Mar 11
Updated 03.11.24 @ 7:51a It’s more of the same this week as unseasonably warm temperatures dominate the headlines. We’ll turn unsettled by late week and this will signal a pattern…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-warm-times-this-week-give-way-to-a-colder-pattern-unsettled-late-week-and-potential-of-snow-by-early-next-week/
Mar 09
Updated 03.09.24 8:14a
It’s been a very warm March. So far, Indianapolis is running nearly 13° above the average month-to-date.
In the short-term (Week 1), the pattern will remain on the milder side of normal.
That all begins to change as we move into Week 2.
This is largely driven by the MJO sprinting through the traditionally warm phases for this time of year into the colder Phase 8 late month.
The temperature composite analog for MJO Phase 8 in March during an El Nino season:
Strikingly similar to what we see above on the Week 2 charts, huh?
The teleconnection suite aligns towards a cold look by Week 2.
A potentially more significant storm system looms late next week or over St. Patrick’s Day weekend to usher in the pattern change. Otherwise, with a colder pattern than normal settling in Week 2, this will also likely lead to a drier airmass and subsequent opportunity to dry out after a wetter than normal open to March (also of note is that we’re running a little more than 1″ above normal, year-to-date).
No way to be specific with details from this distance, but given the look to the overall pattern, I’d be surprised if we end the month without an opportunity of a little wet snow with the colder transition.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-report-period-opens-with-more-of-the-same-but-cooler-than-normal-for-a-change-late-month/
Mar 08
Updated 03.08.24 @ 7:50a “Showery” weather through the early to mid afternoon will give way to an increasingly heavier rain by evening, continuing through the overnight. This is all thanks…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-rain-increases-in-intensity-by-evening-mjo-influences-on-the-longer-range/
Mar 05
Updated 03.05.24 @ 7:53a
We’ve had a few storms north of the city, itself, early this morning, but for the bulk of the I-70 corridor, things are just now starting to get “busy.” Anticipate rain and storm coverage to continue to expand and grow heavier through the late morning into early afternoon before diminishing.
Rainfall totals of 0.25” to 0.75” will be most common with a few localized 1”+ reports. Rain and storm coverage will diminish through the afternoon and evening hours across the region.
High pressure will briefly build into the region midweek, allowing for drying skies and pleasant early-March conditions. Enjoy, as another storm system will deliver a round of rain and embedded thunder Friday PM and Saturday.
We turn briefly colder Sunday (and windy) but by Monday, the next warm-up is already scheduled to be well underway. This is just another instance of a brief chilly blast without any legs.
Speaking of cold, while there does remain a window of opportunity for a below normal regime to develop very late March and early April (if we can finally get the MJO to slide over into the colder phases), the short to medium term is still void of any sort of chill, at least for more than a day or 2 behind passing storms. Note the Week 2 ensemble data is still much warmer than normal for our neck of the woods. – A direct byproduct of the MJO rumbling through those classic warm phases.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/storms-become-more-widespread-through-the-morning-another-storm-system-arrives-late-week-still-no-sign-of-a-flip-to-colder/
Mar 03
Updated 03.03.24 @ 8:19a
A gorgeous Sunday is on deck with highs rising into the 60s and near 70° west. Enjoy that sunshine while we’ve got it!
Dry conditions should prevail through the daytime hours Monday before showers and embedded thunder roll into town overnight and Tuesday morning. Unsettled conditions will hold through the day Tuesday.
Rainfall totals of 0.25” to 0.75” will be common by Tuesday night across the region.
The next low pressure system and associated frontal boundary will impact us Friday into Saturday. Look for a more widespread, heavier round of precipitation with this particular system as we close the work week.
Despite cooler shots of air flowing in briefly behind frontal passages, there’s no sustained below normal temperature regime on the horizon, and for good reason with this kind of MJO:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/sunday-morning-rambles-tracking-2-systems-this-week-and-more-unseasonably-warm-conditions-ahead/