Indiana.
Forecast Period: 06.13.20 through 06.20.20
A very quiet weather pattern is ahead through the forecast period. A weak disturbance will move southeast this morning across the region. While northern parts of the state picked up measurable rainfall this morning, most of this will scoot east of immediate central Indiana. This system will also serve to reinforce the cool pattern in place into early parts of next week. In fact, overnight lows tonight will fall into the 40s as far south as central Indiana. Anyone else craving fall?! The pattern beyond will feature a warming trend along with continued dry weather. Heat and humidity will build in earnest late in the period along with an opportunity for scattered showers and thunderstorms next weekend ahead of an approaching cold front. Between now and then, enjoy the quiet conditions.
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II. Strong cold front delivers unseasonably cool close to the week
A warm open to the forecast period will transition much cooler to close the week. All-in-all, things will “balance out” close to average, locally.
Overall, it’s a dry pattern from the Plains into the East. The one exception? Where Cristobal’s remnants track and Northwest.
The heavy, tropical moisture associated with Cristobal is still expected to remain to our west. Wednesday will likely be our wettest day of the period which should feature 0.25″ to 0.75″ amounts over the upcoming 7-days.
Forecast Period: 06.06.20 through 06.13.20
Though it’ll still be a warm weekend, less humid air will be welcomed with open arms. Dry conditions will prevail through the weekend and as we open up the new work week, including plentiful sunshine. All eyes through the weekend will be on the Gulf of Mexico and Tropical Storm Cristobal. Cristobal will slowly strengthen over the next 24-36 hours before making landfall as a strong tropical storm along the southeast LA coastline. While we still don’t think we’ll be directly impacted by Cristobal’s remnants (those will track through the MS Valley and into the Upper Midwest), the fetch off the Gulf Coast directly ahead of a midweek cold front will lead to better chances of rain late Tuesday into Wednesday. That aforementioned cold front will be the first of two fronts to sweep the region before week’s end. The second front that blows through Friday will usher in a fall-like airmass next weekend.
Most of our Wednesday will be rain and storm free with a very warm and tropical feel. Don’t let this lull you in to letting your guard down as storms are expected to still erupt to our north late afternoon before rumbling south into central Indiana this evening.
The biggest concern with this storm complex will be centered on the threat of damaging straight line winds as embedded lines of storms may “bow out” on their journey south this evening. Additionally, large hail will also be possible with a few of the storms. As such, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to include the heart of the state (and the Ohio Valley for that matter) in a Slight Risk of severe weather today.
A good chunk of the region can expect 0.50″ to 1″ of rain this evening with locally heavier totals.
As we look ahead to the weekend, a front will sweep through the state and usher in a much less humid air mass Saturday night into early parts of next week. Sunday and Monday mornings should feature lows back into the upper 50s for most of central Indiana. Additionally, we’ll continue to keep close eyes on Tropical Storm Cristobal in the Gulf. There’s still the potential Cristobal’s remnant moisture will get entrained with an approaching cold front the middle to latter part of next week, leading to the threat of locally heavy rain across the MS Valley and parts of the Mid West and Ohio Valley. We’ll be able to become more specific as time draws closer.
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I. May ends and June opens with well below normal temperatures and humidity levels.
II. Summer pattern emerges during the 2nd half of next week, along with a return of hefty storms.
The upcoming 7-day period will be dominated by 2 distinct patterns: cool & refreshing (now through Tue.) and hot/ sticky (Wed. on). Overall, this will lead to a week that “averages out” close to normal.While the pattern looks dry overall (and certainly will be up until the middle of next week), there’s the potential of storm clusters diving in from the northwest and providing heavy rain late in the period.We’re actually more bullish on the precipitation front than what models currently portray. We’re going with a 7-day total between 1”-2” across central Indiana- most of which falls in the Wednesday-Friday time frame. The Storm Prediction Center doesn’t currently outline a threat of severe weather in the upcoming period. However, that may change as we get closer to the back half of the week.
Forecast Period: 05.30.20 through 06.06.20
Cool, Canadian high pressure will dominate our weekend weather, continuing into early parts of next week. Enjoy the refreshing air while we have it as an upper ridge will expand east, providing a return of warm to hot and muggy weather by the 2nd half of the forecast period. This transition will also be met with the opportunity of “ridge riding” thunderstorm clusters into the Ohio Valley by mid to late week. These clusters will potentially deliver severe wind and heavy rain and the overall threat will certainly warrant our attention as we move through the next couple of days.
