Category Archives: Rain

Word On The Weeklies…

New JMA Weeklies stream in on Thursday mornings and we send out a Thursday morning report, in detail, to our clients dissecting the latest data, but want to try and start making public comments on the model here, as well.

The overall idea after looking at the JMA Weeklies is wet and warm over the upcoming (4) weeks relative to average. That said, there will be periods of drier times, especially Week 1, and late season chill- as can be expected every April.

Week 1:

Week 2:

Weeks 3-4:

The big picture is one that shows a drier pattern developing across the East during Week 1, but we caution that this drier regime doesn’t look to “lock” in.  Data suggests we get back to an active pattern between Week’s 2-4, biased wetter than normal in the Mid West and Plains.  The other screaming message is that a busy severe season should continue through the period.  Cold sets up across the Pacific Northwest, associated with the “mean” trough position, while spring-like warmth continues to build across our region in overall terms.  We know what that means as storms eject off the Rockies and track east…

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Ugly Close To The Work Week Gives Way To A Gorgeous Weekend…

Today certainly won’t be a “chamber of commerce” like day across central Indiana as we deal with numerous mixed rain and snow showers.  Already this morning, reports of wet snow are coming in to the forecast office from Whitestown, Lebanon, and Crawfordsville.

We’ll also add wind into the mix late morning through early evening, including gusts around 50 MPH.  Factor in the much colder temperatures with gusty northerly winds and you have the makings for a truly “raw” day across the region.  The National Weather Service has issued a Wind Advisory until 8pm.

We should finally get rid of the precipitation later tonight and after a chilly Friday, weekend improvements are coming.  Lows both Friday and Saturday morning will be around freezing for most central Indiana neighborhoods.  After a cloudy start Friday, sunshine should return Friday afternoon as drier air works into the region.  With high pressure arriving this weekend, sunny conditions can be expected and with a southwest wind developing by Saturday afternoon, moderating temperatures are on deck as well.

In fact, after that cold start Saturday, highs should climb into the lower 60s Saturday afternoon and all the way into the lower to middle 70s Sunday afternoon!

Our next storm system will push into the Ohio Valley early next week with scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday.

No Comments Forecast, Forecast Models, Rain, snow, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Windy

Wednesday: Potential Of A Busy Severe Weather Day…

Highlights:

  • Stormy Wednesday
  • Snow mixes with rain Thursday
  • Gorgeous weekend upcoming
  • Busy times return next week

Remain Weather-Aware…Chilly, dry weather will continue this evening before showers and thunderstorms (non-severe) approach the western Indiana state line overnight and early Wednesday.  Initially, showers and thunderstorms will impact western and northwestern portions of the state before all of central Indiana gets into the act by the afternoon hours.  We continue to be concerned for the potential of an active severe weather day across the southern half of the state.  All modes of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes.  As of this update (late Tuesday night), the greatest risk area appears to lie within areas from Indianapolis and points south and southeast.  We’re most concerned for the period 2p-8p and will fine tune things early Wednesday if needed.  Please remain weather-aware and have a means of getting the latest warnings.

We’ll shift gears rather abruptly from severe to more of a wintry feel to close the work week.  Much colder air will spill into central Indiana Wednesday night and Thursday and leftover, wraparound, moisture will begin mixing with wet snowflakes Thursday afternoon and evening.  Gusty northwest winds and the unseasonably chilly air will result in a downright ugly, raw day.

After early morning snowflakes Friday, drier air will begin to work into the region and result in increasing sunshine Friday afternoon.  This will be a prelude to a gorgeous weekend:  After a cold start Saturday, expect lots of sunshine and moderating afternoon temperatures.  The warming trend continues Sunday as we top the 70° mark.

Our next storm approaches early next week.  Clouds increase Sunday night and give way to showers and thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday.  Questions come into play in regards to timing with this next cold front, but thinking (as of now) only slowly moves the front along, keeping unsettled weather in our forecast early week before a much cooler, drier period of weather by midweek.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 2.00″ – 2.50″
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Topsy-Turvy Forecast…

Highlights:

  • Strong-severe thunderstorm potential Wednesday
  • Turning colder to close the week with snow showers
  • Beautiful weekend ahead

Changeable Weather…The region will be in between storm systems Tuesday.  We think clouds will hang tough and the storms from overnight will move off to the east.  In place, scattered showers will dot the north-central Indiana landscape especially through the morning hours.

A new storm system will take aim on the region Wednesday and strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible.  Many questions remain in regards to instability, but shear will be plentiful and we’ll have to keep a close eye on future developments over the next 24-36 hours.  Stay tuned.  From this distance, conditions seem favorable for super cells to develop especially across southern Indiana.  We’ll transition from storms to more of a wintry-like feel Thursday and Friday and continue to think the air will grow cold enough to support mention of wet snowflakes mixing with the rain by Thursday evening into Friday morning.

As we flip the page into the weekend, high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley and support increasingly sunny conditions.  After a cold and frosty start Saturday morning, temperatures will rebound nicely under that strong early-April sunshine.

Our next storm system won’t begin to impact the region until Sunday afternoon (increasing southwest winds) and Monday (scattered showers and thunderstorms).

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 2.00″ – 2.25″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Rain, snow, Spring, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Windy

Monday Morning Rambles…

1.)  Showers moved through the region early this morning and we’ll go through several dry hours before dealing with our next round of rain and thunderstorms by evening.  Most widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms appears to come in the 5p-7p range.

2.)  We’ll get a breather on Tuesday, but our next storm system will move in quickly and begin impacting central Indiana during the day Wednesday.  A couple strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and will require our attention over the next day, or so.  We’ll have more details with our updated 7-day later today.

3.)  We’ll get into the colder side of the storm to close the work week and thoughts will shift from storms to snow.  Wind-whipped snow showers will be a good bet in the unseasonably cold air Thursday into Friday morning.

4.)  Timing will once again be our friend as we push into the weekend.  Weak high pressure will arrive on the scene and help ensure dry conditions.  After a cold start Saturday, a moderating trend will develop.

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