Updated 01.22.24 @ 6:23p
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Category: MJO
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/22/video-short-and-long-term-ideas-any-thoughts-of-winters-demise-premature-in-our-opinion/
Jan 19
Long Range Update: Pattern Evolution Through The Remainder Of Winter; Open To Meteorological Spring…
Updated 01.19.24 @ 7:35a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/19/long-range-update-pattern-evolution-through-the-remainder-of-winter-open-to-meteorological-spring/
Jan 12
Prolonged Period Of Bitterness, But A Change Is On The Horizon…
Updated 01.12.24 @ 12:18p
The upcoming 10-days is a case of cold and if you believe some of the guidance, even colder (next weekend). Multiple nights below zero and dangerous wind chill values of 20° to 30° below zero are on tap at times during this period. You know that we’re interested to see if we meet our respective targets. It’s not just the magnitude of the cold, but the duration and widespread nature, as shown over the upcoming 10-day temperature anomalies from last night’s European ensemble.
But milder changes are on the horizon as we rumble through the warmer phases (at least this time of year) of the MJO and see some temporary trends within our teleconnection suite (AO, NAO, EPO, and PNA) that favor a period of much less harsh, and even milder than normal conditions developing by the last week of the month.
After our frigid stretch, temperatures even only a few degrees above normal will feel like a heatwave.
The hunch here is that we return to another cold stretch as we rumble into February. Long range guidance shows “part 2” of our high latitude blocking event and the thought here is this is a byproduct of a combination of sea surface temperature (SST) configuration in the northwest ATL, the current state of our Nino, as well as the SST configuration in the central/ northern PAC. At any rate, the alignment between teleconnections and, of course, the MJO rolling into the colder phases supports this idea. Let us worry about that and you enjoy the late month “mild-up!” Heavens knows after these next couple weeks, you will have earned it!
We’ll continue to keep tabs on the threat of snow over the next couple weeks. Things can, obviously, change but as of now I’m not seeing any hefty snow threats for central Indiana. The one feature that does potentially require watching is out there towards the end of next week, but the overall fast paced flow should prevent this from deepening into anything overly significant. At least that’s the way we see it now.
We’ll continue to keep close tabs on short-term trends but feel good with what we have out there concerning rain/ snow amounts, timing of the transition, and damaging wind potential.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/12/prolonged-period-of-bitterness-but-a-change-is-on-the-horizon/
Jan 08
VIDEO: Memorable Winter Pattern The Next Couple Weeks; Longer Range Musings…
Updated 01.08.24 @ 7:54a One storm after another will impact our region through the next couple weeks, eventually followed by bitterly cold, arctic air. We’ll have to take each storm…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/08/video-memorable-winter-pattern-the-next-couple-weeks-longer-range-musings/
Jan 04
VIDEO: Multiple Impactful Storms Into Mid Month; Discussing Overnight Ensemble Trends…
Updated 01.04.24 @ 6:46a Enjoy the last couple of quiet days while you have them. Skies will slowly brighten later today, but otherwise anticipate mostly cloudy and seasonably cold conditions.…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/04/video-multiple-impactful-storms-into-mid-month-discussing-overnight-ensemble-trends/
Jan 02
VIDEO: Tracking 2 Storms In The Short-Term; Long Range Pattern Rumblings- Both For And Against Sustainable Cold…
Updated 01.02.24 @ 7:50a The next few days are quiet and will allow us to catch our breath ahead of a blitz of storm systems that start this weekend and…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/02/video-tracking-2-storms-in-the-short-term-long-range-pattern-rumblings-both-for-and-against-sustainable-cold/
Jan 01
Couple Thoughts On This Weekend And Next Week’s Storms; Colder Trends Build Long Term…
Updated 01.01.24 @ 6:41p
I hope you and your family are enjoying an incredible New Year’s Day! What a game we have on our hands at halftime in the Rose Bowl.
I post this in flight back to home base from ushering in the new year in the beautiful Berkshire mountains. Our regularly scheduled client video discussions will return tomorrow morning. I trust you’ve been following along with both short and long term pattern ideas daily over the past week.
The immediate term opens with quiet and unseasonably calm conditions while the end of the upcoming 10-day stretch will end much colder. The transition between start and finish will turn much more hectic around these parts as we track not one, but two storm systems between this weekend and early next week. While there’s no doubt we’ll trend colder than average by Day 10, questions abound with just how cold we go. Should we get a snowpack down, subzero is on the table.
Speaking of the aforementioned more “hectic” pattern, this kicks into gear over the weekend. While modeling likes more of a suppressed track at this distance, thinking here is that guidance will start to pick up on a more organized northern piece of energy, or surface low reflection, that will accompany the primary Gulf low. I suspect a secondary, organized, shield of precipitation into the OHV region Friday night into Saturday. Will that be enough to put our neck of the woods into a winter storm risk during this timeframe? Too early to call at this distance, but given where the PNA, EPO, and Greenland Block that will be starting to mature, I’d recommend keeping an eye on what will likely be an eventual click or two northwest as the week goes along. It’s likely either a “snow or no” type situation here with storm #1, as opposed to having to worry about rain or mixing issues.
As for storm #2 early next week, our early idea takes the primary low into the OHV before a secondary low “takes over” along the eastern seaboard. The energy transfer likely brings just enough mild air north into the central Ohio Valley to create more of a rain to snow type scenario, locally. The coldest air of the season so far will likely follow in the 10-15 day.
Speaking of the 10-15 day, the look above is an absolute textbook upper air pattern not only for cold, but continued opportunities of winter weather here as we rumble into mid-January. By this point, other long term pattern drivers, such as the NAO and AO (of course to go along with the MJO, PNA, and EPO) will be factored in to where we head not only for the 2nd half of the month, but into late winter and spring. Recent trends certainly suggest the colder options are gaining traction. Today’s European Weekly update reflects a more persistent stretch of high latitude blocking I can remember o/ the past few winters. This ups the ante for a stormy stretch into and through the heart of winter. Given the longer term NAO and MJO look, I’d suspect the colder threat (relative to normal) is on the table into spring this year.
Much more in the AM! Make it a great evening!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/01/couple-thoughts-on-this-weekend-and-next-weeks-storms-colder-trends-build-long-term/
Dec 31
Thoughts On The First Couple Weeks Of The Year (And Beyond)…
Updated 12.31.23 @ 8:40a
The MJO is rolling right into the notorious cold (for this time of year) phase 3 as we open up the new year.
The composite analog for phase 3 in January from an upper air and surface temperature anomaly standpoint:
Ensemble guidance shows the widespread colder than normal temperatures overspreading the country. Like clockwork, this is almost identical to the Phase 3 analog above.
After a quiet week, we’ll watch 2 storms in the 5-10 day period. The first comes along next weekend. While still far too early to get detailed, this one does have potential to serve up some wintry mischief to the Ohio Valley, including central Indiana.
The second storm follows and it’s behind this feature that more of a truly arctic air mass will get involved in our pattern.
The pattern will stay busy as the arctic air presses in. At the same time, note the Greenland block beginning to form. Winter weather enthusiasts have to be chomping at the bit by that 10-15 day look. Needless to say, we can expect a rapidly expanding snow pack across the Lower 48 over the next couple weeks.
Thereafter, all eyes will remain on the MJO. Do we roll into the “null phase,” such as what the European suggests or swing through the traditionally mild/ warm phases such as the American guidance portrays? Stay tuned…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/31/thoughts-on-the-first-couple-weeks-of-the-year-and-beyond/
Dec 28
Snowy At Times For Some; Updated Long Range Thoughts…
Updated 12.29.23 @ 7:09a
Updated with European Weekly thoughts 12/29/23 @ 7:09a
There’s no reason to change any of our thoughts concerning how things play out over the next 24 hours with our upper level low pressure system. That idea from yesterday is available here. In short, it still appears as if parts of west-central Indiana are still greatest at risk of seeing light wet snow accumulation (of course some of our friends in southwest Indiana are already enjoying waking up to snow on the ground this morning).
As we look ahead to the upcoming 3-4 weeks (will add to this post later tonight after having a chance to see the updated Euro Weekly teleconnections), it appears as if we’re heading right towards more of a predominant El Niño regime with an active southern storm track and most persistent cold, relative to average, taking up residence across the southern tier. The updated JMA Weekly model portrays this best over the course of the upcoming 28 days:
Modeling continues to struggle with the MJO evolution over the upcoming 2 week period. While this doesn’t impact the idea of colder times in the short-term period, it does have great implications beyond mid-January. The kind of amplitude shown off the American guidance (image 1 below) would threaten to deliver a much warmer than average period, locally, beyond mid-month. Meanwhile, the European (image 2 below) continues to suggest a collapse into the neutral phase.
The 2 primary other pattern drivers include the PNA and EPO through mid-January. Beyond this point, we’ll start to incorporate the likes of the NAO and AO into our forecast (hence another reason why we’re interested in seeing how the Euro Weeklies show this later today).
Simply based on how the PNA/ EPO combo is forecast, the first week would open with cooler temperatures transitioning into the region and then we would likely see moderation in the week 2 to early week 3 timeframe.
Week 1
Week 2
While we’re certainly transitioning to a cooler and more active pattern over the upcoming couple weeks, compared to where we’ve been to this point in meteorological winter, it’s not yet to a point where anything looks excessively cold or, for that matter, snowy.
That doesn’t mean that there won’t be a couple storms to track that could offer up some meaningful winter weather potential here, but I just don’t see a sustained cold, snowy pattern taking foot through mid-January. Beyond that point, we’ll have to monitor which more extreme solution plays out. Based on everything going on by that point, it’s still likely to be a situation where either more persistent (and significant) cold or warmth develops.
European Weekly update 12/29/23
The new European Weeklies show a warmer option for the 2nd half of January, but contradict their own teleconnections during this time frame. The model goes to a strong negative AO, positive PNA, negative NAO, and a neutral EPO. Of course we’ll have to see what the MJO ultimately ends up doing but that combo strongly argues for the colder option for the 2nd half of January.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/28/snowy-at-times-for-some-updated-long-range-thoughts/
Dec 23
A Tale Of 2 Potential Extremes For Late January And An Early Lean…
Updated 12.23.23 @ 3:04p
The stage has been set for some time concerning late December and the first week to 10 days of January. There are no changes on our ideas concerning that timeframe. In short, a colder (certainly from where we’ve been as of late, and slightly below the average), and stormy evolution sums up that period.
The timeframe now in question has to do with mid and late January, after what sure looks to be a 5-7 day period of moderation. Unlike what we’ve outlined for late December and early January, the second half of January is likely to feature more in the way of a case of “extreme and nothing in between” type pattern. As outlined in Thursday’s long range post, up to this point, modeling has a couple of different takes on the aforementioned period. The American guidance suggests a repeat of well above normal temperatures and a general lack of winter weather looms with an MJO look poised for the classic warm phases.
You likely don’t need us to remind you of January and February last year. Indianapolis ran a whopping 8.1° above normal through the first couple months of the year.
The reason? An amplified MJO rolling slowly through the Phases 3, 4, and 5 before getting into the colder phases late February and into March.
Back to present day, the American guidance, though slowly backing off from the aggressive idea from a couple days ago, suggests this is once again on the table. Should that come to fruition, mid January would feature well above normal temperatures yet again.
As the great Lee Corso famously coined, “not so fast, my friend.” The European guidance collapses the MJO into the null, or neural phase, before getting into the warm phases. While a period of moderation still will likely follow the chilly open to January, should the Euro idea be correct (and we suspect it is- more on that below), an eventual recycling through the cold phases would likely ensue late January into early February.
By this point, guidance is also beginning to align on other important pattern drivers. Remember, by mid January, we really start to lean in on what the NAO and AO are doing. That’s certainly not to say we don’t pay attention to the PNA and EPO- just that the AO/ NAO can have greater influence on the regime into early spring. Of course, the MJO remains king.
What’s interesting is that each respective “driver” positions itself in a manner that argues cold should rule during the late January and early February period.
Should that MJO circle back into the traditional cold phases, look out. The window will open for a period of true arctic air getting involved with the pattern given the other pattern drivers above. – Target period would be late January (after Jan. 15th) and into early February.
Given what’s out there for the taking, it’s certainly not a pattern for the faint of heart. Buckle up!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/23/a-tale-of-2-potential-extremes-for-late-january-and-an-early-lean/