Category: Severe Weather

Gorgeous Open To The Work Week Gives Way To Cristobal Remnants Tuesday…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/08/gorgeous-open-to-the-work-week-gives-way-to-cristobal-remnants-tuesday/

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…

Weekly Highlights:

I. Cristobal’s remnant moisture

II. Strong cold front delivers unseasonably cool close to the week

A warm open to the forecast period will transition much cooler to close the week. All-in-all, things will “balance out” close to average, locally.
Overall, it’s a dry pattern from the Plains into the East. The one exception? Where Cristobal’s remnants track and Northwest.
The heavy, tropical moisture associated with Cristobal is still expected to remain to our west. Wednesday will likely be our wettest day of the period which should feature 0.25″ to 0.75″ amounts over the upcoming 7-days.

Forecast Period: 06.06.20 through 06.13.20

Though it’ll still be a warm weekend, less humid air will be welcomed with open arms. Dry conditions will prevail through the weekend and as we open up the new work week, including plentiful sunshine. All eyes through the weekend will be on the Gulf of Mexico and Tropical Storm Cristobal. Cristobal will slowly strengthen over the next 24-36 hours before making landfall as a strong tropical storm along the southeast LA coastline. While we still don’t think we’ll be directly impacted by Cristobal’s remnants (those will track through the MS Valley and into the Upper Midwest), the fetch off the Gulf Coast directly ahead of a midweek cold front will lead to better chances of rain late Tuesday into Wednesday. That aforementioned cold front will be the first of two fronts to sweep the region before week’s end. The second front that blows through Friday will usher in a fall-like airmass next weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/06/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-9/

Midweek Storms; Still Eyeing Less Humid Conditions This Weekend…

Most of our Wednesday will be rain and storm free with a very warm and tropical feel. Don’t let this lull you in to letting your guard down as storms are expected to still erupt to our north late afternoon before rumbling south into central Indiana this evening.

The biggest concern with this storm complex will be centered on the threat of damaging straight line winds as embedded lines of storms may “bow out” on their journey south this evening. Additionally, large hail will also be possible with a few of the storms. As such, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to include the heart of the state (and the Ohio Valley for that matter) in a Slight Risk of severe weather today.

A good chunk of the region can expect 0.50″ to 1″ of rain this evening with locally heavier totals.

As we look ahead to the weekend, a front will sweep through the state and usher in a much less humid air mass Saturday night into early parts of next week. Sunday and Monday mornings should feature lows back into the upper 50s for most of central Indiana. Additionally, we’ll continue to keep close eyes on Tropical Storm Cristobal in the Gulf. There’s still the potential Cristobal’s remnant moisture will get entrained with an approaching cold front the middle to latter part of next week, leading to the threat of locally heavy rain across the MS Valley and parts of the Mid West and Ohio Valley. We’ll be able to become more specific as time draws closer.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/03/midweek-storms-still-eyeing-less-humid-conditions-this-weekend/

VIDEO: Monitoring Storm Potential Wednesday; Updated Summer Thoughts…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/02/video-monitoring-storm-potential-wednesday-updated-summer-thoughts/

VIDEO: Things Turn More Active; Changeable Pattern…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/01/video-things-turn-more-active-changeable-pattern/

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…

Weekly Highlights:

I. May ends and June opens with well below normal temperatures and humidity levels.

II. Summer pattern emerges during the 2nd half of next week, along with a return of hefty storms.

The upcoming 7-day period will be dominated by 2 distinct patterns: cool & refreshing (now through Tue.) and hot/ sticky (Wed. on). Overall, this will lead to a week that “averages out” close to normal.
While the pattern looks dry overall (and certainly will be up until the middle of next week), there’s the potential of storm clusters diving in from the northwest and providing heavy rain late in the period.
We’re actually more bullish on the precipitation front than what models currently portray. We’re going with a 7-day total between 1”-2” across central Indiana- most of which falls in the Wednesday-Friday time frame.
The Storm Prediction Center doesn’t currently outline a threat of severe weather in the upcoming period. However, that may change as we get closer to the back half of the week.

Forecast Period: 05.30.20 through 06.06.20

Cool, Canadian high pressure will dominate our weekend weather, continuing into early parts of next week. Enjoy the refreshing air while we have it as an upper ridge will expand east, providing a return of warm to hot and muggy weather by the 2nd half of the forecast period. This transition will also be met with the opportunity of “ridge riding” thunderstorm clusters into the Ohio Valley by mid to late week. These clusters will potentially deliver severe wind and heavy rain and the overall threat will certainly warrant our attention as we move through the next couple of days.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/30/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-8/

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Outlook…

Weekly Highlights:

I. Summer-like pattern arrives for most just in time for the unofficial start to summer.

II. Cold front rumbles in late week with a better chance of organized storms and much cooler air for the weekend.

The upcoming 7-day period will feature above normal temperatures for a change overall. Keep in mind, the period will end cooler but warmth (and humidity) will be the headline for the majority of the week.
Overall, precipitation will run near normal levels for the period, primarily driven by “splash and dash” coverage of storms daily.
We are forecasting between 0.50” and 1” this week on a widespread basis. There will, however, be much higher amounts where slow moving storms track.

Forecast period: 05.24.20 through 05.31.20

The majority of this forecast period will feature a “rinse and repeat” forecast on a daily basis: warm to hot, humid, and daily chances of isolated to widely scattered thunder. The exception will be late week (centered on Friday) as a cold front drops in from the north. This will result in better coverage of thunderstorms along with much cooler air by next weekend (good bet lows fall into the upper 40s by next weekend). Looking ahead to early June looks to continue the “back and forth” theme as we welcome in meteorological summer.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/24/weekly-agwx-and-severe-outlook-8/

VIDEO: Rinse And Repeat; Warmth And Humidity On The Rise…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/23/video-rinse-and-repeat-warmth-and-humidity-on-the-rise/

VIDEO: Discussing The Severe/ Localized Flooding Threat Tonight And Looking Ahead To The Holiday Weekend…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/17/video-discussing-the-severe-localized-flooding-threat-tonight-and-looking-ahead-to-the-holiday-weekend/

Risk Of Rotating Storms This Evening-Tonight…

Quick short-term update this morning to discuss the potential of severe weather later this evening and into the nighttime hours. (We’ll have a more in-depth video update posted this evening, including longer range thoughts).

This morning has featured a few rain showers scattered about central Indiana, but the heavier, more organized, rain from the overnight is long gone (for now). While showers will impact central Indiana at times into the early afternoon hours, it’s not until late evening and the nighttime hours that we anticipate more organized shower and thunderstorm activity. Given the ingredients in place, there’s the potential of a few rotating storms tonight and subsequent risk of tornadoes. Sunshine, or not, it’ll be important to remain weather-aware tonight and have a means of getting the latest warnings that may be issued. Should we see a period of sunshine later this afternoon, the threat of severe weather will be elevated tonight.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) includes central and western portions of the state in a Slight Risk of severe weather in their most recent Day 1 Outlook.

The window of severe weather potential appears to come after 8p for central Indiana, continuing into the overnight hours.

Locally heavy rain will shift from western Indiana (tonight) into the eastern half of the state (Monday). Widespread 1″ to 2″ of additional rain is likely.

As the upper low “cuts off” early-mid week, shower chances will continue along with cooler temperatures.

Make it a great Sunday! Chat with y’all a bit later today!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/17/risk-of-rotating-storms-this-evening-tonight/

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