Category Archives: Rain

Snow Intensifies Again Early Afternoon; Turning Much Colder…

screen-shot-2017-01-05-at-9-24-44-amHighlights:

  • Snow intensifies for a period this afternoon
  • Bitterly cold weekend ahead
  • Moderating trend early next week

Snowy Thursday…Light snow developed during the predawn hours and made for a slick morning commute across central Indiana.   We note a steadier band of snow currently falling south of the city for places like Bedford, Columbus, and Seymour as of this update (9:30a).  As additional energy pushes across the state late morning into the afternoon, look for snow to expand in coverage and intensity for a time across more of central Indiana around lunchtime into the early afternoon before sliding off to the east.  Our ongoing snowfall forecast remains unchanged:

1517snowfallmap

Conditions will remain bitterly cold (most of today is spent in the 10s), and with even the slightest bit of snow cover, conditions will turn even more frigid to end the week.  Area-wide single digits can be expected to begin the day Friday (Saturday and Sunday, as well) with wind chills below zero.  Dry conditions return this weekend.  We’ll watch as our friends to the south enjoy a winter storm from Alabama, northern GA, into the Carolinas.

Moderating temperatures return early next week and as the warm advection begins Monday, it could help produce a wintry mix by evening before precipitation transitions to rain Tuesday, along with a breezy SW wind.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.00″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Forecast, Rain, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Bitterly Cold Air Returns…

screen-shot-2017-01-03-at-4-31-46-pmHighlights:

  • Turning much colder tonight
  • Light snow Thursday
  • Bitterly cold, but dry weekend

The Ice Box Returns…An arctic cold front will sweep through the state tonight and help usher in a drastically colder feel as we progress through the middle and latter parts of the week.  Left over rain showers this evening may end as a couple of snow flurries before precipitation comes to an end.  Winds will really increase tonight behind the cold front, gusting between 30 and 40 MPH.  This will lead to single digit wind chill values out the door Wednesday morning.

Our next weather disturbance arrives Thursday morning and will help spread light snow across the southern half of the state.  Snow will continue into the early afternoon before departing off to the east.  Light accumulations (around 1″) will be possible, especially from Indianapolis and points south.  We’ll keep an eye on fresh data coming into the forecast office tonight and update if need be.

Otherwise, the big story going into the weekend will be the return of bitterly cold air.  In fact, overnight lows will drop into the single digits Saturday and Sunday mornings.  Dress warmly if you have plans to be outside for any length of time.

Our air flow will back around to the southwest early next week and temperatures will begin to moderate.  Moisture may make it to the surface to create a little spotty freezing drizzle Monday evening before temperatures sky-rocket to around 50 Tuesday as showers return.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1.00″
  • Rainfall:  0.25″ – 0.50″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Forecast, Freezing Rain, Rain, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Windy

Turning Colder After A Wet Open To The Week…

screen-shot-2017-01-01-at-7-25-02-pmHighlights:

  • Unsettled open to the week
  • Turning colder Tuesday
  • Couple snow chances, but low confidence

Wet Open To The Week…Clouds waited to increase until after sunset Sunday and the more than expected sunshine led to a downright beauty of a kickoff to 2017, complete with mild temperatures.  Unfortunately, those pleasant conditions won’t last as we deal with increasing coverage of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm Monday.  Rain coverage appears greatest during the evening into the nighttime hours.

An arctic cold front will sweep through the state Tuesday afternoon and lead to a dramatic temperature plunge for the rest of the week.  Showers Tuesday will end as a touch of wet snow before precipitation moves out.

Forecast models are still struggling with handling Pacific energy for mid and late week.  This is leading to a lower than normal confidence level with two potential systems Thursday and again Saturday.  For now, we’re eyeing the threat of light snow with both and believe modeling will come around to more of a weather maker once time draws closer.  Stay tuned.  Cold weather remains as we progress through next weekend.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Forecast, Rain, snow, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Busy 7-Day To Usher In 2017…

screen-shot-2016-12-30-at-7-18-25-pmHighlights:

  • Raw New Year’s Eve
  • Briefly milder Monday with showers
  • Snow prospects mid week

Busy Times…Clouds will increase late tonight and give way to showers during the daytime New Year’s Eve.  Most of this shower activity will be light, but you’ll want to carry the rain gear with you as you leave for New Year’s Eve parties and celebrations throughout central IN.  Once to the nighttime hours, showers should diminish and most of the nighttime should feature rain-free conditions, along with colder temperatures.

New Year’s Day may start out with some sunshine, but clouds will increase through the day and drizzle or light rain is possible by evening.  Low pressure will track northeast from the central Plains into the upper Mid West Monday.  This will place Indiana in a relatively warm southwest flow.  Periods of showers can be expected through the day, along with breezy conditions.  An accompanying cold front will sweep through the state early Tuesday morning and shut rain chances off, shift winds to the northwest, and lead to falling temperatures.

Wednesday will be a day in between storm systems.  Cold high pressure will settle into the Ohio Valley and supply unseasonably chilly temperatures, but with sunshine.

Our next storm system will approach Thursday.  Clouds will increase Wednesday night and give way to an expanding snow shield during the day Thursday.  We still have a few days to look at things, but from this distance, the potential is present for an impactful wintry event across a widespread portion of the Ohio Valley, including central Indiana.  Stay tuned.  Fresh arctic air will move in to put a close on yet another short work week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

Snowfall: 1″ – 3″

Rainfall:  0.75″ – 1.25″

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Forecast, Rain, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Windy

Snow Squalls Thursday Evening; Active Pattern…

screen-shot-2016-12-28-at-10-18-11-amHighlights:

  • Showers this evening
  • Snow squalls develop Thursday evening
  • Active weather pattern into next week

Early Sun Gives Way To Showers By Evening…A sunny, frosty start to the day will give way to an increasingly cloudy sky by afternoon and scattered showers by evening.  Latest data suggests showers arrive into central Indiana by 6-7p.  This won’t be a significant rain maker, but just enough to create damp conditions as we put a wrap on Wednesday.

A reinforcing push of cold air will blow through Thursday evening.  With enough instability and upper air energy, scattered heavy snow squalls will become likely across the region by afternoon into the evening.  This won’t be a “uniform” snow event, but some localized accumulation (thinking a coating to less than 1″ in spots), along with dramatic drops in visibility can be expected by evening as these scattered snow squalls increase in coverage.  Additionally, winds will gust to 40 MPH and will aid in creating hazardous travel at times tomorrow PM.  Scattered snow showers will continue into the day Friday.

Moving forward, we continue to eye the potential of a light wintry mix arriving on New Year’s Eve.  As of now, this doesn’t appear to be a big deal, but we’ll monitor things as new data streams in.  “Light” is the key word for now and temperatures look marginal, at best, for wintry issues.

As we rumble into next week, model consistency and overall agreement is rather non-existent.  This leads to a lower than normal confidence on the important details in regards to the early week storm system (and looking forward, towards a second storm coming along just beyond the current forecast period).  For now we’ll go with showers Monday afternoon paving way to more widespread rain Tuesday.  As colder air rushes in Tuesday night, precipitation will change to snow along with a strengthening northwest wind and an increasingly bitter feel by the middle of next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 2″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Rain, snow, Windy