Category Archives: Rain

Developing Hot Pattern Doesn’t Last; Cooler And Wetter Times Loom…

Through the short-term, there are two words that will sum up Indiana’s weather: Dry and Hot.  We’re entering a stretch where the overall weather pattern will promote an expanding hot dome in the coming days, and put many communities across the state solidly in position to break the 90° mark on multiple days.

Expanding upper ridge means hot times loom late weekend into early next week.

However, this increasingly hot and dry pattern will be a transient one.  This morning’s European model shows the evolution to cooler and increasingly wet, unsettled times nicely as we progress into the 6-10 day period.

The GFS ensemble would also agree in the overall pattern shift back to cooler and unsettled conditions as early as mid-late next week.

The 10-day GEFS ‘mean’ is a beautiful sight as moisture returns.

Updated 7-day out later this afternoon!  Enjoy a beautiful Saturday, friends!

No Comments 10-day, AG Report, European Model, Forecast Discussion, GFS, Rain, Summer, Unseasonably Warm

Another Pleasant Day Then It’s Time To Sweat…

Highlights:

  • Another pleasant day ahead!
  • Dry weather continues.
  • The heat is on!

Dry Weather Continues; Summer Feel Develops…We’ll enjoy one more very pleasant and refreshing day Thursday, including plentiful sunshine, low humidity, and below normal temperatures.  Many central Indiana neighborhoods will begin the day in the mid to upper 40s away from the city.  Enjoy the pleasant weather while we’ve got it!

As we progress into the weekend, temperatures and humidity will begin to increase.  By this time next week, overnight lows will be closer to today’s official (IND) high of 72°.  One word: YUCK.

A couple of showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon, but most, if not all, of these look to remain confined to the northern third of the state.  That’s the only chance of moisture until we rumble into the middle of next week.  In addition to the continued bone dry conditions, unseasonably hot weather will build in over the Mid West and result in highs of 90°, or higher, Sunday into early next week.

Looking into the longer range, a more active and increasingly wet regime looks to return just past mid-month.  While the early season heat and dry weather will be significant, thankfully it doesn’t look like it’ll last…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Dry Times Remain: Briefly Cooler Then The Heat Is On…

Our overall weather pattern will be dominated by short-term cooling, significant warming by the weekend, and dry times continuing.

We’re noticing a significant change to the brand of our air mass this evening as a northerly wind is taking hold and helping to usher in lower dew points.  This is only the beginning of a significantly cooler stretch of weather that will take us through the day Tuesday, continuing into Thursday.  While the upper level low will drift south into the Northeast, our region will be dominated by a northerly flow and a much cooler, refreshing air mass into the latter portions of the work week.

In fact, we forecast highs Wednesday to only top the upper 60s, and this will be a good 10°-15° below average for June 7th.  Lows each morning through Friday will start out in the lower-middle 50s for the city, itself, but some outlying neighborhoods will fall deep into the 40s.  Very refreshing, indeed, for early June!

High pressure will dominate our weather through late week, continuing the overall drier than normal theme.

Models slowly begin to increase moisture levels as we move into the weekend and an isolated shower or thunderstorm could develop, but widespread rains of significance aren’t anticipated for the foreseeable future.

The bigger story by the weekend will be a developing hot weather pattern.  Temperatures will be flirting with the 90° mark as early as Sunday and Monday.  Instead of running 10°-15° below normal such as midweek, temperatures by early next week will be running 5°-10° above normal and very much like the “heart” of summer.

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, Summer, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Drier Trend Continues This Weekend…

Highlights:

  • Dry close to the work week
  • Mostly dry weekend
  • Slightly cooler next week

Models Continue To Trend Drier…It was only a couple days ago that models were suggesting the threat of heavy rain and scattered strong storms this weekend- beginning Friday.  In this business, it doesn’t take long for things to change sometimes, but this is the first legitimate change for the “drier” that we’ve seen with storm systems since winter.  Time and time again as we draw closer to events, modeling has had to play “catch up” for the wetter over the past few months.

The end result is one that will feature a mostly dry weekend, including only isolated storm coverage Saturday afternoon and evening (most stay dry) and scattered coverage Sunday.  As a whole, many more dry hours are expected this weekend than stormy.

The other big takeaway over the past few days is the cool bias models have had.  This is noted and documented and we’re adjusting our forecast accordingly moving forward.  Drier and cooler air will arrive after Monday showers, but temperatures won’t run nearly as cool as once projected.  For the second week in a row, very pleasant and refreshing weather is ahead for the middle of the week.  Not bad, at all, by June standards.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm