Category: MJO

Nov 09

LR Update: Thanksgiving And Early December…

Updated 11.09.23 @ 10:49a

With Thanksgiving only 2 weeks from today (incredibly hard to believe), we’re able to start to get a better idea on the overall weather pattern as the “official” kickoff to the holiday season nears. The first point we want to drive home is that we should begin to see a much more active regime evolve during this 2 week period. From a temperature perspective, the pattern overall continues to look milder than average, but there will be a couple opportunities for transient pops of colder air, potentially around the all-important Thanksgiving holiday, itself.

Note how modeling sees the more active pattern evolving over the next 3-4 weeks (green represents above normal precipitation). – A significant change not only for our neck of the woods but certainly for our friends and neighbors down south (badly needed for a region suffering an expanding drought. Speaking of which, all of the dry/ droughty southern tier should reverse in significant fashion as the active Nino storm track gets going over the coming months. As the pattern continues to evolve into the ‘24 spring and summer, the south-central severe drought will be erased.

Despite attempts of troughs to roll into the Ohio Valley, they will struggle with staying power over the next 3-4 weeks. The latest JMA Weekly product and Euro/ GFS ensemble blend looks very solid given where the pattern drivers currently reside.

Week 1

Week 2

Weeks 3-4

The pattern drivers of a primarily positive EPO, negative PNA, and MJO in 8/1 (all unchanged from our post earlier this week) all suggest a predominant eastern ridge, western trough placement over the upcoming 2-3 weeks.

We’ll continue to keep close tabs on the regime, especially centered on 11/22 – 11/26.

Make it a great Thursday!

Side note: Confidence is increasing that this Nino will evolve into a central-based event which will up the chances of colder/ snowier prospects come late December and on into January. More on that later next week in a more extensive update specific to this transition.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/09/lr-update-thanksgiving-and-early-december/

Nov 07

An Overall Warm Ride Into The Thanksgiving Holiday; Any Changes On The Horizon?

Updated 11.07.23 @ 5:15a

Despite a weekend setback that will continue into the early portion of Week 2, updated forecast model data continues to scream that we’ll run above to well above normal as the Thanksgiving holiday nears.

The pattern drivers support the warmer than normal call over the next couple of days. Note the primarily positive EPO and negative PNA.

This should help keep the ‘mean’ ridge position across the upper Mid West and Great Lakes over the next couple of weeks.

We’ll keep close eyes on the negative trend of that EPO towards the end of the period (image 1 above) to see if it continues in the coming days. If so, there’s the potential we could pull the anticipated western trough east in perhaps a bit quicker fashion than models currently see (say the last week of November, potentially).

As it is, another big pattern driver, the Madden-Julian Oscillation will begin to rev up in the coming days. A circle through Phase 7/8 this time of year supports the warm signals shown from the PNA and EPO.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/07/an-overall-warm-ride-into-the-thanksgiving-holiday-any-changes-on-the-horizon/

Oct 12

LR Update: Checking In On The Pattern Drivers To Close October…

Updated 10.12.23 @ 10:50a

As we roll into the second half of October, a look at the primary pattern drivers suggests there should be a lack of any sort of sustained above normal temperatures.

The PNA (image 1) should remain mostly in a positive state over the next couple weeks while the EPO (image 2) is expected to be in a neutral to negative state.

Furthermore, the MJO is forecast to sneak into Phase 1 late month. This is the correlation in October:

It’s hard to find much at fault with the NEW JMA Weeklies posted earlier today.

Temperatures

Week 1

Week 2

Weeks 3-4

Precipitation should run average to slightly below normal over the span of the upcoming (2) weeks:

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/12/lr-update-checking-in-on-the-pattern-drivers-to-close-october/

Sep 22

Long Range Outlook Into October: Reason To Be Suspicious Of The Warm Look…

Updated 09.22.23 @ 10:41a

The pattern over the next 10 days will continue the same warmer than normal theme we’ve grown accustomed to as of late. Keep in mind that “normals” have now fallen into the lower to middle 70s for highs and lower 50s at night. Certainly far from a “blow torch,” but temperatures will run 5° to 10° above the norm as we put a bow on September.

Short-term rain chances will be handled in our daily videos. Guidance continues to differ widely on our mid week system. Needless to say, we’re not overly optimistic on the wetter solutions as of now, but will closely monitor to see if more consistency develops down the road.

As a whole, the pattern continues to look drier than normal over the next couple weeks overall.

Week 1

Week 2

While guidance continues to look warm into early and mid October, I have to raise an eyebrow based on the latest teleconnection trends. We note the EPO trending negative while the PNA pops positive. These drivers should force a colder look Week 2 into Week 3 and I would suspect guidance will cool significantly as we get closer.

Further down the road, it’ll be important to keep tabs on western Pacific typhoon activity and the Madden Julian Oscillation. There are signs we may finally start to see the MJO become more of a player in the pattern towards mid October. Time will tell.

In the meantime, keep a close eye on guidance Week 2 into Week 3 as this will be the first real test case to revisit so far this meteorological fall season…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/22/long-range-outlook-into-october-reason-to-be-suspicious-of-the-warm-look/

Sep 07

Long Range Chatter; NEW JMA Data On Winter…

Updated 09.07.23 @ 7:15a

September has opened significantly warmer than normal across the northern Plains and to a lesser extent into the southern Plains and along the northern tier. Indianapolis is running 5° above average through the 6th. We’ll chip away some at those toasty anomalies over the course of the next week, but still anticipate the month finishing slightly warmer than normal as a whole. We’re also running dry- more than half an inch below normal to open the month.

As we look ahead to the upcoming couple of weeks, the combination of the Madden Julian Oscillation sneaking into Phase 4, combined with a strongly positive PNA should help lead to more of a trough across the eastern portion of the country.

The NEW JMA Weeklies show that trough and associated cooler pattern (not cold by any means, but instead slightly below normal overall) taking up shop in the Week 1 and Week 2 time period below.

Week 1

Week 2

The latest ensemble guidance is also on board with the more seasonal look, especially compared to how the month opened.

Week 1

Week 2

Overall, the dry start to the month is anticipated to persist through the remainder of September as a whole.

Jumping ahead, the JMA seasonal data also updated today. In short, the model shows a warm fall giving way to a warm start to the winter before potentially taking a colder mid and late winter turn. Still far too early to put much stock in the specifics from this distance. The next couple of months will be very telling with the migration (or lack thereof) of warmest central PAC sea surface temperatures along with modeled trends deeper into the winter. Long ways to go; stay tuned…

JMA meteorological (Dec. through Feb.) winter idea:

Upper air pattern
Temperature anomalies
Precipitation anomalies

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/07/long-range-chatter-new-jma-data-on-winter/

Aug 31

VIDEO: Quiet Labor Day Weekend With Moderating Temperatures…

Updated 08.31.23 @ 7:45a The extended stretch of calm, quiet conditions will allows us to start looking ahead to the upcoming winter in earnest over the upcoming several days. We’ll…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/31/video-quiet-labor-day-weekend-with-moderating-temperatures/

Aug 27

Endless Summer As We Navigate The Initial Month Of Meteorological Fall…

Updated 08.27.23 @ 6:51a

We’re only a few days away from meteorological fall. Despite what the calendar says, Mother Nature will provide “bonus” heat and plenty of dry times as we rumble through the next few weeks.

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) looks to “wake up” and amplify into the notorious warm phases for September.

The PNA (Pacific North American pattern) is going to crash negative and fits right into the warm pattern driver theme.

Medium and long range modeling shows the upper ridge building and expanding northeast with time over the next couple weeks. Unseasonably hot weather will accompany this pattern evolution.

Widespread drier than normal conditions should also prevail through the upcoming few weeks.

Even as we progress into the final few days of the month, extended long range guidance maintains the warm to hot theme.

It’s really not until we get to October that the pattern should begin to change in more significant fashion and make up for lost time with respect to cool, crisp air…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/27/endless-summer-as-we-navigate-the-initial-month-of-meteorological-fall/

Aug 23

Dinnertime Rambles: Labor Day Weekend Chatter; MJO Rumblings…

Updated 08.23.23 @ 6:09p I. Hottest conditions banked up against our far western counties today where temperatures climbed into the middle 90s. Heat indices topped the lower 100s in the…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/23/dinnertime-rambles-labor-day-weekend-chatter-mjo-rumblings/

Aug 22

VIDEO: Heat & Humidity Grab Headlines For Now; Scattered Strong Late Week Storm Potential As Heat Breaks?

Updated 08.22.23 4:45a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/22/video-heat-scattered-strong-late-week-storm-potential-as-heat-breaks/

Jul 30

Sunday Morning Rambles: Much Less Humid Start To The Week; Updated Thoughts On The August Pattern…

Updated 07.30.23 @ 11:25a

I. We can already feel a difference in the nature of the airmass this morning, but there’s a much bigger push of dry air inbound tonight. By Monday morning, dew points across central Indiana will fall into the 40s and 50s- a far cry from the oppressive “jungle-like” dew points from last week. Talk about a breath of fresh air. The good news in this pleasant airmass will hold through the middle of the week.

A refreshing air mass will filter into the state tonight.

II. While we can’t totally rule out a shower this afternoon, most of the period will remain rain-free between now and Wednesday. Look for plentiful sunshine through this period as well.

Rain and storm chances will return towards the latter part of the week. While we’re not expecting any sort of washout, it’ll be a good idea to have a Plan B in mind from Thursday through the weekend in the event a storm cluster threatens from time to time.

III. Over the next couple weeks, the primary pattern drivers continue to look like a combo of the EPO and PNA- both of which will, for the most part, be in favorable phases to deliver seasonal to slightly cooler than normal conditions across our neck of the woods. At times, it’s appeared like the MJO will start to amplify, but that hasn’t been the case and doesn’t appear to be a big player in our pattern through mid August, at least. Bottom line, our idea is that August features seasonal temperatures, as a whole, with slightly above normal rainfall throughout central Indiana. (For perspective, the average high at IND in August is 84.3° with an average low of 65°. On average, we pick up nearly 3.5″ of rain during any given August).

The most anomalous and long-lasting heat should continue to be featured across Plains and points west with coolest anomalies across the Northeast.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/30/sunday-morning-rambles-much-less-humid-start-to-the-week-updated-thoughts-on-the-august-pattern/

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