Category: Rain

Jan 19

Early Morning Freezing Rain For Some; Watching Sunday-Monday…

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Slick Spots For Some; Accumulating Late Weekend Snow?  A fast-moving disturbance will move through the region during the overnight/ wee morning hours and provide light rain for most of central Indiana, but areas just north of the city will deal with an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain (be watchful of slick spots if traveling north Tuesday morning).  Sunshine will make a quick return and “work” on our temperatures to help boost afternoon highs into the middle 40s (once again :-))!  Another fast-moving weather maker will arrive late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with mixed light rain and light snow.  Again, light is the key word.

Colder, but drier weather will build in for the midweek stretch.  The next weather item on the agenda will be a more vigorous clipper system that will slide southeast and result in increasing cloudiness Saturday night into Sunday morning followed by snow overspreading the region Sunday morning.  Accumulating snow is possible Sunday afternoon into Monday morning and will require fine tuning in the days ahead.  Precise track of the clipper system will determine where little, if any, snow falls and potentially several inches.  Stay tuned.  Regardless of the snow potential over the weekend, the stage is set for a MUCH colder time of things next week…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″ – 0.20″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 1″ – 3″

Longtime viewer and friend of IndyWx.com, Rick Ehrhardt, sent this fantastic Monday evening sunset from the Avon area.  Thanks, Rick!

B7v4kuoIUAECKCn

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/early-morning-freezing-rain-for-some-watching-sunday-monday/

Jan 19

Fast-Moving Weak Weather Systems…

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Challenging Northwest Flow…A series of fairly weak weather systems will scoot through the region through the first half of the week.  Each disturbance will be capable of depositing a quick round of light precipitation.  Timing will be the biggest issue at hand with the first couple weak disturbances.  We’ll forecast light rain (perhaps a wet snow flake or two) tonight into the wee morning hours Tuesday and again Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

A drier stretch of weather will arrive for the second half of the work week and early portions of the weekend.  We target Sunday evening as the next opportunity for accumulating snow followed by a push of colder air.  As of now, week 2 is looking unseasonably cold after seasonable to above average temperatures this week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.30″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 2″ – 3″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/fast-moving-weak-weather-systems/

Jan 17

Touching Base Saturday Afternoon…

Quick video update this afternoon to touch base.  Enjoy this amazing weather!

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Jan 14

Bitterly Cold Start, But Moderation On The Way…

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“Relaxation” Of The Bitterly Cold Pattern…That forecast package title sure wouldn’t suffice describing the weather outside this morning.  It’s a downright bitter feel, including below zero temperatures throughout north-central Indiana.  Patchy freezing fog and scattered flurries are also with us this morning.  With some sunshine later, we’ll “warm” into the lower 20s this afternoon.  A few flurries may fly tonight as a weak disturbance moves through the region.

Sunshine will be with us to wrap up the work week along with slowly moderating temperatures.  Average highs this time of the year are in the middle 30s so we’ll be closer to average Thursday and Friday- though it’ll likely feel much warmer simply based off just how cold it’s been as of late.  Gusty southwest winds will blow milder air in here briefly Saturday as temperatures climb into the middle 40s.

A cold front will sweep the state Sunday morning with a possible rain shower that’ll quickly transition to scattered snow showers as the colder air filters back into the region.  The next storm system of note arrives early next week.

Upcoming 7-day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: Dusting
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″ – 0.20″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/bitterly-cold-start-but-moderation-on-the-way/

Jan 12

Looking Ahead…

January is off to a colder than average start across a large portion of the country, including the Hoosier state:

ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anomThe snow and ice pack has expanded over the past couple of weeks in rather significant fashion:

nsm_depth_2015011205_National

Two storm systems have offered up busy times over the Ohio Valley the past week. Note liquid equivalent numbers the past (7) days- most significant over central Indiana.  Most of this has been in the form of wintry precipitation (snow and ice).

nws_precip_indy_7

A weak weather system may offer up light snow chances mid week.  The high resolution NAM and European print off light snow while other models “see” us mainly dry mid week.

hires_ref_indy_52

The other big story in the short term will be more bitterly cold arctic air (single digits tonight and close to zero Wednesday morning).

While we’ll certainly “warm” compared to the freezer we’ve been in the first two weeks of January, sneaky arctic highs remain on the field and will put a dent in the air masses from reaching unseasonably mild levels for any length of time this weekend and Week 2.  See Friday’s GFS output and the sneaky arctic high north:

gfs_ptype_slp_east_18

The next significant storm system brews around the 20th (give or take a day, or two) and could offer up rain or a more wintry option.  Keep a close eye on the period 01.20 – 01.23.

Thereafter, the arctic hounds likely come calling again as the period quickly returns to “lock and load” cold late January into February.  The European and GFS ensembles both show a rebuilding blocking AK ridge and suggest arctic air floods the country yet again as cross-polar flow gets involved:

GFSensembleslateJan

It’s all part of a package that should be the beginning of a colder than average and stormy mid and late winter stretch.  Sea surface temperature anomalies are a textbook setup for a very wintry time of things for our neck of the woods.  Note the Modoki El Nino and warm waters sitting off the PAC NW- both cold/ stormy indicators here:

SSTLateWinterSetUp

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/looking-ahead/