Dec 05
Updated 12.05.23 @ 6:23a Novelty flakes for some and a cold light rain for others will give way to briefly cooler air as we go into tonight and Wednesday morning…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/05/video-topsy-turvy-ride-into-early-next-week/
Dec 04
Updated 12.04.23 @ 5:21p
1.) Our clipper system is still on track to deliver a wintry mix of a cold rain and wet snow to central Indiana during the predawn hours Tuesday, continuing into the mid and late morning. We don’t have any changes from this morning’s video update. Thinking is that this is primarily a wet snow event from in and around Indianapolis and points north, including the potential of a coating to a dusting of snow in/ around the city with 0.50″ to 1″ type accumulation of wet snow across north-central Indiana (including northern Indy ‘burbs, such as Whitestown, Zionsville, Westfield, Carmel, and Fishers). Pavement issues aren’t anticipated due to the marginally cold temperatures in place and recent mild air, but slushy accumulation on grassy and elevated surfaces is likely in the areas mentioned above.
Most of the “system” precipitation should be out of here by lunchtime with a chance of a few scattered snow showers returning to north-central Indiana and into Indianapolis Wednesday morning with the weak cold air advection (CAA).
2.) After a seasonably chilly midweek, temperatures will “zoom” into the 50s and even approach 60 before we close the work week out. This is in response to an aggressive southwesterly air flow ahead of an approaching and strengthening surface low pressure system that already has the weather community “buzzin'” several days in advance. While the pattern is conducive for a rapidly deepening area of low pressure advancing from the Ark-la-tex region northeast across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, there are still many more questions than answers before we can provide anything concrete with respect to p-type, including potential snow numbers.
The hesitancy in leaning in stronger to this event from a winter perspective, locally, is the lack of cold air available to tap into. That’s not to say this storm will have to generate all of the cold on its own, but we’ll have to have a rapid strengthener to help aid in the cold production if anything meaningful is to transpire on the winter front. All of that said, it’s safe to say that a widespread, wind-whipped precipitation event is becoming increasingly likely this weekend. While the initial lean is still mostly “wet vs. white” for central Indiana, we’ll be watching trends very carefully.
3.) With each passing day, we receive more questions on the weather pattern around the holidays, and understandably so. The key to a sizable shift to more sustained cold and winter weather opportunities lies squarely on the MJO, in our opinion. I’ll include the image we posted here last week below showing the overall MJO evolution into the 2nd half of December. It’s certainly not unreasonable to think that the progression into the colder phases should happen when you extrapolate this out.
Long story short, we have no changes in our idea of a colder shift taking place with the overall pattern around (give or take a day or 2) 12/20.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/04/dinnertime-rambles-talking-snow-weekend-storm-and-holiday-pattern/
Dec 02
Updated 12.02.23 @ 7:42a We’re going to be socked in with considerable cloudiness this weekend, but these clouds will have more bark than bite. A few showers will scoot through…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/02/video-nickle-and-diming-our-way-into-the-new-work-week-temperatures-climb-late-next-week/
Dec 01
Updated 12.01.23 @ 7:44a
Though far from a blowtorch, the pattern over the next couple weeks (1st half of December) will feature milder than normal temperatures.
The pattern drivers, starting first and foremost with the MJO (more on the impacts late December in a moment), suggest milder than normal times should hold through the first half of December overall.
The EPO is also forecast predominantly positive with an erratic PNA pattern. Bottom line, all combined, this should promote an overall mild open to the month with a lack of any sort of significant winter weather threats.
The period opens wet and finishes (mid-month) that way with dryness in between.
Focusing in more on the MJO helps illustrate the story we’re telling not only over the next couple weeks, but into early 2024.
We’re currently in the warmest phases of the MJO this time of year (3, 4, and 5 in particular), but things start to change once to Phase 6 and beyond.
Many times, cold, arctic air begins to build on our side of the pole in Phase 6 and then busts loose in Phases 7 and 8. I think that’s on the table for us this year given where it appears the MJO wants to head and this is backed by long range teleconnection charts (namely the EPO and PNA) seemingly wanting to also head into the traditional colder phases, respectively.
This image will show the progression and corresponding upper level pattern nicely.
To close, while the first half of the month doesn’t appear to be overly kind to winter weather enthusiasts, it continues to look like the combination of the MJO, EPO, and PNA are aligning in a manner that will deliver more of a wholesale pattern change to colder than normal times past mid month and especially after the 20th. By that timeframe, we’ll have to start monitoring storm systems to potentially have a more wintry theme to them.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/01/lr-update-things-progressing-as-planned-cold-pattern-looming-for-the-holidays-and-into-early-24/
Nov 30
Updated 11.30.23 @ 7:44a Clouds will increase through the afternoon and give way to light rain by evening. That rain will grow more widespread and heavier in nature as we…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/30/video-wet-weather-returns-setting-the-stage-for-the-holiday-pattern/
Nov 29
Updated 11.29.23 @ 7:33a Our airmass will undergo quite the change over the next 24 hours. The early season taste of arctic air will be replaced with a milder (but…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/29/video-milder-but-wetter-shift-in-the-pattern-long-range-rumblings/
Nov 20
Updated 11.20.23 @ 5:30p
I. The weather pattern will turn progressively colder as we move through the Thanksgiving holiday. This isn’t anything earth-shattering by any stretch, but temperatures running 4° to 8° below normal is pretty stout. There’s also still the potential of an early season arctic “jab” prior to us getting out of the first 3-5 days of December, but that likely comes after this weekend- if at all.
As a whole, it’s a dry pattern that will accompany the chill, but we will want to continue keeping an eye on energy that will eject off the Rockies over the weekend. At times models can underplay these features only to have to correct stronger as we grow closer to the potential event. Will that be the case this time? Impossible to say from this distance- just something we’ll continue to monitor with such a busy travel period. As it is today, modeling wants to “string” the energy out which would essentially be a light or non-event.
II. While the pattern drivers all are aligned for a cold open (first few days) of December, there’s reason to believe a period of milder than normal air will take foot just after- say sometime between 12/5 and 12/8, or so. That said, we’re in a bit of a fork in the road so to speak.
The East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) is going to pop positive at least for a period of time prior to mid-December. This strongly argues for a relaxation of the cold regime that we’ll endure to open the month. Guidance differs on the handling of the MJO, however. Should the American guidance be correct in taking things into Phase 4, when combined with what we see transpiring with the EPO, then we’re off to the races for at least a 7-10 day period of much warmer than normal temperatures. That said, European guidance collapses the MJO into the “null” phase and even hints at things emerging again in the colder phases come mid December. While we still have time to sort through this “mess,” the idea here is that the cold open to the month will moderate to slightly to moderately above normal for a 7-10 day period leading us into mid-month. Thereafter, I’m becoming increasingly bullish for a renewed cold pattern developing towards the Christmas and New Years holidays…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/20/dinnertime-rambles-talking-thanksgiving-weekend-and-early-december/
Nov 18
Updated 11.18.23 @ 10:20a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/18/video-pre-thanksgiving-day-storm-and-a-cold-close-to-november/
Nov 17
Updated 11.17.23 @ 11a
The stars are all aligning to drive a significant shift in the overall regime towards one that should yield cooler (and, at times, colder) than normal temperatures as we navigate the back half of the month.
First, we have the MJO. Note how we’re set to slide into Phases 1 and 2 between now and end of the month.
These are progressively cold phases this time of year. Phase 1 has residual warmth across the Northeast (more seasonable here on the home front) before Phase 2 becomes overwhelmingly cold.
We then have the combo of the negative EPO and positive PNA. Both cold signals for our neck of the woods.
It’s no wonder model guidance is jumping on the persistent eastern trough to close out the month.
At some point in the 8-12 day period, I’d anticipate a true dislodge of true early season arctic air to get involved in the pattern. Think lows into the upper 10s, lower 20s and highs in the 30s. Still far too early to get specific with snow chances, but they will come before month’s end.
Stay tuned…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/17/more-on-the-cold-close-to-november/
Nov 12
Updated 11.12.23 @ 11:13a
As quiet as this week will be, overall, it continues to look like Thanksgiving week won’t provide the same fortune. As mentioned yesterday, there’s no reason to waste time describing the day to day “rinse and repeat” regime up until Thursday. That’s when a frontal boundary will sweep through the Ohio Valley with gusty winds (30-40 MPH) and an opportunity of showers Thursday night into Friday. Moisture return continues to look unimpressive. Best chances of measurable rain (0.10” – 0.25”) will come from Indianapolis and points east during this timeframe.
The next couple weeks will run milder to much milder than normal.
Week 1
Week 2
The quiet week we will enjoy this week will be replaced with a much more active time of things in the days leading up to Thanksgiving. Look for a potentially potent and large scale storm system impacting our weather with rain and gusty winds early to mid next week. Note the significant change between Week 1 and Week 2 precipitation below. More details to come as we go through this week.
We watch the EPO trends closely for the threat of potentially colder changes longer term.
Until the PNA and MJO follow suit, “tread with caution” on any wholesale big colder shifts. All in all, this predominant regime should hold firm into the 1st half of December.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/12/sunday-morning-rambles-thanksgiving-week-continues-to-trend-active/